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WB+Netflix=$82.7 billion shocker!



Here is more to the response of the proposed Netflix/WB Merger note in the OP the deal is estimated to be finalized sometime in 2026.

Netflix said it expects to see $2 billion-$3 billion in cost savings annually by the third year after the WB deal closes. The company expects the transaction to be accretive to earnings per share by year two.

The cash and stock transaction is valued at $27.75 per share of WBD. The deal is expected to close in the next 12-18 months, the companies said, after the previously announced separation of WBD’s TV networks division, Discovery Global, into a new publicly traded company, which is now expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026.
 
How many mega mergers have worked out long term.

ExxonMobil (1998)

JP Morgan/Chase (2000)

Anheuser-Busch/InBev/SAB Miller (2015)

Heinz/Kraft (2016)

Verizon/Vodafone (2014)

Pfizer/Warner Lambert (2000)

Dow/DuPont (2015)

Glaxo/SmithKline (2000)

Royal Dutch Petroleum/Shell (2004)


It's trickier to do in entertainment because technology is upending everything and changing listener/viewer/consumer habits, but I think you'd also have to add:

Disney/21st Century Fox (2019)

Disney/ABC (1996)

Comcast/NBCUniversal (2009)
 
ExxonMobil (1998)

JP Morgan/Chase (2000)

Anheuser-Busch/InBev/SAB Miller (2015)

Heinz/Kraft (2016)

Verizon/Vodafone (2014)

Pfizer/Warner Lambert (2000)

Dow/DuPont (2015)

Glaxo/SmithKline (2000)

Royal Dutch Petroleum/Shell (2004)


It's trickier to do in entertainment because technology is upending everything and changing listener/viewer/consumer habits, but I think you'd also have to add:

Disney/21st Century Fox (2019)

Disney/ABC (1996)

Comcast/NBCUniversal (2009)
Heinz/Kraft are splitting up actually…
 
Today will be remembered as the day Netflix jumped the shark, succumbing the to the toxic temptation of Wall Street's merger-and-acquisition culture, eventually to be buried in the bankruptcy crypt of debt while its CEO laughs all the way to the bank with his unjust reward.
 
Today will be remembered as the day Netflix jumped the shark, succumbing the to the toxic temptation of Wall Street's merger-and-acquisition culture, eventually to be buried in the bankruptcy crypt of debt while its CEO laughs all the way to the bank with his unjust reward.

Maybe. Maybe not.

It's one hell of a lot of money, but for it, Netflix gets:

New subscribers (out of HBO Max's 180 million subscribers, some will already have Netflix, so less than that), which gets them subscription revenue and allows them to increase their ad rates (which is where the good stuff is these days).

Reduces the number of subscription options, which may reduce churn (subscribers cancelling to use the money for a competitor).

Ownership of Warners' film and television library, a significant resource that it can use itself or license to competitors and generate significant revenue.

Ownership of a very rich catalog of intellectual property (Harry Potter, the DC Universe, Dune, Game of Thrones, Friends, Looney Tunes, Lord of the Rings, The Matrix), with seemingly endless licensing possibilities.

A studio that, if Netflix doesn't screw it up, does something Netflix hasn't been able to do---make global monster box office movies and has the ability to create new ongoing franchises.

Universal and Paramount at a significant disadvantage when it comes to the power and value of their combined film studios and streaming (Disney's the only one that's close).

And, today I learned that Warners and Disney have been working on an Artificial Intelligence project that might be the future---or not, but we'll see:


Every day is anything can happen day---but Netflix' bankruptcy is no more a sure thing than its roaring success with this move.
 
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The Ellisons have curried favor with Trump while Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos has long donated to Democratic presidential candidates and famously held a fundraiser for President Obama. Netflix also gave the Obamas a content deal. So read the tea leaves as you wish but my bet is on an adversarial antitrust review by Pam Bondi's DOJ.
 
The Ellisons have curried favor with Trump while Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos has long donated to Democratic presidential candidates and famously held a fundraiser for President Obama. Netflix also gave the Obamas a content deal. So read the tea leaves as you wish but my bet is on an adversarial antitrust review by Pam Bondi's DOJ.
Yes, DJT and his allies will find anything this stop the merger. Personally, they’ll find ways to sabotage it for no apparent reason but to make sure that only Ellison acquires WB outright (Trump hopefully that happens so he can reimagined CNN into a MAGA-friendly network, not knowing it’s not part of the Netflix deal).
 
Keep in mind that liberal democrats also oppose this deal. In fact, it is typically liberals who oppose any consolidation like this.



 


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