2009 Predictions

[sirstevie]

I'm interested in what you all think what will happen this year.
ESPECIALLY YOU MAMA!!

 

[TakeItFromMe]

Winter book means nothin since we will be in PPM by the time it is out :-\ PPM predictions are a crapshoot but here ya go. in 25-54 which is what counts for the PPM April-Dec:

#1 KZOK
#2 THE WOLF
#3 KIRO-FM
#4 KISW
#5 WARM/STAR tie

18-34 will go to KISW

 

[SeattleRadioPro]

I'm interested in what you all think what will happen this year.
ESPECIALLY YOU MAMA!!

I predict this board will be good for more than its usual amount of laughs this year - based on the way things are starting out!

 

[AQH]

I predict there will be more people who will say the answer to today's radio is to hire people from Seattle radio's past.

Also, more multiple handles to one single person.

 

[Bongwater]

I predict there will be more people who will say the answer to today's radio is to hire people from Seattle radio's past.

And I'll predict they'll do a hell of a better job.

 

[fremont]

I predict there will be more people who will say the answer to today's radio is to hire people from Seattle radio's past.

I for one don't think it's the "answer to today's radio," but I think it's fodder for at least one station.

 

[AQH]

And I'll predict they'll do a hell of a better job.

Right. :

 

[AQH]

I predict there will be more people who will say the answer to today's radio is to hire people from Seattle radio's past.

I for one don't think it's the "answer to today's radio," but I think it's fodder for at least one station.

Fodder? It's an MO around here!

 

[Steenman]

I think the answer is always the same.... "follow the money". As a media buyer, I see the first half of the coming year in relative freefall, and sellers scrambling to make whatever deals they can with the fewer avaiable ad dollars out there. Radio, whether you like it or not, falls underneath TV and now also has to compete with on-line dollars. Newspapers will be scrambling even more and any radio groups that have newspaper groups in their same ownership fold will feel it even more since the metrics of that business will be even worse. Cost cutting on every level will be explored, things like stations own ad budgets will be squeezed, as will every support element like traffic people, sales assistants, etc. Good people will continue to leave, some to return at a future time, others to start their own ad agencies (good luck with this one), others to move to other industries. The only good news will be that rates will drop so if there is a 25% budget reduction by a client, and a 25% reduction in the price of airtime, the client can still maintain a reasonable voice for when things do turn. I predict that many of the on-line intiatives of stations will be slowed down or put on hold, even though it is a growing segment, it is still a small piece of the pie. The second half of the year perhaps holds some glimmer of a recovery, some belieive the worst is yet to come, others (like me) think we are not "bouncing along the bottom". So it's all about "when" the recovery can get any traction, there are pieces of the economy falling into place, but it will take time. I think ESPN710 will become a reasonably big factor, considering the general vaccuum of the year, it will be something to watch, and also the effect on KOMO AM, and there is the KBKS changes, and other possible sales/transfers, most of which may involve putting more good people on the street. But the bottom line is, radio will emerge, and like smart advertisers, those properties that have the resources and committment to "stay the course' will be the biggest winners, those that cut and cut, the ultimately losers. There are just too many other places an advertiser can go put their dollars, radio has to maintain value to their customers and listeners.

 

[djdan]

Well said Steenman! Radio represents a tremendous value for advertisers right now with rates 25-50% below just one year ago. Audiences have not decreased but in fact radio is increasing in listenership according to Arbitron. 92% of the population will use the medium this week.
That said, radio must see this as a time to invest in growing their assets as satellite, web, newspaper and even TV face declining audiences and ad revenue. Radio has been pronounced dead several times, when TV arrived, when in-car cassettes arrived, when cable music channels arrived, when tv cable arrived, when satellite arrived, when web-radio arrived. The medium still delivers 92% of the population each week. Survival, as Steenman points out, is in the medium's own hands. Follow the money. Predictions for the New Year. Some stations will spend money to support their product. Bonneville seems to be leading the charge in Seattle and rumors abound they may buy the CBS group. Another big shakeup is expected this week as CBS reorganizes. I believe Bonneville ownership of KMPS, KZOK and JACK would be good news for those stations. Clear Channel will make its plans known this week as Corporate hands down it marching orders in Dallas. Entercom, Sandusky, Fisher and Crista all have properties that deserve support. Will they get it? That is a prediction no one on this board can really make.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

Radio has been pronounced dead several times, when TV arrived, when in-car cassettes arrived, when cable music channels arrived, when tv cable arrived, when satellite arrived, when web-radio arrived. The medium still delivers 92% of the population each week.

Difference is not the competitive nature of the alternatives, but that there was compelling reason for people to stay with radio. Now, though, you can't argue that's the case when everything that MAKES compelling program is fair game for corporate cuts. By the time the current programming (bland) is up against a competitive technology .... THEN the technology will win because the person controls the content choice (apples to apples).

I listed last week to Sirius/XM ... heard synthesized voice doing market-by-market traffic/weather (they are now feeding computer content in some markets to a voice-generator). When the corporate owners find out that's possible...we'll REALLY see the quality decline!!!!

 

[sirstevie]

1. MAJOR shake-up at KMPS
2. KISS will flip
3. JACK will finally Fail.
4. KISW will dominate

Anybody else??