2009 Predictions

[superset weekend]

Rox, with all due respect, you just do not get it. I do not know whether you are in the radio industry, or just watching from the sidelines, but you are simply incorrect about some stuff.

Programming cost cuts will lead to fewer listeners,but radio "will continue to make money in 2009"? These are two seperate statements. Fewer listeners does not mean less revenue! Revenue is not completly based on cume listeners. Advertisers DO NOT pay on the number of listeners. This is radio sales 101.


Secondly, there is NOT a huge drop in ad budgets local and national. National YES, but local, NO. Local has INCREASED with the demise of the newspaper. This is not up for discussion Rox, Local Revenue has INCREASED! IT amounts to this, Radio has some pretty good salespeople!

I would like to know what companies YOU think will be destoyed in 2009, radio companies. I would like to revisit the prediction this time, next year.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Radio Sales 101?

Radio Sales 101? Ever hear of Cost Per Point? Agencies sure have. If listening decreases - and I expect both cume and quarter hours will suffer as programming degrades - revenue will indeed decrease. And, you have somewhat overstated the demise of the Buffalo News.

With a serious decline in auto dealer advertising, I doubt that local revenue will be higher in 2009 than it was in 2008, and I seriously doubt that 4th quarter revenues locally will match last year's. In fact, I expect that local sales people will be cutting rate in an attempt to attract those businesses that have previously been priced out of the market.

I believe that both Citadel and Regent are in serious trouble. Citadel is in worse shape, and I believe that they're likely to undergo serious restructuring within the next year. The thing that may save Citadel from Chapter 11 reorganization, or even Chapter 7 bankruptcy, is the fact that the banks are being bailed out by the Federal government, and they have no desire to operate broadcast companies. The banks are certainly aware that they'll never get their investment back by selling off the company - either in total or piecemeal.

 

[superset weekend]

cost per point matters with national agencies, which we already said were not going to be the driving force, they do NOT matter with local direct which is where the bulk of ad sales in WNY are going to come from. Demise of the BUffalo News? Count the number of advertisers in there,you can do it on 2 hands. And by the way Q4 revenues locally in 2008 are up from last year. please don't make these factless statements if you are not on the front lines everyday to see what is going on.

 

[SirRoxalot]

The Bitter Smell of "Success"

cost per point matters with national agencies, which we already said were not going to be the driving force, they do NOT matter with local direct which is where the bulk of ad sales in WNY are going to come from. Demise of the BUffalo News? Count the number of advertisers in there,you can do it on 2 hands. And by the way Q4 revenues locally in 2008 are up from last year. please don't make these factless statements if you are not on the front lines everyday to see what is going on.

Trust me, I see what's going on every day. I've never seen a sales floor so quiet, or so many people trying to avoid contact with those corporate weasels implanted in every organization. I've also seen the number of avails taken up by network or syndication trade rise as the number of local advertisers has fallen. Individual sales people may be doing as well or better than last year, but that's because there are significantly fewer sales people. We'll see the overall 4th quarter numbers in a few weeks, and the national numbers ain't gonna look pretty.

What happens locally won't mean much if the parent company is in the tank. All it means is that corporate will suck even more life out of local to make up for their failures in other markets. If local revenues stay steady, corporate will insist that they cut even more personnel, figuring that they can get the same numbers with fewer bodies. "Success" in this environment breeds further cuts - not rewards.

 

[qman]

You want a prediction? How about the relentless bashing of Legends 102.7 will continue on this board in 2009.

 

[Element9]

I hate predictions... they remind me of the 'holes on sports talk radio who know all the answers. How many experts predicted the Bills would beat the Broncos last week? I didn't hear any. And honestly, I didn't expect the Bills to win either... but I wasn't on a 5 thousand Watt radio station running my mouth. Still, if you want controversy, predictions stir the pot and incite listeners to call and comment, just as we incite posters to post here.

So with that caveat out of the way, here's the view from the ninth-hole of the board.

More voice tracks. Big prediction, huh? Well, if 97 Rock can VT 7 to midnight, other dayparts may follow and other stations under the Citadel roof may follow.

Buffalo gets another FM Country station. Ramblin' Lou voicetracks middays. Okay, the second part of this is a lighter touch.

Temporary sign off at midnight for at least two of the market's FMs... saving money on the electric bill.

One company puts its Buffalo cluster up for sale, no buyers, no credit, no deal.

One of Buffalo's out of work jocks finds a gig at Jack as the station goes live in one daypart. I see Tom Tiberi in afternoon drive at Jack.

Entercom makes more cuts in February as sales remain steady but flat. Legendary staff member gets moved in the line-up or cut.

I hope none of the negative predictions happen and only the good, but 2009 looks to be a very challenging year. Like we all didn't see that comin', huh.

 

[superset weekend]

It is going to be a challenging year, for every industry. Rox, to your point, National is not doing so well, but local direct still can, especially with good local marketing reps on the station sales floor. This is obviously where we have to concentrate. Radio station sales dept might be quiet, especially if you depend on just recieving national buys via fax. But if you work revenue from a local level, and focus on results for the clients, and not ratings, local will survive well.

As far as avails go, it depends on the inventory that station lends. It is just supply and demand pricing. I think i know where you are going with this, and some i agree with, but the answer is in the local direct clients. They are still getting results and radio contiues to give them massive reach, only second to broadcast TV. I don't know what your role might be in broadcasting, but as long as we are thinking of the listeners and advertisers first, things will work out for radio. Some companies still do that, some do not. I choose to be a part of the first one.