2011 Radio Predictions

[FRR]

WDJO flips to Hispanic Oldies, but goes off the air when listeners tire of hearing a loop of La Bamba, Tequila and Speedy Gonzales over and over.

Don't bet the farm on it.

 

[faaradar]

That goes quadruple for Lady Gaga. ;D
[/quote]

But Lady Gaga can actually sing!

 

[Tri-State Media]

Tracy Jones is fired after his ego grows so big he's unable to get through the WLW studio door.

Nice... but as noted, there's more than one Big Ego at the Big One.

WDJO flips to Hispanic Oldies, but goes off the air when listeners tire of hearing a loop of La Bamba, Tequila and Speedy Gonzales over and over.

Don't bet the farm on it.

I have to agree. WDJO isn't likely to flip.

jry, I'd be very interested in WQRT's plans... you're right, I don't know what else is planned. Whatever it is, I'm confident in saying it doesn't include any former Cincinnati talents who've moved to larger markets. No matter how much anyone may want to have McConnell syndicated back to his former home, I don't see WGN going for that...If I'm wrong, I'll eat my UK hat.

 

[moneymaker]

WDJO flips to Hispanic Oldies, but goes off the air when listeners tire of hearing a loop of La Bamba, Tequila and Speedy Gonzales over and over. 

Don't bet the farm on it.

I have to agree. WDJO isn't likely to flip.

[/quote] 

It was a joke, people.  Sheesh. 
As far as betting the farm on it, I think I'll pass.  Those guys already have enough second mortgages leveraged against that hobby. 

 

[gabigley1]

It was a joke, people. Sheesh.
As far as betting the farm on it, I think I'll pass. Those guys already have enough second mortgages leveraged against that hobby.

Are you saying the guys that own/run WDJO 1480 are running it as if it is their hobby instead of a business venture?

 

[Clinton70]

I wish someone up here in Columbus would pop up a real oldies station like WDJO. We got a True Oldies outlet up here, well done but a rimshot AM.

Wishful thinking...get WDJO on 1530. I can get signal here. I know, wishful thinking.

Anyway, I think the 3p slot at WLW will change obvious.

WEBN could use a poke in the ratings. Not sure what they will do.

Also, where will Eddie Fingers end up? Unless, he already got something and I missed it.

 

[jry]

Working with diligence.

Have you heard the new local news cast?

We cut the other "stringer" service. Using a local pro.

It is no secret that McConnell is on my wish list. I like his work product and him, as a person.

Truly a nice guy.

To that end, i have had a discussion with an old friend that is high up the WGN food chain.

At this writing, your hat is safe.

 

[grey_dan]

R1 will figure something out with Mojo. I think it's poorly programmed musically. The old Mojo 949 was programmed excellent to target both the black and white audience. Let's hope they get it together or it will do worse than Mojo 100.3 as an Urban AC.

Can't disagree that they need to do something with Mojo. Like I've said before, I think the concept is still viable in the market, but it feels like something's lacking. And to compete with WGRR and Rewind in this market, you've got to do it right.

96 Rock will need to improve to survive another year... period. Excellent sounding station, but maybe it's time to do a little more marketing.

I wouldn't be too shocked either way with 96Rock. I'd think Cumulus is happy to be taking a chunk out of WEBN's ratings. But New Rock/Channel Z 97.3 did the same a few years ago (granted, they may have been riding Stern's coattails), and they dropped the ball with that. It will be interesting to see if Cumulus tries to do something with 96Rock, or if they just let it ride.

96.5 has signal issues in Metro Cincinnati regardless of the format. Cumulus will stick with the current format. I believe they will either dump Warm 98 or Radio 94.1. WGRR and WOFX continue as they are.

Personally, I don't really see Cumulus blowing up Warm 98, especially ahead of 96.5 or 94.1. Stranger things have happened, but 98.5 is a heritage signal with an advertiser-friendly format, doing good demos and billing.

Radio 94.1, on the other hand, I could definitely see going away. The problem is, what would they do with that signal? I could come up with a list of "experimental" or unchallenged formats for this market that someone might try to put on 94.1. (Gen X? Urban AC? Rhythmic AC? Gospel on FM? Corporate Latino?) But realistically, I'm not sure a corporate would see this signal as more than a flanker.

--Clear Channel blows up KISS 107, seeking to perhaps turn it into a simulcast (WLW-FM, anyone?).

I don't really see CC blowing up one of their current FMs for a WLW simulcast, at least not yet. Like lovejamminoldies said, Kiss still does very good demo numbers, and I'd add that CC is probably satisfied to have the #1 station in town, even if it's on an AM. And WEBN is unlikely to disappear in the near future. That said, WLW-FM within the next 5-10 years is a definite possibility, IMO.

Of course as Gasping4Airtime said... "Never say never."

--Bonneville continues to have no idea what to do with 94.9... especially since, as noted above, they've added in more current music at times (James Blunt and Kelly Clarkson just since 2 PM EST today??? Even Black Eyed Peas in the 1 PM hour!). It's supposed to be "Feel Good Music from the 80s and More"...just didn't think "and More" meant 2000-2010.

I'm not sure Bonneville feels like it really needs to change its strategy on Rewind. It's doing good numbers, and I'd think good billing. I do agree that the marketing is perhaps a bit misleading. (It seems like almost any time I scan by Rewind, I'm hearing something other than 80s.) But if it's putting ears near the radio and ad dollars in the ledger, I'd think Bonneville is happy. Of course that's my opinion.

And a couple of my own predictions/analyses:

Will 97.3 finally change formats? Given the "Red Kettle Request Party" stunt a couple weeks ago, it doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility.

It will be interesting to see what happens with La Mega 97.7. Ratings got off to a very good start. And while I have no idea what their ad rates are, I've noticed a pretty decent-sized spotload. (With companies you've actually heard of--5/3 Bank, PNC, Cincinnati Zoo Festival of Lights, McDonald's.) Of course their ratings have cooled a bit. Given it's a rimshot signal with a very demo-specific format, and considering the ratings TSJ has pulled in Columbus, I imagine they'll be happy if they can maintain a 0.4 rating with a decent spotload. If it falls much below that, though, La Mega could be placed on death watch.

Finally, thanks to jry and the constant updates on WQRT. I admit, I don't listen much, being in Butler County where the signal is pretty weak (during the hours I'm not working). But I do appreciate the effort you're making to do some things with quality local Talk where, IMO, WLW has dropped the ball. I wish you well. And who knows... if that signal upgrade sends you booming into Hamilton and Oxford, maybe you'll pick up a new listener here.

 

[jry]

Thanks for the kind words and well wishes, Grey.....

 

[del_griffith]

I'm in Columbus and I listen to them on my smart phone using an app called Tune In Radio.

I wish someone up here in Columbus would pop up a real oldies station like WDJO. We got a True Oldies outlet up here, well done but a rimshot AM.

Wishful thinking...get WDJO on 1530. I can get signal here. I know, wishful thinking.

Anyway, I think the 3p slot at WLW will change obvious.

WEBN could use a poke in the ratings. Not sure what they will do.

Also, where will Eddie Fingers end up? Unless, he already got something and I missed it.

 

[Elephant]

WOXY's November numbers were NOT for the La Mega format.  That 103,000 was listening to MAX.  They flipped format late in the month, and those numbers do not represent the new format.  So, it's kind of a misnomer to say they "started off strong."  The new format will have lower cume, but they will be loyal and it will probably make money.

WQRT had better do something soon jry, because the cume is below 19,000.  I realize it's a bad month signal wise, but the programming is not impressive.  I like Laura Ingraham and Dennis Miller, and Ramsey has a following.  Furman's morning show is hard to hear up here for the first hour in January, but what i could hear was OK.  Why does he have to have these no-experience co-hosts?  He didn't do that at WLW or at Supertalk.  It's a huge turn off.  I don't care what these people think.  Where was the local news guy you were talking about?  Didn't hear any local news at all.

The perfect format for 94.1 is country.  B105 is all alone.  The Wolf is not a factor and isn't an effective flanker.  WPFB-FM is beating them.  94.1 could bring back Amanda Orlando and a male host in mornings, and there you go.  No 96.5 type signal problems for 94.1. That's part of the reason WYGY on 96.5 was never a serious threat to overtake B105.

 

[jry]

Thanks Elephant.

In looking at the latest topline numbers from Arb. i noticed that all of the talk stations took a huge dump.
Some of those listeners went to the all Christmas music stations and the others???

On a percentage basis, we took the smallest hit, so to speak.

The talk programs featured have a solid, proven track record, nationally.

At any rate, i fully expect to see the numbers improve into January and February.

 

[grey_dan]

WOXY's November numbers were NOT for the La Mega format.  That 103,000 was listening to MAX.  They flipped format late in the month, and those numbers do not represent the new format.  So, it's kind of a misnomer to say they "started off strong." 

The ratings period apparently started on 11/11 and WOXY flipped on 11/15.  So I stand corrected.

But you might want to point that out to Kiesewetter... He's credited La Mega with the 0.6 on at least three different occasions over the last month or so.  ;D

The perfect format for 94.1 is country.  B105 is all alone.  The Wolf is not a factor and isn't an effective flanker.  WPFB-FM is beating them.  94.1 could bring back Amanda Orlando and a male host in mornings, and there you go.  No 96.5 type signal problems for 94.1.  That's part of the reason WYGY on 96.5 was never a serious threat to overtake B105.

I had actually thought of Country as a possibility for 94.1.  And I certainly agree that room is there for a B105 competitor, as is the air talent (I had also thought of Amanda as a pickup).  But given the way 94.1 has been treated as no more than a flanker for years, I'm not sure Cumulus (or any other corporate) would give competitive Country a real chance on that frequency.

(Another possibility I had thought of was that, if Cumulus was interested in bringing a Country competitor to the market, they could move the Fox back to 94.1--or to 96.5, depending on how committed they are to 96Rock--and give Country a shot at 92.5.  Just a thought.)

And backtracking a bit...

Rewind 949 will end up sounding more like an AC... they've already added currents in there from time to time.

I noticed that the Tune-In Radio app actually lists Rewind as AC.  Of course it has some format designations that I think are a little off (it also lists Radio 94.1 as Alternative and still has Star 93.3 listed as Christmas, for starters).  But I thought the listing of Rewind as AC was interesting, relative to your comment.

 

[Elephant]

Yes, I know that Mr. Kiesewetter has been saying that.  He tends to misinterpret radio ratings on a regular basis, such as attributing the WLW drop to the daytime changes, while completely ignoring the fact that the Reds were on a playoff run and did, in fact, play three playoff games in mid October.  It's very frustrating, and I don't even care about WLW.  A more honest comparison would be to compare the November numbers of 2010 with the November numbers of 2009.  You don't lose 200,000 cume because Mike McConnel and Eddie Fingers left. 

The FOX was on 94.9, and Bonneville - who owns that - would do a much better job of The FOX if they had it on that frequency.

JRY, you can only expect an increase from December, but again listening this morning the show needs Andy to be the host.  Ask his friend to chime in if he needs it, but it sounds like a team show and that other guy added nothing.  Sorry, but WQRT really does sound amateurish.  Not sure what else to say.

 

[radiorob2.0]

My longshot.......

Clear Channel Cincinnati looks at 1360 and says "screw it". They work out a deal with the WDJO folks and put the format on 1360. Fitting since the WSAI call letters are back on the frequency.

 

[jry]

My longshot.......

Clear Channel Cincinnati looks at 1360 and says "screw it". They work out a deal with the WDJO folks and put the format on 1360. Fitting since the WSAI call letters are back on the frequency.

That is interesting. In your scenario, the Kauffmanns would just abandon 1480?

I'll have to look up 1360 and see compare it to 1480.