2026 prediction thread.

[K.M. Richards]

When NBC pulls the plug on The Tonight Show it means they are admitting network tv is dead.

I wouldn't go that far. Late night has been on a decline for some time, overall, and proclaiming the death of network television ignores that prime time is still relatively healthy.

 

[Don CT]

I wouldn't go that far. Late night has been on a decline for some time, overall, and proclaiming the death of network television ignores that prime time is still relatively healthy.

I think NBC has 3 tentpole shows that they hang their hat on. Today, Tonight, and Meet The Press. If any of those 3 go down they are signaling a major shift.

 

[michael hagerty]

Boy, Michael, you took my basic hypothesis and made it sound even more like doom for Fallon!

And ... so much for @Don CT's theory.

If Lorne weren't running late night for NBC, Fallon would have been gone in three years at the outside.

 

[Don CT]

If Lorne weren't running late night for NBC, Fallon would have been gone in three years at the outside.

It Lorne wasn’t running it Fallon never gets hired.

Lorne came in to stabilize the ship after the Conan mess.

 

[K.M. Richards]

I think NBC has 3 tentpole shows that they hang their hat on. Today, Tonight, and Meet The Press. If any of those 3 go down they are signaling a major shift.

I still think that is an overreaction and incorrect. Sorry, but not convinced.

 

[nomadcowatbk]

As for Carson---by the end (not counting the parade of stars during farewell week or month or whatever), I think his was primarily a 55-plus audience. So 88-plus now.

Arsenio was taking younger viewers from Carson, although they didn't air head to head in every market

 

[nomadcowatbk]

The Tonight Show is still the marquee brand in the industry. Would it go on without Fallon.

do legacy brands matter to younger viewers?

 

[Don CT]

I still think that is an overreaction and incorrect. Sorry, but not convinced.

NBC is all about tradition. They won’t cancel name brand shows unless they absolutely have too. CBS wanted out of Late Night, they didn’t care about Colbert.

 

[nomadcowatbk]

When NBC pulls the plug on The Tonight Show it means they are admitting network tv is dead.

maybe except sports, when the NFL leaves free OTA TV is when network TV is dead

 

[Don CT]

do legacy brands matter to younger viewers?

Network TV doesn’t matter to younger viewers.

 

[michael hagerty]

I think NBC has 3 tentpole shows that they hang their hat on. Today, Tonight, and Meet The Press. If any of those 3 go down they are signaling a major shift.

I think you're confusing brands with results.

Today is a close second to GMA. Q3 daily averages:

Good Morning America: 2.64 million

Today: 2.60 million

CBS Mornings: 1.94 million


And NBC's a close second in Sunday mornings, too:

Face the Nation: 2.25 million

Meet the Press: 2.23 million

This Week: 2.07 million


"Tonight" doesn't perform as well as its stablemates. It's been in third place for a looong time. Since before the pandemic. Again, if anyone other than Lorne Michaels was running NBC late night, they'd have changed hosts by now.

 

[Don CT]

I think you're confusing brands with results.

Today is a close second to GMA. Q3 daily averages:

Good Morning America: 2.64 million

Today: 2.60 million

CBS Mornings: 1.94 million


And NBC's a close second in Sunday mornings, too:

Face the Nation: 2.25 million

Meet the Press: 2.23 million

This Week: 2.07 million


"Tonight" doesn't perform as well as its stablemates. It's been in third place for a looong time. Since before the pandemic. Again, if anyone other than Lorne Michaels was running NBC late night, they'd have changed hosts by now.

NBC likes having the longest running show tagline. They use it on MTP all the time.

 

[michael hagerty]

NBC is all about tradition. They won’t cancel name brand shows unless they absolutely have too. CBS wanted out of Late Night, they didn’t care about Colbert.

And you're able to say that because NBC hasn't absolutely had to yet.

They'll dump Late Night with Seth Meyers (which only gets 300,000 fewer viewers than Fallon, despite a 12:35 a.m. start) before they dump Tonight. But I'd start the countdown timer at that moment.

 

[Don CT]

And you're able to say that because NBC hasn't absolutely had to yet.

They'll dump Late Night with Seth Meyers (which only gets 300,000 fewer viewers than Fallon, despite a 12:35 a.m. start) before they dump Tonight. But I'd start the countdown timer at that moment.

Lorne owns that show too. When he retires it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[radiofan2023]

I think NBC has 3 tentpole shows that they hang their hat on. Today, Tonight, and Meet The Press. If any of those 3 go down they are signaling a major shift.

You forgot SNL

 

[michael hagerty]

NBC likes having the longest running show tagline. They use it on MTP all the time.

And nowhere else. They don't tell you the Tonight Show has been on since Steve Allen in the 50s. There's a "prestige" element to Sunday morning political talk shows that doesn't matter in other dayparts.

 

[michael hagerty]

You forgot SNL

Which outperforms Today, Tonight and Meet the Press put together---the average weekly viewership last year was 8.1 million. That's inflated because of the 50th anniversary, but the previous season, it was still 7.2 million, which is more than Today, Tonight and MTP combined.

 

[michael hagerty]

And let's remember. NBC killed Tomorrow when Snyder left. They could have put in another host. It could have been Tomorrow with Bob Costas instead of
Later with Bob Costas (a show that they did change hosts on before killing it outright after 13 years).

 

[tall_guy1]

Can something be both a "marquee brand" and in third place?

The Q3 nightly average:

Late Show with Stephen Colbert: 2.8 million viewers.

Jimmy Kimmel Live!: 1.8 million viewers.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: 1.2 million viewers.

This to me is like calling something "The Cadillac of..." in the 1990s.

NBC doesn't sell a "brand". It sells viewers to advertisers.

I think (and I've said this before) Fallon stays as long as Lorne Michaels is in charge of NBC late night programming. Once Lorne's gone, all bets are off, and not just for Jimmy, but for the show itself.

As for Carson---by the end (not counting the parade of stars during farewell week or month or whatever), I think his was primarily a 55-plus audience. So 88-plus now.

I'm about to turn 70. I like Johnny. I watched Johnny---sometimes. Overall, though, that was my parents' show, and I was thrilled when Letterman came along to turn the genre on its head.

NBC's brand is kind of midbrow programming at a general adult/family audience judging from the Peacock catalogue.

 

[K.M. Richards]

NBC likes having the longest running show tagline. They use it on MTP all the time.

And nowhere else. They don't tell you the Tonight Show has been on since Steve Allen in the 50s. There's a "prestige" element to Sunday morning political talk shows that doesn't matter in other dayparts.

NBC uses that tagline on MTP because it's not only true, it's kinda cool to say.

First airdates for the big three networks' Sunday news/politics talk shows:
Meet The Press: November 6, 1947
Face The Nation: November 7, 1954
This Week: November 15, 1981 (originally "with David Brinkley" until his retirement in 1996, "with George Stephanopoulos" since 2012). Its predecessor, Issues And Answers, began November 27, 1960.

It should also be noted that in the early days of network television, these programs ran on Sunday afternoon, not mornings.