C
chumbucket
Guest
Both of these stations should do something else.Which one will flip formats first,and why?
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95X vs.The Dog.Who flips first?Intelligent answers only,please.
Re: 95X vs. The Dog. Who flips first?
> Both of these stations should do something else. Which one
> will flip formats first, and why?
Assuming they're both going to flip, I think I'd have to put my money on 95X. And here's why... they're "the biggest loser" in all of this. Yes, 95X may be several ranks above The Dog when you look at the P12+ numbers... but the slide from 6.0 to 3.2 (last summer to this summer) is more dramatic than The Dog going from a 3.0 to a 1.7.
Also, consider that 95X was once more of a "key player" in the market, while The Dog is, and has always been, the "bastard stepchild" of the CC cluster since it replaced a B104.7 simulcast not too long ago. I think the expectations Citadel has for a heritage station like 95X are much higher than those CC has of The Dog.
Even though Farid himself supposedly gave the green light to dump Howard Stern earlier than expected, the higher-ups at Citadel can't ignore the fact that a station that's been around as long as 95X, and that has been as successful at 95X previously was... is now getting only a 3 share with little or no hope of getting back the numbers it enjoyed in the past.
To look at it another way, 95X got beat by BOTH K-Rock and TK99... stations that were only in the fours when 95X had 6, one year ago. Had it sunk another 2/10 of a share, 95X would have even been beat by The Friggin' Music of Your Life on WTLA!
On the other hand, The Dog has been beaten by all of these stations in all of the past five books. They're used to it, and again, if it's the "bastard stepchild" of the cluster, ClearChannel probably doesn't care.
To sum it up, in the grand scheme of things, I'd say 95X's situation seems more desparate than The Dog's... so they're more likely to flip first. But that's just based on the P12+ numbers, and I know those of you "in the know" with access to the actual books probably have a hundred reasons as to why I am wrong.
> Both of these stations should do something else. Which one
> will flip formats first, and why?
Assuming they're both going to flip, I think I'd have to put my money on 95X. And here's why... they're "the biggest loser" in all of this. Yes, 95X may be several ranks above The Dog when you look at the P12+ numbers... but the slide from 6.0 to 3.2 (last summer to this summer) is more dramatic than The Dog going from a 3.0 to a 1.7.
Also, consider that 95X was once more of a "key player" in the market, while The Dog is, and has always been, the "bastard stepchild" of the CC cluster since it replaced a B104.7 simulcast not too long ago. I think the expectations Citadel has for a heritage station like 95X are much higher than those CC has of The Dog.
Even though Farid himself supposedly gave the green light to dump Howard Stern earlier than expected, the higher-ups at Citadel can't ignore the fact that a station that's been around as long as 95X, and that has been as successful at 95X previously was... is now getting only a 3 share with little or no hope of getting back the numbers it enjoyed in the past.
To look at it another way, 95X got beat by BOTH K-Rock and TK99... stations that were only in the fours when 95X had 6, one year ago. Had it sunk another 2/10 of a share, 95X would have even been beat by The Friggin' Music of Your Life on WTLA!
On the other hand, The Dog has been beaten by all of these stations in all of the past five books. They're used to it, and again, if it's the "bastard stepchild" of the cluster, ClearChannel probably doesn't care.
To sum it up, in the grand scheme of things, I'd say 95X's situation seems more desparate than The Dog's... so they're more likely to flip first. But that's just based on the P12+ numbers, and I know those of you "in the know" with access to the actual books probably have a hundred reasons as to why I am wrong.
M
meangene
Guest
> Both of these stations should do something else.Which one
> will flip formats first,and why?
>
I would say, The Dog, Clear Channel is losing millions with less is more, what better way to get rid of a whole staff and save money. 95x needs to do more to rebuild it's image in Syracuse. Because lets face it, the answer to Satallite radio and formats with no jocks is to be more local.
> will flip formats first,and why?
>
I would say, The Dog, Clear Channel is losing millions with less is more, what better way to get rid of a whole staff and save money. 95x needs to do more to rebuild it's image in Syracuse. Because lets face it, the answer to Satallite radio and formats with no jocks is to be more local.
> Both of these stations should do something else.Which one
> will flip formats first,and why?
They both need to act and they need to act NOW.
The Dog has nothing to lose by flipping. Very little risk involved here. They have dog doo for ratings...Flipping could only help.
X needs CPR immediately. They didnt really have a plan after Howard. If they care to rescue anything from what used to be a Heritage rock station, they need to breath some life into it, and it seems like they're just watching it suffer.
A new morning show. A freshened format...something, anything...
> will flip formats first,and why?
They both need to act and they need to act NOW.
The Dog has nothing to lose by flipping. Very little risk involved here. They have dog doo for ratings...Flipping could only help.
X needs CPR immediately. They didnt really have a plan after Howard. If they care to rescue anything from what used to be a Heritage rock station, they need to breath some life into it, and it seems like they're just watching it suffer.
A new morning show. A freshened format...something, anything...
Woof
The Dog was designed to flank 95X and maybe K-Rock. Since it failed miserably in that mission, neither of those stations is currently much of a threat to CC, and "modern/active/alternative rock" is getting killed all over the country, I think The Dog will go first.
Now, what do you flip it to? Jack? That could put a hurtin' on Y94, so I doubt that's a reasonable direction. FM Talk? Over Reith's moribund body.
Move it toward Classic Rock to nip away at TK? That sounds more reasonable. Classic Hits, focused on the 65 - 85 era? That hits TK AND WSEN both where it hurts. Hmmmmm.
95X rebuilds itself with David Lee Roth in the morning, Stone in PM drive, a new mid-day show (maybe Adam Carolla on West Coast time), and non-rap 25-34 rock music. I figure they've got through the Spring book next year to recover or die.
The Dog was designed to flank 95X and maybe K-Rock. Since it failed miserably in that mission, neither of those stations is currently much of a threat to CC, and "modern/active/alternative rock" is getting killed all over the country, I think The Dog will go first.
Now, what do you flip it to? Jack? That could put a hurtin' on Y94, so I doubt that's a reasonable direction. FM Talk? Over Reith's moribund body.
Move it toward Classic Rock to nip away at TK? That sounds more reasonable. Classic Hits, focused on the 65 - 85 era? That hits TK AND WSEN both where it hurts. Hmmmmm.
95X rebuilds itself with David Lee Roth in the morning, Stone in PM drive, a new mid-day show (maybe Adam Carolla on West Coast time), and non-rap 25-34 rock music. I figure they've got through the Spring book next year to recover or die.
Re: Woof
X & The Dog (Hey, not a bad name for a morning radio or TV cop show) are both playing a dangerous endgame, waiting for each other to flip formats, so the last one standing can pounce on the scraps and limp forward toward respectability. It's the radio version of a scared defensive posture. Problem is: the longer they wait, the more damage they do to their own poorly programmed products. You can sit and watch your own reservoir drain away for only so long, hoping for water from another source...but if you wait too long and your pool goes completely dry, sometimes there is no recovery. (James Earl Jones should be narrating this crap.)
As for morning show fill-ins for the departing Howard Stern, no one wants to be the one replacing a legend. Everyone of quality who was approached (aka Jon Stewart) said "no thanks" to the proposition. David Lee Roth is only the "first man in." An all-to-eager sacrificial lamb. Someone to absorb the cannon fire from the media and critics and fans. Unfortunately, Beaner & Ken (despite the fact that they're not a good fit for a Rock station anyway) ARE the lambs at X. It will be the next wave of replacements (or rival morning shows) that will be the big ratings winners. If X turns to DLR in January and he fails (which is likely as I'll detail below), then they'll be TWO replacement morning shows removed from Howard.
Think about what's being asked of DLR. Produce an entertaining morning radio show. And win. In major markets. And do it right away. This is a guy with ZERO experience at this job. When Howard Stern got started, he cut his teeth on stations in Westchester county, Detroit, and Hartford before he was ready to hit the big time in NY, Philly, and DC. Roth is no more ready for this radio gig than Stern would be as the next lead singer of Van Halen!
Conclusion: X has to flip 1st.
X & The Dog (Hey, not a bad name for a morning radio or TV cop show) are both playing a dangerous endgame, waiting for each other to flip formats, so the last one standing can pounce on the scraps and limp forward toward respectability. It's the radio version of a scared defensive posture. Problem is: the longer they wait, the more damage they do to their own poorly programmed products. You can sit and watch your own reservoir drain away for only so long, hoping for water from another source...but if you wait too long and your pool goes completely dry, sometimes there is no recovery. (James Earl Jones should be narrating this crap.)
As for morning show fill-ins for the departing Howard Stern, no one wants to be the one replacing a legend. Everyone of quality who was approached (aka Jon Stewart) said "no thanks" to the proposition. David Lee Roth is only the "first man in." An all-to-eager sacrificial lamb. Someone to absorb the cannon fire from the media and critics and fans. Unfortunately, Beaner & Ken (despite the fact that they're not a good fit for a Rock station anyway) ARE the lambs at X. It will be the next wave of replacements (or rival morning shows) that will be the big ratings winners. If X turns to DLR in January and he fails (which is likely as I'll detail below), then they'll be TWO replacement morning shows removed from Howard.
Think about what's being asked of DLR. Produce an entertaining morning radio show. And win. In major markets. And do it right away. This is a guy with ZERO experience at this job. When Howard Stern got started, he cut his teeth on stations in Westchester county, Detroit, and Hartford before he was ready to hit the big time in NY, Philly, and DC. Roth is no more ready for this radio gig than Stern would be as the next lead singer of Van Halen!
Conclusion: X has to flip 1st.
Shirley, you jest
Shirley, you're missing one massive chunk of the picture.
Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard. Howard's gone. Howard's been gone for 11 months.
Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken, Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a Herculanean task.
If Gomer is really gone at Citadel, that's step 1. If I were Alexis, I wouldn't be signing any long-term loan deals real soon.
Shirley, you're missing one massive chunk of the picture.
Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard. Howard's gone. Howard's been gone for 11 months.
Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken, Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a Herculanean task.
If Gomer is really gone at Citadel, that's step 1. If I were Alexis, I wouldn't be signing any long-term loan deals real soon.
Re: Shirley, you jest
the brain trust on James Street is paralyzed with indecision...they're determined to ride this horse til it collapses because to do otherwise would require bold leadership and proactive thinking, which has been lacking for years...
I don't see any major moves in this Market for the forseeable future,it's all 'wait&see'......
> Shirley, you're missing one massive chunk of the picture.
>
> Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard. Howard's
> gone. Howard's been gone for 11 months.
>
> Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken,
> Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a
> Herculanean task.
>
> If Gomer is really gone at Citadel, that's step 1. If I were
> Alexis, I wouldn't be signing any long-term loan deals real
> soon.
>
the brain trust on James Street is paralyzed with indecision...they're determined to ride this horse til it collapses because to do otherwise would require bold leadership and proactive thinking, which has been lacking for years...
I don't see any major moves in this Market for the forseeable future,it's all 'wait&see'......
> Shirley, you're missing one massive chunk of the picture.
>
> Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard. Howard's
> gone. Howard's been gone for 11 months.
>
> Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken,
> Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a
> Herculanean task.
>
> If Gomer is really gone at Citadel, that's step 1. If I were
> Alexis, I wouldn't be signing any long-term loan deals real
> soon.
>
Herculean
> Shirley, you're missing one massive chunk of the picture.
>
> Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard. Howard's
> gone. Howard's been gone for 11 months.
>
> Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken,
> Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a
> Herculanean task.
>
> If Gomer is really gone at Citadel, that's step 1. If I were
> Alexis, I wouldn't be signing any long-term loan deals real
> soon.
>
> Shirley, you're missing one massive chunk of the picture.
>
> Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard. Howard's
> gone. Howard's been gone for 11 months.
>
> Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken,
> Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a
> Herculanean task.
>
> If Gomer is really gone at Citadel, that's step 1. If I were
> Alexis, I wouldn't be signing any long-term loan deals real
> soon.
>
Re: Herculean
I stand corrected.
The idea is that it's hardly a Sisyphusian task for DLR to accomplish.
I stand corrected.
The idea is that it's hardly a Sisyphusian task for DLR to accomplish.
Re: Shirley, you jest
> Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard.> Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken,
> Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a
> Herculanean task.
That may be true HERE, but David Lee Roth can't survive just on being #1 in Syracuse. He'll be up against "real" talent in many other markets. According to an article at mtv.com, some of those bigger markets include "New York, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Dallas and West Palm Beach, Florida."
I have to agree with Shirley... he'll be up against competitors who have presumably been in radio for a long time, working their way up to the major markets just like Stern did. And they've all known Stern is leaving... if they're smart, they've been preparing.
If the bigger markets are successful against Roth, it won't matter how good he does in Syracuse... syndicated shows live and die on the big markets.
> Diamond Dave doesn't have to compete with Howard.> Diamond Dave has to compete with the memory of Beaner & Ken,
> Lunch Box, Gomez & Dave, and Scorch. That ain't exactly a
> Herculanean task.
That may be true HERE, but David Lee Roth can't survive just on being #1 in Syracuse. He'll be up against "real" talent in many other markets. According to an article at mtv.com, some of those bigger markets include "New York, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Dallas and West Palm Beach, Florida."
I have to agree with Shirley... he'll be up against competitors who have presumably been in radio for a long time, working their way up to the major markets just like Stern did. And they've all known Stern is leaving... if they're smart, they've been preparing.
If the bigger markets are successful against Roth, it won't matter how good he does in Syracuse... syndicated shows live and die on the big markets.
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