...2007

[obihave]

Some early predictions for 2007...


1. Gambo & Ash will negotiate crossing over to 620, but only after several in-house KTAR'ers express dissapointment for not being considered for the drive-time slot. Someone at KPHO tells me that the deal could include post-game duties for one/both on all major sports teams that KTAR covers.

2. Bruce Jacobs leaves KFYI to focus on syndication (FOX sports) and/or bring his tyrant to another local station. KFYI would replace him with another local (Markson/Sharpe)

3. Locals Liddy/Hill will resurface on a truely powerful stick, this time in FM, when they lead the way on the station where Hip-Hop used to live.

Finally...

4. Numbers will continue to show that KFYI leads KTAR by a slim margin, thanks to Rush and Hannity who seem to control the Republican brain-trust.

please refer all comments to Carnac the Magnificent in Burbank Ca.

I must now return to the saga that is... Handel on Prozac!

 

[micman]

1. Gamboash are going to KTAR. That's no brainer.

2. Bruce Jacobs will not make it to summer. God help us with Markson. Sharpe is ok, not great.

3. Liddy will leave radio and Hill will go solo in another market. Their show sucks.

4. KTAR will beat KFYI in one or two ratings periods.

5. Ted Simons will never get another talk show position in his life.

 

[Legend City]

1. Charles Goyette will go to KXAM

2. Charles will leave KXAM and go to Radio Disney

3. Charles will get fired for telling kids stories about the "9/11 hoax"

4. Charles Goyette will go back to KPHX

5. Pat McMahon will bore a board operator to death and be jailed, but the judge will bail him out after he gets a Ladmo bag

6. Liddy and Hill will elope and move to Key West

7. Gaydos will finally finish that book he is reading, and will cry uncontrollably when he finds out that Charlotte the spider dies.

8. Bruce Jacobs will start a rant against Gaydos, because he is only half finished with the book.

9. Barry Young will be taken to the hospital after choking on his own arrogance, after he tries to tell the nurse how to do her job, she will turn off his IV and he will go into a coma, unlike Terry Schaivo, no one will care.

10. Ted Simonds will errupt into a 20 minute profanity laden tourretes syndrome attack on the air after he does another indepth show about what kind of food do you eat at the fair? Cotton Candy or Fry Bread?

11. Air America goes off the air, no one notices for a week.

12. Matt Gerson finds out that no one is actually taping his "Person to Person" radio shows prior to air, they are that bad.

13. Joe Crummey buys out USAirways with all the frequent flier miles he has accrued flying to KFYI smackdowns.

14. Wheel of hosts goes into its second year, gets beaten in the ratings by Colon Blow infomercial on KFNX

 

[oldiesfan6479]

9. Barry Young will be taken to the hospital after choking on his own arrogance, after he tries to tell the nurse how to do her job, she will turn off his IV and he will go into a coma, unlike Terry Schaivo, no one will care.

Kim might, but you're correct--no one else will.

10. Ted Simonds will errupt into a 20 minute profanity laden tourretes syndrome attack on the air after he does another indepth show about what kind of food do you eat at the fair? Cotton Candy or Fry Bread?

Is this the Ded Simons "I'm good enough to replace Bill Handel" audition?

 

[Gusto]

so that's it? only predictions for the whole year are ALL about AM / Talk?!

This thread should say the SAD STATE OF THE PHOENIX BOARD.

 

[porfavor]

One would assume Gambo & Ash will surface on KTAR. Prefect match!
But don't expect Bruce Jacobs to leave CC Phx any time soon...I bet he'll start doing sports stuff on Xtra in G&As absence.

 

[BoffoSimons]

2007...

...Bruce Jacobs' head finally explodes (thanks to liberals!) and.........there won't be anything inside.

...Da Nutz quit finishing each other's sentences and move on to telepathic communication.

...Pat chokes on a rib at Bill Johnson's, Michael Crow does the heimlich maneuver on him and earn a permanent spot on the McMahon Group....world ends as we know it.

...Gaydos thanks himself for being at the end of the world at "07:10 and 13 seconds."

 

[NoDice69]

so that's it? only predictions for the whole year are ALL about AM / Talk?!

This thread should say the SAD STATE OF THE PHOENIX BOARD.

Talk radio is the only place where things are happening. With so much of the FM side of the band being voicetracked by people in other parts of the country, nothing exciting is going on over there.

 

[Realist]

With so much of the FM side of the band being voicetracked by people in other parts of the country, nothing exciting is going on over there.

Which Phoenix FM stations use talent from other markets? (Outside syndicated programming) Edge, Mix, Power, Kiss, KDKB, KUPD, KNIX, KEZ, KSLX, KMLE all use local talent, no?

 

[porfavor]

From time to time, depending on staffing issues, KESZ uses Clear Channel talent from other markets.

 

[redbullfan]

KFYI will not lose to KTAR based upon the new KTAR FM signal! It will be based upon quality programming. Most NewsTalk stations fail once they go to FM or if they are FM. Many legendary AM Talkers are Clear Channel signals (not the company) which means they have a night signal that can cover entire regions of the country...why would a AM station give that up to go to a weaker FM signal?!?!?!? KTAR is still losing to KFYI and will continue to do so by various gaps. KTAR's programming simply sucks...PERIOD! KTAR's FM signal is going to hurt...not help! Maybe the FM signal will help revenue, but why should it when the ratings simply don't back up increased revenue!

 

[rockjock420]

So the FM signal will help revenue, but a full-market FM signal is going to hurt KTAR? I'm sure people in Prescott love hearing KTAR, but do you think KTAR makes any money off them?

 

[redbullfan]

I assume advertisers will enjoy paying up for the FM over the AM, but regular listeners will not follow it is that simple in fact they will flip over to KFYI. Within 2 years KTAR will be back on 620 and 92.3 will flip back to Hip Hop or some other music format. Bonneville is clearly stupid! They only see the short term increase of revenue and not the degrading of KTAR. Again Non-radio gurus are making ill fated decisions based upon what sounds better instead of what is better for the NewsTalk format! AM NewsTalk will always succeed over FM NewsTalk because that is where serious people know they can find serious professional NewsTalk compared to FM Hot Talk. NewsTalk skews older, but that is because younger people tend to not like anything political for the most part....now as they advance past 30 and 40 they listen more and more to NewsTalk...it is called Intellectual Maturity. AM is not dying nor will it when it comes to NewsTalk and Sports. Radio programmers need to wise up and speak out in defense of the NewsTalk format and keep it on AM where it belongs!

 

[rockjock420]

I can't beleive I am going to stick up for Bonneville here, but I would hardly say they spent $77-million to buy 92.3 for the "short term increase of revenue". And I would hardly call them stupid. The FM switch alone is not enough to revive KTAR. The ballsy moves they have made (Gerald excluded) and will be making on the 1st of the year will do far more than the FM Signal.

The Paul Harvey generation went to to AM for their news/talk because that's where it's always been. Peaople don't reach your "intellectual maturity" instantly. It happens slowly over time. Maybe they want more traffic reports, so they start swithing to 92.3 more and moe frequently. More likely than switching to 550 for their traffic (or news, or weather, or talk, whatever fix they are looking for). With the exception of the talk products, KTAR does a far better job than KFYI. The talk will begin to improve in the new year. All that minus the sports interruptions (which have hurt KTAR's news image over the years) and KTAR is looking pretty good.

One other thing to consider... Bonneville is owned by a church, not a publicly traded corporation. They aren't forced to respond to every little fluctuation of the market the way the other companies (CC, CBS, etc.) have to. As a publicly traded company, there is no such thing as a long-term plan for anything.

 

[tenchances]

Many legendary AM Talkers are Clear Channel signals (not the company) which means they have a night signal that can cover entire regions of the country...why would a AM station give that up to go to a weaker FM signal?!?!?!?

But do the sales teams of those AM stations pitch that massive reach to their clients? For example, Chicago's WGN-AM shows up in the Milwaukee book (at least among 12+). But is WGN-AM's sales staff targetting clients who have businesses in the Milwaukee area?

If they aren't...then does it really matter how far the AM signal reaches?

I'm sure people in Prescott love hearing KTAR, but do you think KTAR makes any money off them?

Exactly. Bonneville is concerned with how well KTAR performs in the Phoenix ratings book. I don't think they are using numbers from the Flagstaff-Prescott book in their sales efforts. With that in mind, it makes sense for them to focus on improving their listenership in Phoenix. For example, the FM signal can be heard much more clearly in many Phoenix-area office buildings...with the AM signal, this is difficult if not impossible.

On a related note...with most car stereos, I imagine that all of the FM presets must be grouped together and all of the AM presets are in their own group. For example, one group of presets CANNOT be 92.3, 550, 94.5, 910, 100.7, and 102.5...92.3, 94.5, 100.7 and 102.5 must be under "FM1" while 550 and 910 must be under "AM". For people who listen to primarily music, but also want to have easy access to a station for news and traffic, it seems that this gives KTAR an advantage. It's easier to have 92.3 as a preset alongside the music stations. This is how I have it set in my car...I don't find myself switching to the AM band anywhere near as much as I used to.

 

[redbullfan]

Couple Points: When a station can brag about it's huge signal over the competition the station can present a larger than life image and that image can help Sales. Who cares about if the AM signal can get into office buildings anymore...when you have online streaming on most stations now! Most radio listening probably happens on the commute anyways...signal matters in that case...sometimes you will travel from one listening area to another. What if some commute from the Prescott area to areas in the Phoenix area...KFYI has the advantage there. The vast majority of listeners know that Serious News and Talk are on AM not FM. Hot Talk stations are a joke when it comes to serious news and talk and they are almost all FM. KTAR will now be thought of as HOT TALK...not NewsTalk just due to the FM signal! Period. KTAR now competes with LIVE/Free FM in that cheap FM image...KTAR WILL LOSE LOSE LOSE LOSE...they will never beat KFYI while they live on FM! KSL in Salt Lake City is on both AM and FM! Hmmm...maybe KTAR should keep the AM dial position too!

 

[rockjock420]

Again, I can't beleive I'm sticking up for Bonneville and KTAR, but here I go... You're saying the few people commuting far enough that they would travel beyond the range of 92.3 are more important than people listenin in the office. Anyone who has worked in an office knows listening to online streaming is far less commons that over-the-air radio. Most companies would frown on using their hardware / bandwidth to listen to the radio.

KTAR will continute to gain KFYI's market share a long as they continue the heavy marketing push, keep investing in their news product, and as long as KFYI sits back and watches. Don't expect any investment from Clear Channel any time soon. If KFYI doesn't start to push back in a significant way, they may get too far behind to compete. Sure, KFYI has the big names in talk, and KTAR has a few stale old timers, but they have got balls.

As for the sports station... After the initial marketing push of both stations, 92.3 will begin to take most of the marketing budjet. A yea or two from now, I'm sure the KTAR commercials on tv during dbacks / suns games will all be for the FM, as will much of the stadium / ballpark advertising... All this without having to pay, and without having to give up afternoon drive for an early game.

Now clean out some of the stale talk hosts, an KTAR will be looking good.

 

[redbullfan]

More Points: I live in DFW not Phoenix. I'm a 30 yr old white male that grew up in San Antonio...traveled for a living for several years and Phoenix was a destination quite a few times. I enjoy many radio formats from NewsTalk to Top 40(Mainstream and Rythmic, Old School(such as Movin), Hot AC, Country and Christian...also Latin Rythmic! I have quite a few Hispanic Male and Female friends so I identify with a wide range of music and culture. Before I get back to NewsTalk let me talk a little about the Movin format named stations...Movin is now a success in Seattle. In LA Movin has a awesome November extrap where they doubled or more their listener base....still too early to tell. Both in Salt Lake City and PHoenix the Movin signals is limited at best...enjoy the Movin stations while they are there unless they move to a better signal. In DFW the jury will be out on Movin for at least a few more months/trends. Movin is my radio dream fantasy format...I absolutely LOVE IT...so much of that music was played on the Legendary KTFM back in my San Antonio days!
Now to NewsTalk...KTAR has a long term hope simply based upon Technology...for example I just got a brand new IPOD FM TUNER like thing that doesn't include AM radio. If car radios begin to exclude AM radio then KFYI will indeed be in trouble. For now that appears to not be in the near future and KFYI can indeed sit back and relax...Anybody with a interest in News or Politics in Phoenix or other market will continue to choose the AM powerhouse first that is dependable for serious News and Political talk from the right and left. KTAR's image will be confused with Free FM just because they are on FM now. For KTAR the signal is nothing to crow about compared to KFYI and having Sports on a so called NewsTalk or News station is a lose lose situation...being on FM only is a lose lose for the forseeable future as well...KTAR needs to also stay on 620 to keep a serious image! Period!

 

[ajhenderson]

On a related note...with most car stereos, I imagine that all of the FM presets must be grouped together and all of the AM presets are in their own group. For example, one group of presets CANNOT be 92.3, 550, 94.5, 910, 100.7, and 102.5...92.3, 94.5, 100.7 and 102.5 must be under "FM1" while 550 and 910 must be under "AM". For people who listen to primarily music, but also want to have easy access to a station for news and traffic, it seems that this gives KTAR an advantage. It's easier to have 92.3 as a preset alongside the music stations. This is how I have it set in my car...I don't find myself switching to the AM band anywhere near as much as I used to.

You are right, and that will happen, but the question is, until PPM arrives, how many of those people will report that listening, and in what percentage? As soon as they get the (inaccurate, Metro) traffic news they wanted, they'll hear Ted Simons asking "what's your favorite flavor of soup?" and go back to waxing nostalgia about having orgasms in the back of cars listening to J. Lo on 97.5.

 

[KeithE4]

Now to NewsTalk...KTAR has a long term hope simply based upon Technology...for example I just got a brand new IPOD FM TUNER like thing that doesn't include AM radio. If car radios begin to exclude AM radio then KFYI will indeed be in trouble. For now that appears to not be in the near future and KFYI can indeed sit back and relax...Anybody with a interest in News or Politics in Phoenix or other market will continue to choose the AM powerhouse first that is dependable for serious News and Political talk from the right and left.

With sports being an exception, the folks who listen to AM are getting increasingly older - too old, in fact, for advertisers to pay much attention to them anymore. Over the long term (10 more years maybe), there is little future for mass-market AM radio outside of a few big-city 50 kW non-directional blowtorches - something Phoenix does not possess, while DFW does. We don't have a WBAP, WGN, or KFI here and probably never will.

KTAR's image will be confused with Free FM just because they are on FM now.

Not a chance. Not only is Free FM on the other side of the dial (101.5) but their subject matter is totally different.

For KTAR the signal is nothing to crow about compared to KFYI and having Sports on a so called NewsTalk or News station is a lose lose situation...

KTAR's daytime signal is roughly equal to that of KFYI: 5 kW non-directional on a low dial position. At night, KFYI runs 1 kW non-directional, while KTAR is still 5 kW but with slight nulls to the east and NNW to protect DFW and Portland OR stations. KTAR has a slight edge over KFYI in the Phoenix metro due to their higher power and central-city transmitter location (KFYI transmits from SE Phoenix).

being on FM only is a lose lose for the forseeable future as well...KTAR needs to also stay on 620 to keep a serious image! Period!

KTAR-FM runs 98000 watts at almost 1800 feet HAAT, non-directional 24/7. Not only does that make it slightly better than its AM counterpart signal-wise, but being in the VHF spectrum, it can be heard in office buildings, while 550 and 620 cannot.

For example, I work near the airport, about 5 miles from both of their towers and about the same distance from KDUS 1060, also running 5 kW non-directional. I can't hear any AM station in my building. Too much steel & concrete in the office, too much stucco (which reduces signal levels at low frequencies due to the wire mesh behind the stucco finish) at home, and too many computers generating too much RF noise all over the radio spectrum to make reception on 540-1700 kHz practical anymore outside of one's car.

KTAR will do just fine on 92.3 if they make a few changes, notably getting rid of the geezer-skewing Paul Harvey and Pat McMahon (neither of which will happen anytime soon). KFYI will have to add an FM signal if they are to survive. Not tomorrow, but in the next couple of years.