Predictions and comments made so far are fascinating and often funny. Getting serious for a moment, here are a few things that could happen in Western NY radio in 2008...
--The Entercom spinoffs in Rochester may end up going to more than one buyer. I can see Warm 101.3 being absorbed into the local Clear Channel cluster (which I believe will be short one FM and free to fill in its hand after the conclusion of the Channel 13 spinoff) by mid-year, contingent of course on closing the TV station sale. The two lower power stations could go to separate buyers--one, probably 93.3, to a religious outfit.The other, probably 94.1, may go to a buyer who will turn it into the city's first Latino format outlet now that the Hispanic population of Rochester has reached critical mass to support a fulltime signal profitably.
--None of the established stations that don't change hands, will change formats.
--WCMF will probably be able to persuade Wease and most of his morning crew to stay on. Wease knows how the business is going--but Entercom realizes that he represents a lot of the value of the station it bought, and without him, they have a station without a signature act and a major revenue source. A compromise on a new contract that keeps him on hand for six or seven more years, while they can develop a successor when he retires, is a must. At the same time, they'll use the midday shift vacated by Dave Kane to help develop that successor, who is probably not on the station roster now but can become familiar and well liked in the city if he or she is given time to grow and become familiar to everyone.
--Speaking of Dave Kane, would anyone be surprised to hear him wind up on Warm 101.3 if it goes to a buyer who wants to keep the same format but make things a little more competitive?
--WDKX will stay strong with under-35 listeners in both city and suburb. They may look into ways to stretch their signal reach into the outlying counties. (Might they be a player for 101.3, in which case WDKX would go full class-B and 103.9 would become that Latino station I'm talking about, while staying in the Langston family portfolio?) If they don't get a big signal, they could still go the translator/repeater route. And even if neither comes to pass, they've got an indefinite hold on one of the top three spots 12+.
--In Buffalo, WBEN stays the course, WECK nibbles around its edges in the city core and inner ring burbs and makes some money in the process (assuming they follow through on their promise to program locally in the key dayparts on weekdays) and Star 102.5 adds some more news and information elements, at least in drivetime, to protect its own and WBEN's flanks. Star 102.5 will start to resemble the 1979-vintage full service adult contemporary WBEN in what it's trying to do, although of course it'll be playing the new music today's 25-54s like. But you get my drift...same philosophy Bob Wood used in programming WBEN back in the day (and he might even be asked to consult if Entercom knows what it's doing).
--WGR will continue to depend on the success of the Sabres for its own success in the all important fall, winter and spring books. They'll need to emphasize hockey until or unless the drifting Bills find a direction back to the playoffs, and reassure people that they're in Western New York for the long haul.
--WHTT will be under pressure from Citadel corporate brass to get better results--and the approach they may use is to retune its sound BACK toward the classic hits format that served it well a couple years back. The success of WCBS-FM will be very influential. IF that happens, the station will be once again 100% locally originated from 6 AM to midnight 7 days a week.
--KB may well be put on the block, changed or put on a truck out of town. Entercom has wasted too much money just using that frequency as the radio equivalent of a blocking tight end for WBEN. They have to either part with it and take the calculated risk that someone else won't make a go of it; reformat it with something other than news/talk or sports that a 35-64 audience would like (such as another stab at classic hits if WHTT doesn't change); or move the signal out of town to another market and rebuild it to go head to head with someone else's heritage talker (now possible under the FCC rules).
--Going to automation on the Lake is an admission of defeat in Entercom's attempt to go after a piece of 97 Rock (not to mention a move to avoid cutting into recently acquired WCMF in Rochester). That station would surprise me if it stayed the way it is through '08. Country won't be an option since that would compromise WBEE's dominance in the Rochester portion of its reach. Maybe they could just drift...but wouldn't a WGR simulcast generate just as much added revenue by stretching that station's reach and filling in some serious coverage gaps? I'm sure they're thinking about it and it might be their best long term bet.
--The AC battle will stay intense even if WHTT retires from the field and tries classic hits once again...I'd guess Star 102.5's two biggest advantages will be big signal and an established personality lineup.
--97 Rock and WBLK will each continue to dominate their lucrative format and demo niches.
--As to that remark at the top of this thread about a possibly paranoid talk host in Rochester--don't know who it is, but let's face it, in today's radio industry, EVERYONE who cracks a mike is just a little worried about his, and his industry's, future. That's to be expected in uncertain times like these. Hey, we're all human, and consequently just a little scared about the future whenever the future's not clear. It doesn't have to be that way, of course...stations that field a stable lineup and commit to their staffs and their listeners will ride out whatever economic storms lie ahead and come out just fine. Those that panic when things get a little dicey will find they live to regret it--as they always do. We'll see some stations panic and hurt themselves, others stay the course and prosper. Hope you're all working for one of the latter...and have a happy New Year.
