I'm going to break my self-imposed rule about not speculating.
If anyone steps up for 560, I think it'll be Bott.
Here's why I think that.
- Bott runs AM stations. I don't think they've acquired any lately, but they haven't gotten rid of the ones they have. Counterargument: all their AMs (11 total) have either FM translators or full-power FM complements (the latter in Kansas City, St. Louis, and Nashville). It would be very difficult for a new entrant to get even a translator in the Bay Area.
- This would be one of their few opportunities to break into the Bay Area market, and on a fairly decent AM signal. Corollary: There are no FM opportunities for a new entrant unless Cumulus gets really desperate and has to sell KSAN(FM). Minor irony there in that Dick Bott's father-in-law used to own KSAN(AM) (KEST since 1971), and Dick Bott was the manager before he bought KDON (point #4 below) in Salinas.
- In its regulatory filings, Cumulus has made oblique references to negotations for KZAC, using wording that's different from the boilerplate language that they've used in other STA extensions. So I think something's cooking, even if at a slow boil.
- Dick Bott spent time in the Bay Area, and owned KDON in Salinas from 1957-60. Sure, that's a long time ago, but there might be just a little more of an incentive to get into the Bay Area for them than might otherwise be the case. It's a company that seems cognizant of its history.
- Counterargument: possible overlap with the programming on KFAX. I'm not conversant with this type of programming, so I don't know how much of a problem duplication presents for the producers of teaching-style programs.
- Another counterargument: any sale wouldn't include the transmitter site. That said, at least it's one not owned by the major tower companies.
- There is precedent in the Family Radio trade that brought KEAR to 610. Yes, that was 20 years ago and Family was then based in the Bay Area. But it is a data point.
I'll concede that I think this is a long shot. There are still 3+ months to go before
something definitive has to happen with the 560 frequency. But turning in the license gets Cumulus nothing. What we don't know is how motivated a seller Cumulus might be.
Edit: I'll admit that I was also ignoring the possibility that Bott's noncommercial arm could acquire an NCE FM. But there are few good choices of those in the Bay Area.