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Colbert Interview in GQ

Essential pull-quote:

People perceive me as this sort of lefty figure; I think I’m more conservative than people think. I just happen to be talking about a government in extremis. And so what I’m giving you is my reaction video to the day. And my reaction video is like The Scream, in a way, but with jokes. So that makes me perceived as more left necessarily than I am because I’m not sure what other reaction would be an honest one. It’s hard to have a balanced reaction to the idea of troops on streets of a city that actually is not undergoing an invasion.


 
It's a good interview. I put him and others in the category of Will Rogers and Mark Twain. These are people who look at things as they are and comment on them. They do it to entertain. They're not journalists. They're not politicians. They're not running for office. They're just making observations. No different from Bill Maher or Joe Rogan. But people want to ascribe certain motivations to them. You're either entertained, or you're not. The president isn't entertained by anyone who criticizes him. It's been that way since Obama targeted him during the correspondent's dinner. That's just the way he is. Don't make fun of him or he'll bite you. Now he's the president. As Toby Keith asked: How do you like me now? Network TV used to be a safe place to do this. It isn't anymore, because the president has threatened to take away your licenses. That's the world we live in. We have to live in it for 3 more years.

The relevant part of the interview for this board is the discussion about the changing economic climate for broadcast TV. None of this is new. Bob Iger talked about it several years ago. Linear real time TV is in decline. You will begin to see a lot of the problems we've been experiencing in radio during the past ten years. I think Ellison knows this, and he's able to see it in ways the Redstones couldn't. We'll see how he responds. He can do what Iger talked about, and sell off the broadcast part of his business. Or he can do what Iger is doing now, which is using the content he creates and presenting it on multiple platforms. Last night, I watched ESPN on ABC. So perhaps that means Comedy Channel on CBS. The main thing we know is that the status quo isn't going to work. The future won't be like the past. Here's what Colbert said about that:

Television’s in huge trouble. Maybe David Ellison [CEO of Paramount Skydance] will fix everything. No, no. Seriously. Maybe he will. Maybe he’ll fix everything. But it’s clear that television is in a lot of transitions. It’s been going on for a long time. But that’s not my end of the business. My end of the business is the jokes.

The business model of ad-supported TV is the problem. TV needs to have multiple revenue streams. That's also what I believe about radio. Some people are willing to pay for TV. That's changing the whole business. We see it at the Emmy Awards. Colbert was one of the few shows on broadcast TV that won an Emmy. Everything else that night was on streaming channels. That's where the future is. Paramount can play in that world too.
 
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Could Colbert do a high budget 4X night a week show from a Broadway theater on youtube? Or does the format just not work anymore when it's more likely to be viewed the next morning by the demo advertisers are after?
 
He's already on YouTube. 10 million subscribers

That's why CBS's claim that the show is losing $40MM a year is B.S. Nowhere are they revealing how much revenue comes in from Youtube for inserting all those commercials into all those streams. None of the broadcast companies reveal that data.

Let's play What If for a moment...

If we guesstimate that Youtube pays each of these networks $1 per thousand streams -- an absurdly low number, IMO -- then that's $10K per spot. There's probably a dozen spots inserted into my stream of Colbert's monologue alone, which would be $120K per monologue viewed to the end. Multiply that by 200 programs per year and you have $24 Million per year. Just for the monologue. Plus, what about all those other clips of Meanwhile, or Sounds of Science, or guest interviews, or musical acts? Think that might aggregate up to another $24 Mill per year? If not, pick your own numbers and multiply it out. One way or the other, this has to be a significant revenue stream for the network and the program. Same story with Kimmel's show, or Fallon's, or Meyers', or The Daily Show. If you claim a show's losing money, is it losing money after all that other ancillary revenue?

And I haven't even mentioned the other non-traditional revenue, like product placements or branded merchandise (caps, tee-shirts, jackets, coffee mugs, whatever). It may be relatively small potatoes, but it can't be too small or they wouldn't bother. Based on the last time I was in the gift shop outside the Ed Sullivan, or the one in 30 Rock, they're not exactly selling that dreck at cost.
 
That's why CBS's claim that the show is losing $40MM a year is B.S. Nowhere are they revealing how much revenue comes in from Youtube for inserting all those commercials into all those streams. None of the broadcast companies reveal that data.

However, Colbert's production company likely knows. Here's my view on it: He's monetizing his content on socials. But when you do that, the content creator only makes a percentage of the ad revenue. The majority of the money goes to YouTube. So it's a content sharing arrangement. They would make 100% of the money if the content was on a Paramount platform. There are rules about creator advertising on YouTube.

We've discussed this in other places. The finances for Late Show are based on the 1990s. Things have changed. If you notice, Saturday Night Live uses its content to create prime time specials. That's another way to merchandise existing content. The way the Colbert show is done, it's very timely, and doesn't lend itself to anthology production. They need to develop ways to make money multiple times from the same content. They may be doing that on YouTube, but they need to multiply that if they want to keep up with the losses on the broadcast side.
 
That's why CBS's claim that the show is losing $40MM a year is B.S. Nowhere are they revealing how much revenue comes in from Youtube for inserting all those commercials into all those streams. None of the broadcast companies reveal that data.
My read of the available financial data is that CBS is losing $40 million a year for the total show*, not for the individual distribution channels of the show. In other words, it appears that the loss comes after adding in all revenue models are added in.

* That means all revenue from the show, including shared streaming income, ad placement show merchandise,
 
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