Pab Sungenis said:
You can't use WNTP's non-subscribing as an excuse for their non-existent ratings. They were under 1.0 before Arbitron stopped publishing non-subscribers.
Let me try again: WNTP doesn't care about their ratings relative to WPHT or IQ or anyone else. They sell their existing lineup to those who want to listen. They do this with all of their secular talkers, and Salem is a profitable venture.
Certainly NTP will lose listeners when Mark Levin moves over to WWIQ, and I don't think the replacement show, Steve Deace is going to outpoll whatver IQ runs. But their game plan won't change due to IQ entering the market.
WPHT will take the hit. They had Limbaugh and the awareness he brings to any station that runs him. Now they don't, and they have nothing of note to replace him with. Smerconish hasn't been a factor since he stripped himself of his conservative persona to position himself for syndication (and guest slots on MSNBC) as a "moderate." Dom listeners who don't care about Limbaugh may stick around for Smerconish just because he's on the same frequency, but that's a small audience compared to those who actively seek out Limbaugh. And once they've found him, they're more likely to stay put for Hannity & Levin than switch back to 1210 for an unknown. Eventually, they'll do more listening to 106.9 and 1210 will become a secondary station or be forgotten altogether outside of mornings (IQ certainly isn't currently offering any talk competition in morning drive).
WWIQ will pull some of WPHT's 2.0 and some of WNTP's unmeasurable for somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.0. That's not enough to keep a station alive in this market when you're paying out the ass for Rush Limbaugh.
It is when you've made a deal to carry several Premiere programs, likely for a discount. If IQ doesn't like the rates next contract, they might take fewer hosts from Premiere, or Premiere might price to the market if IQ's the only talker lefts standing. For all we know IQ took CBS by surprise. When CBS was the only player, they could drop Beck and Hannity and still expect to keep Limbaugh. Merlin took advantage of Premiere's available lineup and oops, PHT's left out in the cold.
WNTP may survive, since it's Salem's O&O dumping ground pulling clearance for clearance's sake, but what little relevance they have in town will be gone.
Again, they don't care. NTP is relevant for those who listen and that's fine with Salem. It's PHT that's on the way to irrelevance if they don't attract some buzz (pun intended) with the new hosts. And that's harder to do with relative unknowns and with a branded FM competitor unless you pay to advertise. And CBS's cheap.. er 'thrifty' approach is what got PHT to where it is now.
Both Giordano and Smerconish are heritage talkers in Philly. And the local more-moderate line-up may pull some listeners from WHYY, which is (except for KYW) the top talker in Philly at the moment.
Again, a syndicated "nonpartisan" Smerconish in middays isn't going to be an issue to the other stations. And comparing NPR to commercial talkers is apples and oranges. HYY has very little overlap with PHT and IQ's audience. Completely different targets. HYY is lifestyle programming and news. The others are political issues talk. Like NTP, NPR affiliates do their own thing. They care about donors over listeners. Ratings may be a useful indicator that the noncomm programming has traction, but alone, they're irrelevant to the NPR affiliate's bottom line.
Once the novelty wears off and the curiosity bump on the PPM's is over, WWIQ will be lucky to get a 1.0. WPHT? Probably 1.3 or 1.4, but their cheaper lineup will make them financially feasible.
IQ's programming (at least from noon to 9PM) will be consistent and a familiar brand. There will be a novelty factor for a few listeners, but most will listen to the block rather than switch to unknowns. PHT has a decent morning lineup and unknowns on a station that used to be branded with Rush. If there are enough listeners to stick around and PHT gets some buzz going, they may keep some of the Phillies grade numbers. But they have to pay for those hosts. Right now, IQ is probably cheaper to run than PHT. A few morning guys, news and traffic from their existing facility in New York, and a router. PHT has to pay producers, hosts and staff. If they don't keep the unspectacular numbers they currently have, CBS will pull at least some of the costly local talent. I'm thinking in terms of two years before they try something else cheaper with younger demos.