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2006 Predictions?

R

radiolover78

What are your predictions for 2006?

I don't expect anything too major to happen, but lets discuss anyway.

92.3 Free FM will see a rise in the ratings, but I don't expect anything spectacular.

95.5 WPLJ may be on format flip watch with their mediocre ratings, but the thing that makes me hesitant about that statement is their revenue. They do well with that. The major factor also can be who ABC sells their stations to.

101.1 Jack FM will stick around for a good chunk in 2006, but if things continue the way they are, CBS Radio may change formats. Comments on this one?

Mix 102.7 will continue to battle with KTU.

Q104.3 will continue to do its thing successfully, maybe a slight rise in ratings with K-Rock leaving the scene. This will be the only rock outlet in New York City.

Lite FM will continue to dominate unless some other station catches up with them. Didn't a station tie with Lite FM in 2005? I'm sure this happend occasionally though.

Like I said in another thread, whats the story with Hot and Power? I don't follow those two.

Discuss<P ID="signature">______________
Happy Holidays</P>
 
KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up, it's true and official they are just waiting for press releases from CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the time comes. It's a great move for New York City, they need oldies back.
> What are your predictions for 2006?
>
> I don't expect anything too major to happen, but lets
> discuss anyway.
>
> 92.3 Free FM will see a rise in the ratings, but I don't
> expect anything spectacular.
>
> 95.5 WPLJ may be on format flip watch with their mediocre
> ratings, but the thing that makes me hesitant about that
> statement is their revenue. They do well with that. The
> major factor also can be who ABC sells their stations to.
>
> 101.1 Jack FM will stick around for a good chunk in 2006,
> but if things continue the way they are, CBS Radio may
> change formats. Comments on this one?
>
> Mix 102.7 will continue to battle with KTU.
>
> Q104.3 will continue to do its thing successfully, maybe a
> slight rise in ratings with K-Rock leaving the scene. This
> will be the only rock outlet in New York City.
>
> Lite FM will continue to dominate unless some other station
> catches up with them. Didn't a station tie with Lite FM in
> 2005? I'm sure this happend occasionally though.
>
> Like I said in another thread, whats the story with Hot and
> Power? I don't follow those two.
>
> Discuss
>
 
mrichards:

>>> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up, it's true
> and official they are just waiting for press releases from
> CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the time
> comes. It's a great move for New York City, they need oldies
> back.<<<

Why would Clear Channel want to switch WKTU to Oldies? They are established in their Dance format and doing well in the ratings too.




Thanks,
<P ID="signature">______________
Kevin L. Sealy</P>
 
> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up, it's true
> and official they are just waiting for press releases from
> CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the time
> comes. It's a great move for New York City, they need oldies
> back.
> > What are your predictions for 2006?
>

Doubtful and not a sensible move. I would guess that KTU bills quite well in their current configuration. Here's something to think about:

CBS FM didnt bill 35 million dollars last year because it was an "Oldies" station, it billed that well because it was "CBS FM", THAT particular oldies station. Oldies wont just automatically be a hit in NYC..... that is a huge assumption and I would imagine that the CC brass would be savvy enough to realize this, if I do!. Whatever next random station that flips to Oldies will not automatically take the place of CBS Fm, I doubt any station will.
 
> mrichards:
>
> >>> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up, it's
> true
> > and official they are just waiting for press releases from
>
> > CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the time
> > comes. It's a great move for New York City, they need
> oldies
> > back.
>
KTU going oldies sounds as bogus as it can be. Imagine how much money CC would lose? Then it will cannibalize ratings from 106.7. Yeah, that would be smart.
 
> > mrichards:
> >
> > >>> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up, it's
> > true
> > > and official they are just waiting for press releases
> from
> >
> > > CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the
> time
> > > comes. It's a great move for New York City, they need
> > oldies
> > > back.
> >
> KTU going oldies sounds as bogus as it can be. Imagine how
> much money CC would lose? Then it will cannibalize ratings
> from 106.7. Yeah, that would be smart.
>
Mix 102.7 would go oldies first BEFORE 'KTU. It's as everyone says, they bill well..do decent in the ratings. Not a smart move for 'KTU and CC at this point.

TS
 
> > > mrichards:
> > >
> > > >>> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up,
> it's
> > > true
> > > > and official they are just waiting for press releases
> > from
> > >
> > > > CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the
> > time
> > > > comes. It's a great move for New York City, they need
> > > oldies
> > > > back.
> > >
> > KTU going oldies sounds as bogus as it can be. Imagine how
>
> > much money CC would lose? Then it will cannibalize ratings
>
> > from 106.7. Yeah, that would be smart.
> >
> Mix 102.7 would go oldies first BEFORE 'KTU. It's as
> everyone says, they bill well..do decent in the ratings.
> Not a smart move for 'KTU and CC at this point.
>
> TS
>

Meaning that the chance of oldies returning to the New York City airwaves is next to nothing. Infinity will not flip Mix 102.7 to oldies.<P ID="signature">______________
Happy Holidays</P>
 
> > > > mrichards:
> > > >
> > > > >>> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up,
> > it's
> > > > true
> > > > > and official they are just waiting for press
> releases
> > > from
> > > >
> > > > > CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the
>
> > > time
> > > > > comes. It's a great move for New York City, they
> need
> > > > oldies
> > > > > back.
> > > >
> > > KTU going oldies sounds as bogus as it can be. Imagine
> how
> >
> > > much money CC would lose? Then it will cannibalize
> ratings
> >
> > > from 106.7. Yeah, that would be smart.
> > >
> > Mix 102.7 would go oldies first BEFORE 'KTU. It's as
> > everyone says, they bill well..do decent in the ratings.
> > Not a smart move for 'KTU and CC at this point.
> >
> > TS
> >
>
> Meaning that the chance of oldies returning to the New York
> City airwaves is next to nothing. Infinity will not flip Mix
> 102.7 to oldies.
>
Mix is ALREADY playing oldies; DISCO oldies,and rather successfully, it seems.
 
> Mix is ALREADY playing oldies; DISCO oldies,and rather
> successfully, it seems.
>

Up until a bit of a slip in the last trend they were doing well, but not at the cost of KTU who is still pretty much where they have been at a three share, nor has it appeared to hit KTU's target demo's which is what brings the billing... 12+ numbers are all glam, its the money demo's companies want and KTU bills really well for a middle of the pack station.<P ID="signature">______________
Can I sleep now?</P>
 
> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up, it's true
> and official they are just waiting for press releases from
> CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the time
> comes. It's a great move for New York City, they need oldies
> back.

Why would they go with a format that had less 25-54 sales demos than they have now? Makes no sense at all.
 
> > > > mrichards:
> > > >
> > > > >>> KTU's gonna be going oldies this year coming up,
> > it's
> > > > true
> > > > > and official they are just waiting for press
> releases
> > > from
> > > >
> > > > > CC and waiting to contact everyone about it when the
>
> > > time
> > > > > comes. It's a great move for New York City, they
> need
> > > > oldies
> > > > > back.
> > > >
> > > KTU going oldies sounds as bogus as it can be. Imagine
> how
> >
> > > much money CC would lose? Then it will cannibalize
> ratings
> >
> > > from 106.7. Yeah, that would be smart.
> > >
> > Mix 102.7 would go oldies first BEFORE 'KTU. It's as
> > everyone says, they bill well..do decent in the ratings.
> > Not a smart move for 'KTU and CC at this point.
> >
> > TS
> >
>
> Meaning that the chance of oldies returning to the New York
> City airwaves is next to nothing. Infinity will not flip Mix
> 102.7 to oldies.
>

That pretty much sums it.
 
>
> CBS FM didnt bill 35 million dollars last year because it
> was an "Oldies" station, it billed that well because it was
> "CBS FM", THAT particular oldies station.

And that $35 million was off nearly 20% from the 1997 peak, while the market was up in the same period by nearly 20%. Given that nay new staiton will not have the image and heritage, as you point out, the billing potential is even less...
 
> Lite FM will continue to dominate unless some other station
> catches up with them. Didn't a station tie with Lite FM in
> 2005? I'm sure this happend occasionally though.
WRKS tied WLTW for one trend.
 
> What are your predictions for 2006?

I predict that:

Radio Boards will be riddled with hideous, hurtful, and jealousy-fueled speculation by those outside both the business and the markets they attack.


I also predict that those who are angered by my first prediction will take personal shots at me in follow-up posts.


Oh yeah... my financial prediction for 2006 - Paper products will be stationery.


G'nite people!
 
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