2011 Albany Radio Predictions

[danikayser84]

It's about that time again... since 2011 is on the horizon, just less than two months away. So, we should start talking about our 2011 Albany radio predictions. So far, my predictions:

- 92.3 WFLY: Probably staying CHR... after all, why mess with a top-rated station?
- 93.7 WYAI and 94.5 WYKV: Probably not going anywhere
- 95.5 WYJB: Staying AC, pretty much... they won't mess with this either
- 96.3 WAJZ: Very successful, it looks like... probably staying Rhythmic
- 96.7 WPTR: Might be sold in the future, perhaps to Vandenburgh
- 97.7 WEXT: Will probably stay the way it is now
- 98.3 WTRY: Probably going to creep further into the 80s and early 90s
- 99.5 WRVE: Probably should start going more AC to compete against B95
- 100.3 WKBE: Either gets simulcast on 100.9 after the Bridge debacle or is moved into the Albany market outright
- 100.9 WKLI: Should become a simulcast of the Point, if the Bridge continues to fail
- 101.3 WQAR: Should simulcast 1240 WKVZ... but they probably won't and it'll stay Star
- 102.3 WKKF: I think the days are numbered with this station... face it, they're tanking against the far-more-successful Jamz and will probably flip sometime next year
- 102.7 WEQX: Still doing the same thing they've always been
- 103.1 WGY-FM: Continues to be a simulcast of WGY 810
- 103.5 WQBJ: Stays a simulcast of Q103
- 103.9 WQBK: Will probably keep going, but maybe drop FBHW?
- 104.5 WTMM: Staying ESPN, most likely
- 104.9 WZMR: Sold or traded, depending on how Cat Country is doing
- 105.7 WBZZ: Either flips to CHR to compete against FLY or flips to liberal talk to provide competition to conservative WGY-FM
- 106.5 WPYX: Maybe start leaning more towards Mainstream Rock like WPDH?
- 107.1 WFFG: Now this is what a real WGNA competitor should sound like, not WZMR... too bad the simulcast on 104.9 failed five years ago
- 107.7 WGNA: Probably no changes here, of course

- 590 WROW: Still Magic... wonder why they didn't move Magic to this and 104.9
- 810 WGY: Still the same conservative banter
- 900 WUAM: Still simulcasting YNN Albany
- 980 WOFX: Probably will remain FOX Sports
- 1160 WABY: should simulcast on 101.3 if 1240 doesn't want to
- 1240 WKVZ: should simulcast on 101.3 and/or 1160
- 1300 WGDJ: Will continue to grow the way they are
- 1460 WDDY: remains Radio Disney
- 1540 WDCD: Will probably remain a Christian Talk station if not sold

So, what are your predictions for what will happen in 2011? =)

 

[Reporter]

I like this.

How are the ratings at the Bridge? Anyone? I think Cat Country has a legitimate shot at WGNA.

1023 KISS fm, lost when they let go of DJ Thomas, imo. Please Flip.

Also 105.7, does anyone listen? (Can't wait for Mark Vanness to chime in I would die to program this station.

Next!

 

[THE_KNICKMAN]

96.7 WPTR if it is sold, yes Vandenburg might buy it but don't underestimate Paul Lotters (WHAZ 1330) looking at it as all of his FM's are a rimshot into the center of the A-S-T DMA, and HAZ does not have a good night signal there.

104.9 WZMR Probably will become less of a factor with WGNA, may simulcast "Magic".

105.7 WBZZ Format will change after Christmas music is over, but not liberal talk, most advertising customers tend to be conservative, that why other liberal formats have failed.

1460 WDDY Radio Disney has already shutdown many stations across the nation including Providence, RI, and Hartford, CT. in favor of satellite and internet delivery. It could happen here, too.

 

[Orator1]

Where are the predictions for 2010? Let's have a look at those prognostications.
Or is this just another fun but altogether useless little exercise?

 

[AMonFM]

It's pretty obvious there wont be any significant changes at the 'Big 5' (92.3, 95.5, 99.5, 106.5, 107.7)...

No changes at Star 101.3 - i know you folks down in smallbany & troy just can't figure it out, but we here in Saratoga County like our local station. Sorry to sound separatist, but Star is the only station providing local service for Saratoga. Would have been cool to see the WKAJ calls picked up when they were available. Oh well...

Whatever that waste of electrons is on 104.9 - wouldn't shock me in the least to see it sold, or at least becoming a simulcast of 590. (Personally, that signal should have never been allowed to be moved from Fulton County IMO... been nothing but a waste ever since). another thing overlooked here on this quality forum.... the recent addition of Bill Lawrence in PM Drive on Magic 590. Veteran jock with a beefy resume in this and other markets. Nice to hear him back on again.

96.7 - They have a loyal listenership, but I just cant see the economics of holding these properties (96.7/1540). As it is, 1540 is signing off at what, 10pm? How sad. There's no way these stations are running in the black. The bell will toll for thee sooner or later.... problem is - the asking price. Way out of reach for Vandenberg or Paul Lotters. The Crawfords never sell cheap.

100.9 - Really, what's the point? The 'variety rock' format ran it's course last decade. I'm not sure which is the bigger waste of bandwidth - this station or 105.7. Two classic examples of there being just too many signals on in this market. somebody is gonna wake up and tap into the growing hispanic market soon, and one of these signals would be appropriate for such a format.

If Paul Lotters were looking for an additional metro signal for WHAZ, i could see 1460 being put to such use, if Citadel offers the property up for sale or lease.

One thing I do see is this sham known as HD Radio starting to slowly disappear in 2011. It doesn't make money, it has next to no listeners, it just hasn't lived up to all the hype. 1540 shut it off ages ago, and I could see some local FM's just saying the hell with it, especially in this economy where the license fee may start getting GM's wondering if it's worth the added expense to serve only a handful of listeners. Personally, i'd like to get all the lost bandwidth back to hear some out of town signals again. I have HD at home and in the car, my home tuner only collects dust and the one in the car will be changed out before years end for a tuner with much better AM freq. response and reception. It was a cool idea, but the benefits just aren't there (as many have been saying all along). Just look at ratings... non-HD stations are still just as competitive as their digital counterparts.

 

[danikayser84]

Some updates to my list, now that 105.7's new format has been revealed in another thread:

- 92.3 WFLY: Starts to lean more rock again, to separate itself from Jamz 96.3
- 95.5 WYJB: Starts to play more Hot AC, but is still reported as an AC station
- 96.7 WPTR: Remains Pulse 96-7 until when/if it gets sold
- 100.3 WKBE: Tanks against the new 105.7 and flips to AC to chip at Star 101.3 in Saratoga/Glens Falls
- 100.9 WKLI: Move Cat Country here or simulcast Froggy again? WKLI's got the stronger signal than WZMR
- 102.3 WKKF: Writing's on the wall for Kiss-FM... it'll either flip to Lite FM, Rhythmic, Sports (simulcast of 980) or Urban
- 103.5 WQBJ: Continues to simulcast Q103 until a buyer is found (Chartock maybe? Or maybe some religious broadcaster...)
- 103.9 WQBK: Becomes Mainstream Rock or Classic Rock to reduce overlap with 105.7, rebranding as "Q103.9" in the process
- 104.9 WZMR: Becomes a simulcast of Magic 590 and may increase power (maybe picking up either WKLI or WROW-FM for calls)
- 105.7 WBZZ: Their new format is a success, wiping out both WKBE and WKKF

- 980 WOFX: Might gain a simulcast on 102.3 in 2011
- 1300 WGDJ: Will continue to grow the way they are
- 1460 WDDY: remains Radio Disney until sold to someone else
- 1540 WDCD: This station's a joke... half the time it's not even on the air... expect this to be sold too

 

[BJSteigner]

Some updates to my list, now that 105.7's new format has been revealed in another thread:

- 92.3 WFLY: Starts to lean more rock again, to separate itself from Jamz 96.3
- 95.5 WYJB: Starts to play more Hot AC, but is still reported as an AC station
- 96.7 WPTR: Remains Pulse 96-7 until when/if it gets sold
- 100.3 WKBE: Tanks against the new 105.7 and flips to AC to chip at Star 101.3 in Saratoga/Glens Falls
- 100.9 WKLI: Move Cat Country here or simulcast Froggy again? WKLI's got the stronger signal than WZMR
- 102.3 WKKF: Writing's on the wall for Kiss-FM... it'll either flip to Lite FM, Rhythmic, Sports (simulcast of 980) or Urban
- 103.5 WQBJ: Continues to simulcast Q103 until a buyer is found (Chartock maybe? Or maybe some religious broadcaster...)
- 103.9 WQBK: Becomes Mainstream Rock or Classic Rock to reduce overlap with 105.7, rebranding as "Q103.9" in the process
- 104.9 WZMR: Becomes a simulcast of Magic 590 and may increase power (maybe picking up either WKLI or WROW-FM for calls)
- 105.7 WBZZ: Their new format is a success, wiping out both WKBE and WKKF

- 980 WOFX: Might gain a simulcast on 102.3 in 2011
- 1300 WGDJ: Will continue to grow the way they are
- 1460 WDDY: remains Radio Disney until sold to someone else
- 1540 WDCD: This station's a joke... half the time it's not even on the air... expect this to be sold too

I am thinking that WKKF should go Urban AC.
If WPTR stay with the Pulse, it should flip to dance if and when it is sold.
WFLY should go Dance music leaning and not more Rock leaning.
Any signal would be ok to flip to dance

 

[danikayser84]

BJ: Urban AC was already tried in Albany around five years ago (104.9 Love FM) and it failed then... probably wouldn't work now either

Dance formats generally don't do as well as Rhythmic or Urban... 102.3 will probably end up Rhythmic-only and compete against Jamz instead of Fly (which did lean more rock for a while, around 2005 to 2009 or so) and new CHR/rock station Crush

 

[BJSteigner]

BJ: Urban AC was already tried in Albany around five years ago (104.9 Love FM) and it failed then... probably wouldn't work now either

Dance formats generally don't do as well as Rhythmic or Urban... 102.3 will probably end up Rhythmic-only and compete against Jamz instead of Fly (which did lean more rock for a while, around 2005 to 2009 or so) and new CHR/rock station Crush

104.9 WZMR is 530 Watts signal whereas 102.3 WKKF is 4100 Watts. <Do the math.

 

[THE_KNICKMAN]

BJ: Urban AC was already tried in Albany around five years ago (104.9 Love FM) and it failed then... probably wouldn't work now either



104.9 WZMR is 530 Watts signal whereas 102.3 WKKF is 4100 Watts. <Do the math.

The power difference is because of the much higher average terrain height that WZMR has