2011 PREDICTIONS

[justpassingthough]

How much money is the 93.9 frequency making? In other words, how is it billing? I ask because if 93.9 has been home to four different formats in less than two years, something clearly isn't quite right there. What format has not been tried on it that might work out better than anything else that has been tried on that frequency? Does L.A. have any format holes that could be (successfully) filled on 93.9?

93.9 is LMA'ed with a purchase agreement to Grupo Radio Centro in Mexico. It is highly unlikely that they would do anything other than a format in Spanish. Since they paid very large deposits on the LMA, anything else in the near future is probably unlikely.

Wasn't the LMA on 93.9 contracted for 7 years? I don't see this station flipping any time soon...

 

[radioresearcher]

If "Exitos" leaves 93.9, my best bet is either Gen X or triple-A (IMO, Gen X would be a great idea if 92.3 really becomes KFI-FM).

Gen X has been a huge bust in PPM. AAA won't work in L.A. - it's been tried three times.

 

[AM FM listener]

KTWV becomes a full-fledged mainstream AC, no more "smooth" AC. I gotta figure their demos are still way too high.

SBS sells KXOL and becomes Rhythmic AC (the WKTU type).

KLOS goes all Talk. Keeps Mark & Brian for mornings, moves Hannity from KABC, maybe one other.

KSWD becomes the rock leader in LA. Goes unchallenged hereafter because demographic trends do not favor another rock format.

 

[emailfailed]

Though their ratings have been slipping I don't see KLOS becoming KABC-FM anytime within the next year.

Frankly, I would bet for a KFI-FM over a KABC-FM any day of the week.

As I have mentioned before, once KFI moves to FM, and it will, that will be the opening salvo for AM talkers, like KABC, to strongly consider a move to their FM property.

As for predictions in the coming year, well, may KRTH adds more 90s to the playlist.

 

[emailfailed]

...may... er "maybe KRTH..."

Sorry for the typo.

 

[musicfan101]

My bold prediction is that Doug Steckler will join Conway on KFI in 2011.

 

[michael hagerty]

Though their ratings have been slipping I don't see KLOS becoming KABC-FM anytime within the next year.

Frankly, I would bet for a KFI-FM over a KABC-FM any day of the week.

As I have mentioned before, once KFI moves to FM, and it will, that will be the opening salvo for AM talkers, like KABC, to strongly consider a move to their FM property.

As for predictions in the coming year, well, maybe KRTH adds more 90s to the playlist.

Yeah, but....

If I'm Bob Moore and I know that KFI flipping to FM will force me to do the same...and I know that for whatever reason, Clear Channel is dragging its feet on making that flip, I'd be seriously inclined to throw the first punch:

*I'm going there anyway.

*KABC gets the benefit of the publicity by being first. The story for KFI will be "oh, them too...following KABC."

*Since the game isn't to move AM listeners to FM as much as it is to attract 25-54 FM listeners who don't currently sample the station, why not let those people sample and possibly develop an attachment to KABC instead of KFI?


As for KRTH and the 90s, that only makes sense.

 

[wirelessfugu]

Here's the scenario. Saul Levine gets tired of Country and screwing the pooch with KKGO. They bail on the format for whatever incarnation of Rock Jeff Pollack talks him into. Then Bonneville readies KSWD their failing Triple A station for Country. Remember they failed at Country in San Francisco, but do real well with it in St. Louis and Cincinnati. In essence, these two station flip formats/intellectual property. KSWD becomes a new Country Music Station and KKGO might rebrand as KLSX (LA Classic Rock calls or better KMET).

With the money Bonneville has sunk into KSWD to get a one share, they would get double in return marketing a Country Music Radio Station in Los Angeles.

Hire a powerhouse Country Music Radio programmer who understands the combination of show-biz and music presentation styles and build a massive radio station with a strong morning show that could position themselves as a top five 25-54 show in 1-2 years with a staff of pimp air talent. Take off the harness of Hollywood. What spelled doom for KZLA. They quit trying to be a Country Music Radio station and played the Hollywood game. Same with John Sebastian playing Bob Seger and The Eagles. Play the hits and howdy up for LA and Orange County.

 

[hotpatrick2004]

I have noticed as a general rule real niche formats like all 80 r the gen x formats they arent really done in the big markets like chicago new york or los angeles. I guess nicole sandler did not enjoy her time in niche radio (formerly of world class radio 103.1) She seems to be enjoying her time in talk radio.

 

[OC Radio Geek]

OMG really? Stop predicting that KFI will go to FM!!! It will not! KFI will lose tons of listeners if it went to FM. Their signal coverage is awesome on AM.

 

[michael hagerty]

OMG really? Stop predicting that KFI will go to FM!!! It will not! KFI will lose tons of listeners if it went to FM. Their signal coverage is awesome on AM.

When it comes to ad sales, anything more than a marketful is a waste. They make no money being able to hit San Diego and Santa Barbara. A full-signal FM is all they need. And the more salable demos would improve the billing, offsetting the loss of any listeners in difficult reception areas within the market.

 

[michael hagerty]

Here's the scenario. Saul Levine gets tired of Country and screwing the pooch with KKGO. They bail on the format for whatever incarnation of Rock Jeff Pollack talks him into. Then Bonneville readies KSWD their failing Triple A station for Country. Remember they failed at Country in San Francisco, but do real well with it in St. Louis and Cincinnati. In essence, these two station flip formats/intellectual property. KSWD becomes a new Country Music Station and KKGO might rebrand as KLSX (LA Classic Rock calls or better KMET).

With the money Bonneville has sunk into KSWD to get a one share, they would get double in return marketing a Country Music Radio Station in Los Angeles.

Hire a powerhouse Country Music Radio programmer who understands the combination of show-biz and music presentation styles and build a massive radio station with a strong morning show that could position themselves as a top five 25-54 show in 1-2 years with a staff of pimp air talent. Take off the harness of Hollywood. What spelled doom for KZLA. They quit trying to be a Country Music Radio station and played the Hollywood game. Same with John Sebastian playing Bob Seger and The Eagles. Play the hits and howdy up for LA and Orange County.

Not bad. Bonneville has the bucks, discipline and patience that Saul doesn't to execute your plan.
The flaw, I think, is that given the ethnic makeup of the market, a Top 5 25-54 morning show is wildly optimistic, (especially in 1-2 years). Top 10 would be quite an accomplishment. And the format's history in the market (has Country broken a 3.0 12+ in L.A. in the last 30 years?) argues against even that.

If I'm right, that's a decreased potential payoff and you have to wonder how much Bonneville would be willing to invest to maybe be #12 in the demo.

The only way it's a winner for Saul is if Citadel flips KLOS to KABC-FM and gives Saul a wide-open field for rock. Otherwise, he's just swapping the 1.8 he's got doing country for the 1.8 KSWD's got now...if he's lucky.

 

[ChannelFlipper]

>>>>The only way it's a winner for Saul is if Citadel flips KLOS to KABC-FM and gives Saul a wide-open field for rock. Otherwise, he's just swapping the 1.8 he's got doing country for the 1.8 KSWD's got now...if he's lucky.<<<<

Exactly. What is in it for KSWD? They have invested everything into the Classic Rock format for a few years now and it is doing as well as can be expected given the continued existence of KLOS and KCBS-FM ("Jack"). With that sort of investment, why would they simply exchange formats with the same ratings potential, when they have what is probably the superior format between the two.

 

[davideduardo]

With the money Bonneville has sunk into KSWD to get a one share, they would get double in return marketing a Country Music Radio Station in Los Angeles.

KSWD has been averaging in the high 2-share range this year, although the last couple of books have been in the lower two range in 25-54. In any case, this beats KKGO by a considerable margin in the sales demos.

Hire a powerhouse Country Music Radio programmer who understands the combination of show-biz and music presentation styles and build a massive radio station with a strong morning show that could position themselves as a top five 25-54 show in 1-2 years with a staff of pimp air talent.

The country core is 55+. LA is not where young people from Kansas come for a future anymore... now it's young people from Zacatecas. The 18-34 demo is nearly 55% Hispanic. Of the rest, there are near 10% Black, and 12% Asian and another near-10% of Persians, Russians and other immigrants who have zero interest in country for cultural reasons.

So at the young end of 25-54, there is only a few percentage points of audience that might be extremely interested in country... a little more in 35-44, and a bit more in 45-54. But the real core remains outside the sales demos.

A country morning show might manage to be 20th in 25-54, but I would not bet on it. The overall station is going to be in that range no matter how well done it is. You can dress a pig in silk, but it still is a pig.

When you find no country station in the top 5 in Nashville, with 6th, 9th and 11th being the ranking of the stations in the format there, it is obvious that the TSL-oriented nature of the format makes it a poorer performer in PPM markets and a no-go in the large markets where ethnicity and lifestyle place country totally out of the mainstream.

I like country myself, and worked in the format and have been to a few CRS gatherings But in LA, if I mention that I like country, I have never had a reaction that was not a smirk, giggle or outright laughter. This is not a city where wearing boots and big buckles is cool, unless you speak Spanish and like accordeons and tubas.

Even in the IE where Froggy was King, 12+ is off by a third in PPM, and the station is down to 7th in 15-54. Even out in that area country is falling to the change of demographics.

 

[davideduardo]

OMG really? Stop predicting that KFI will go to FM!!! It will not! KFI will lose tons of listeners if it went to FM. Their signal coverage is awesome on AM.

Most cases of tradition talkers going to FM include the AM coninuing in simulcast with the new FM. Look at WSB in Atlanta, another clear channel station at a good low frequency... the AM continues to be the base of the simulcast. Or KSL in SLC, WWL in New Orleans, WOKV in Jacksonville, KCBS (news) in San Francisco, etc.

The problem with AM is the oooooold demographics. FM brings in 35-54 listeners, and boosts the 25-54 sales demo performance. Adding FM nearly always improves the younger demos who like the format but don't like AM. And that's the reason for an FM simulcast.

As has been posted, KFI (or any station) does not make more money based on coverage outside of the LA metro... they may use this as a bonus to break a tie on a competitive sale, but otherwise there is not a lot of value to being listened to in Victorville.

 

[emailfailed]

With all this talk of KFI going to FM I agree Bob Moore should beat Clear Channel to the punch and shake up the market, and surely Mr. Moore would love nothing more.

So, why isn't happening.

Well, I have a feeling the problems and politics at Citadel are likely preventing such a drastic change. Yet, ironically, in the long term the company would be saving a little money shutting down KLOS and replacing it with KABC.

Now the little money saved shutting down KLOS one has to wonder if that would go into the Citadel executive coffers and bank accounts, or if it would be reinvested into recreating the new KABC-FM? After all, it's one thing to move onto FM with their highly desirable demos', but could the flumes of canned, polarizing talk that KABC-AM has been running on retain such listeners on 95.5?

 

[davideduardo]

Now the little money saved shutting down KLOS one has to wonder if that would go into the Citadel executive coffers and bank accounts, or if it would be reinvested into recreating the new KABC-FM? After all, it's one thing to move onto FM with their highly desirable demos', but could the flumes of canned, polarizing talk that KABC-AM has been running on retain such listeners on 95.5?

AM talkers that are of their own account successful in billings and audience are the ones that can add FM and benefit. The biggest benefit, however, is to guarantee the existing high billing levels.

KFI billed over $40 million in 2009, virtually tied with KROQ for #2.

KABC was 19th in billings, $10 million behind #12 KLOS.

Why would KABC be put on the KLOS frequency, sacrificing $25 million in revenue to protect $15 million? The programming is not likely to compete successfully with KFI because it does not do that now.

Folks used to say that bad programming on a 50 kw AM does no better than bad programming on a 1 kw daytimer. The same theory is still sound.

 

[emailfailed]

I figured KLOS was billing much better than KABC, and now being aware of the billing numbers I agree it would be a silly move on Citadel's part, especially given their financial situation. I stand by my original statement that I do not foresee 95.5 becoming KABC-FM anytime this year.

The money I mentioned they could save, so to speak, was in regards to what would likely be most of the KLOS staff being let go.

As I mentioned, KABC has rather bland programming and if they were to do a drastic move to 95.5, perhaps say in reaction to KFI-FM, again I ask, what would they have to offer?

 

[ChannelFlipper]

As I mentioned, KABC has rather bland programming and if they were to do a drastic move to 95.5, perhaps say in reaction to KFI-FM, again I ask, what would they have to offer?

I'm pretty sure David E. just illustrated what they have to offer is... NOTHING. Citadel will sooner simulacast KLOS on KABC than the other way around.

I have offered lengthy diatribes on Citadel's absolute management incompetence before, so I won't repeat them here, but suffice it to say the creativity and programming acumen over there is next to non-existent. What they like is "safe talk radio" which doesn't rock any boats or call attention to themselves. Couple that with their near-open hostility towards successful conservative programming by upper management and you have the building blocks of a programming disaster. So you get what KABC is now. Talk radio for the over 60 set. KABC barely earns a place on the AM dial and will kill whatever frequency it would be put on the FM dial.

 

[AM FM listener]

I never said KABC will simulcast on 95.5. I just said KLOS will go all Talk. 95.5 should remain KLOS but drop the Classic Rock and add more talk hosts after Mark & Brian, including moving Sean Hannity from KABC. KABC has no brand value anymore. Citadel could either trade 790 AM for an FM signal in a smaller market or sell it outright and reinvest the proceeds into the KLOS brand, which is still worth something.

KSWD should sit tight. Bonneville's investment in The Sound will pay off when KLOS goes Talk. Oh, and this might force CC to hurry their KFI-FM plans.