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Kimmel returns Tuesday

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Meanwhile a rather salient piece on how the network-affilate model is dying in real time:
www.hollywoodreporter.com

Jimmy Kimmel Was Just the Opening Salvo In a TV Affiliate Insurrection

Disney CEO Bob Iger eventually shut down a gambit by Nexstar and Sinclair to sideline the Trump-baiting late night comic — but local broadcasters are gearing up for a much bigger fight.
www.hollywoodreporter.com www.hollywoodreporter.com
Pull quote for emphasis-
Increasingly, the frustrations are boiling over. As the FCC has weighed whether to raise ownership caps, affiliate groups repping the ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox station owners joined the NAB in sending an Aug. 22 letter to the commission, making their case and dismissing their “partners” as “Big Media Conglomerates.”

“Internet media companies and Big Media Conglomerates from the East and West Coasts have been permitted to gain massive scale and scope at the expense of local broadcasters, all while the government has prohibited broadcasters from achieving the same,” they wrote. “They have no interest in serving local communities or becoming a vital part of the fabric of America’s cities and towns.”
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Nathan Obral said:
I wouldn't be surprised if Channel 6 Action News is fully moved to a FAST and Disney disposes of the paper that contains WPVI's broadcast license. Ditto with Eyewitness News in NYC.
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Again, not for some time, which applies in the Sinclair/Nexstar cases. Yes we’ll get there. It’s not in 2026. Laying the groundwork phase; execution isn’t going to happen right away and it won’t be one tiff that sets off that chain reaction until they are fully prepared. And people do business with other people they don’t particularly like all the time—because it’s business.
 
Don CT said:
The NBA finals are on ABC Exclusively.
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That will change next year:
  1. Key Highlights of the NBA Broadcast on ABC in 2026
    New Media Agreements: The NBA has renewed its partnership with The Walt Disney Company, NBCUniversal, and Amazon, allowing ABC/ESPN to broadcast NBA games from the 2025-26 season through the 2035-36 season. This agreement significantly expands the number of games available on broadcast television.
    2
    Game Coverage: ABC will air approximately 80 NBA regular-season games each season, including more than 20 games on ABC and up to 60 games on ESPN. This includes marquee events like the NBA Finals, Christmas Day games, and the final day of the regular season.
 
TheBigA said:
That will change next year:
  1. Key Highlights of the NBA Broadcast on ABC in 2026
    New Media Agreements: The NBA has renewed its partnership with The Walt Disney Company, NBCUniversal, and Amazon, allowing ABC/ESPN to broadcast NBA games from the 2025-26 season through the 2035-36 season. This agreement significantly expands the number of games available on broadcast television.
    2
    Game Coverage: ABC will air approximately 80 NBA regular-season games each season, including more than 20 games on ABC and up to 60 games on ESPN. This includes marquee events like the NBA Finals, Christmas Day games, and the final day of the regular season.
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Expands the games on broadcast television.
 
AbrahamJSimpson said:
Again, not for some time, which applies in the Sinclair/Nexstar cases. Yes we’ll get there. It’s not in 2026.
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It will be in August and December of 2026 when the contracts for both Sinclair and Nexstar, respectively, lapse without renewal. Much sooner than we think.
AbrahamJSimpson said:
Laying the groundwork phase; execution isn’t going to happen right away and it won’t be one tiff that sets off that chain reaction until they are fully prepared.
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Disney is a billion dollar corporation that freaking rewrote US copyright law. They would have the marketing budget and muscle to get people on streaming exclusively. Already streaming is getting the core 25–54 demo Madison Avenue wants. OTA isn't.
AbrahamJSimpson said:
And people do business with other people they don’t particularly like all the time—because it’s business.
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Abe, I love ya, but it is insane to think that Disney would ever do business again with two hostile broadcast chains, one of which doesn't even want ABC anyway (Nexstar). And especially when both became agents of a hostile FCC chairman.
 
Nathan Obral said:
Who says there would need to be replacement affiliates? It's obvious ABC is in the early stages of sunsetting regular operations as a network and folding into Hulu and Disney+.
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That would leave over 200 broadcast stations high and dry. Some will inevitably go away.

I look for OTA TV in the next 10 to 20 years to dwindle down into a handful of news-intensive local stations, possibly with some generic national content and other local origination where there is a need for it, with the networks becoming more and more delivered OTT with a subscription charge. The OTA TV spectrum may also be whittled down even further, with spectrum forklifted onto mobile services.
 
IM42A said:
The OTA TV spectrum may also be whittled down even further, with spectrum forklifted onto mobile services.
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Maybe, maybe not. The lower the operating frequency, the less effective 5G wireless service is.

As it stands, the lowest feasible band starts at 600MHz, and that's right around channel 36, where TV spectrum ends. You can't go much lower on the UHF band, and even if frequencies down at 470MHz (channel 14) could be made to work for some level of service, you certainly would not be able to use the VHF TV spectrum.

And the wireless companies aren't even close to maximizing the use of the spectrum they have already: There is considerable available spectrum above 3.1GHz that is unused; a CTIA study three years ago estimated that there is more than twice as much unused spectrum in those higher frequencies than all of the current used spectrum across all wireless carriers.

 
K.M. Richards said:
Maybe, maybe not. The lower the operating frequency, the less effective 5G wireless service is.

As it stands, the lowest feasible band starts at 600MHz, and that's right around channel 36, where TV spectrum ends. You can't go much lower on the UHF band, and even if frequencies down at 470MHz (channel 14) could be made to work for some level of service, you certainly would not be able to use the VHF TV spectrum.

And the wireless companies aren't even close to maximizing the use of the spectrum they have already: There is considerable available spectrum above 3.1GHz that is unused; a CTIA study three years ago estimated that there is more than twice as much unused spectrum in those higher frequencies than all of the current used spectrum across all wireless carriers.

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Good information, thanks. Maybe if TV stations start going out of business, they can reallocate the remaining channels so that they're not so crowded together in some places.

Here in Columbia SC, six miles from the WZRB transmitter, I still have issues due to WJZY being a bit over 80 miles away on RF 25. WZRB agreed to accept interference from WJZY (making it kind of a de facto Class A station, even though it is licensed for full-power and runs 155 kW ERP, you'd never know it from their contours). They really need to be on another RF channel.
 
IM42A said:
Good information, thanks. Maybe if TV stations start going out of business, they can reallocate the remaining channels so that they're not so crowded together in some places.
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I never argue with survival of the fittest, where business is concerned. Good thought process there.
 
K.M. Richards said:
As it stands, the lowest feasible band starts at 600MHz, and that's right around channel 36, where TV spectrum ends. You can't go much lower on the UHF band, and even if frequencies down at 470MHz (channel 14) could be made to work for some level of service
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Another reason they will never acquire spectrum much below 600 MHz is because 460-470 MHz, plus 470-520 MHz in many areas (the UHF-T band), is a rat's nest of police, fire, medical, feds, and business two-way land-mobile radio repeater networks and simplex frequencies.

Prying those users loose might be possible if they were offered spectrum elsewhere in exchange. But because moving countless business users off their real estate would be like trying to herd cats -- and because moving the government users would happen at molasses-like speeds and require multiple political cascades of bond measures or legislative funding to finance countless system rebuilds -- the cellular companies would have to be completely insane to try.
 
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Nathan Obral said:
It will be in August and December of 2026 when the contracts for both Sinclair and Nexstar, respectively, lapse without renewal. Much sooner than we think.
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Apologies, the sentence wasn't clear. Understanding the contracts come up, totally get that. I meant that simply exiting having broadcast outlets, albeit owned by others, is not going to be in 2026. They're building that foundation, not at the pull-the-trigger stage.The economics aren't there yet. Decently soon, not that soon.
Nathan Obral said:
Disney is a billion dollar corporation that freaking rewrote US copyright law. They would have the marketing budget and muscle to get people on streaming exclusively. Already streaming is getting the core 25–54 demo Madison Avenue wants. OTA isn't.
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They absolutely have means. But consumers are slow beasts. No one is saying the trends aren't clear. Just that it's not on the 12 month horizon. It's going to take more than just 12 months of steady, heavy, near non-stop marketing to get people ready. Habits are slow to change.
Nathan Obral said:
Abe, I love ya, but it is insane to think that Disney would ever do business again with two hostile broadcast chains, one of which doesn't even want ABC anyway (Nexstar). And especially when both became agents of a hostile FCC chairman.
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People who don't especially like each other do business, because money outweighs grudges. Yes there's the occasional mercurial type who puts passion over business, but more go the other way. Nor to say the Mouse House can't wield the bigger stick and get some concessions. But we've seen people hold their nose and do what needs doing.

If there were a slew of viable options, sure. But as we've documented and discussed into the ground, consolidation has left those options few and far between. With the economy in precarious shape at best, and 2026 quite possibly heralding a deep recession, leaving even scraps on the table is less likely. (And I know that calling those companies scraps is an insult to scraps.)
 
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