A Few Corrections Mr. Eduardo.... :)

[brucekelly]

.....with all due respect David........

"There are 8 million satellite radios installed, nearly all
in cars. Because just a tad less than 33% of all listening
takes place in cars, the 8 million are the equivalent of 2.6
million full usage radio users."

At present, approximately two-thirds of satellite receivers sold by XM and Sirius are transportable devices such as plug and play and handheld units. The rest are in-car units.

Also, your methodology of dividing subs & # of channels in order to reach some sort of cume is flawed and provides inaccurate totals.

One must be familiar with the gateway/boutique structure of the content platform and must see the exact in-house figs to make any sort of quantitative
projections or analysis.

bk
[email protected]
301 . 471 . 7728

 

[davideduardo]

> .....with all due respect David........
>
> "There are 8 million satellite radios installed, nearly all
> in cars. Because just a tad less than 33% of all listening
>
> takes place in cars, the 8 million are the equivalent of
> 2.6
> million full usage radio users."
>
> At present, approximately two-thirds of satellite receivers
> sold by XM and Sirius are transportable devices such as plug
> and play and handheld units. The rest are in-car units.

I was just using the "simple math" to verify what is seen in radio diary analysis. The real test is in counting the quarter hours, which yields about 0.3 to 0.4 shares in every market that I know has been tabbed. The "simple math" actually gives a higher share, since it does not discount for the fact that not everyone listens to XM all the time.

According to my XM press releases and shareholder reports, the bulk of the market is new car installs, representing over 80% of installations. The aftermarket is mostly portable, but that is the smallest part of the formula right now.

>
> Also, your methodology of dividing subs & # of channels in
> order to reach some sort of cume is flawed and provides
> inaccurate totals.

I did not divide any number of channels. Since there is no accredited ratings by channel, I simply go by the subscriber base. In fact, I did not even discount the installs in cars that are still in dearler lots... a flaw that several investment analysts have pointed out as a "bubble" in the XM and Sirius reporting method which inflates installs and does not compensate for unsold units.
>
> One must be familiar with the gateway/boutique structure of
> the content platform and must see the exact in-house figs to
> make any sort of quantitative
> projections or analysis.

I am familiar enough, having, like you, programmed XM channels and gone through all the hype-filled meetings and gotten all the rehashed Lee Abrams memos. the real issue is "how many people are listening?" and that can be done using the Arbitron diary analysis software in Columbia with great ease.

 

[AZJoe]

> > I am listening, and that is what counts (both XM& Sirius here). ;-)
> >
>
>

 

[brucekelly]

Again........with all due respect David........

"I was just using the "simple math" to verify what is seen in
radio diary analysis."

Radio diary analysis does not apply here, unless, you are using
it in reference to specific market listening and penetration
of XM channels into the diary methodology.

I'm sure you understand that actual channel listening habits are
quite different when you measure the finite universe of the XM
content platform. Hence, my comments to a previous post of your
claiming "....Unfortunately, he is talking to a small constituency."

And, Arbitron measurement of SDARS is certainly NOT based on the
flawed, diary based measurement system currently used for terrestrial
radio.

I'm also sure you're aware of ARB's adjustments coming soon in 2006/7 diaries
specifically to address SDARS.

"According to my XM press releases and shareholder reports, the bulk of the market is new car installs, representing over 80% of installations. The aftermarket is mostly portable, but that is the smallest part of the formula right now."


As an investor and PD from day one that is very familiar with the #'s, I can assure you that is incorrect. Please refer to GM/Honda et. al P.R. and also 10/8 K releases.

"Since there is no accredited ratings by channel......"

Wrong. See previous statements.

"In fact, I did not even discount the installs in cars
that are still in dearler lots... a flaw that several
investment analysts have pointed out as a "bubble" in the XM
and Sirius reporting method which inflates installs and does
not compensate for unsold units."

Wrong. Please refer to 10/8 K releases concerning XM sub accountability.
Sirius is the company that has been critized over the summer with questionable
sub accounting procedures.

"I am familiar enough, having, like you, programmed XM
channels and gone through all the hype-filled meetings and
gotten all the rehashed Lee Abrams memos....."

Excuse me for my lapse of memory David, but, after five years, I was never aware of your presence @ any XM Programming extended bootcamps or programmers meetings.

Quite possibly you were part of a 3rd Party meeting of outside partners.

I wish you had introduced yourself so we could have a more personal foundation to base our occasional duels upon.

"The real issue is how many people are listening?, and that can be done using
the Arbitron diary analysis software in Columbia with great ease."

Once again, that would only pertain to diary penetration within a specific
market......not actual XM subs listening to a specific channel.

And......in regards to your comments above about Mr. Abrams:

David, I served with Lee Abrams. I know Lee Abrams. Lee Abrams is a friend of mine. Mr. Eduardo, you're no Lee Abrams."

bk
[email protected]
301 . 471 . 7728

 

[davideduardo]

> Again........with all due respect David........
>
> "I was just using the "simple math" to verify what is seen
> in
> radio diary analysis."
>
> Radio diary analysis does not apply here, unless, you are
> using
> it in reference to specific market listening and penetration
>
> of XM channels into the diary methodology.

The diary methodology reports radio listening. It appears that most markets have 0.3% to 0.4% of radio listening going to satellite radio. Period. I have verified this, and others doing diary analysis have done this.

It is very simple to sum the quarter hours, get market quarter hours for 100% and divide. 0.3% is what I got in LA, for example.
>
> I'm sure you understand that actual channel listening habits
> are
> quite different when you measure the finite universe of the
> XM
> content platform. Hence, my comments to a previous post of
> your
> claiming "....Unfortunately, he is talking to a small
> constituency."

the actual channel listening is infinitely smaller, as the total listening share of 0.3 is divideed into several hundred discreet channels. However, all are satellite, and all I am interested in in this instance is the usage of satellite radio vs. the usage of terrestrial radio.
>
> And, Arbitron measurement of SDARS is certainly NOT based on
> the
> flawed, diary based measurement system currently used for
> terrestrial
> radio.

There is no flaw in the diary system as to reporting radio usage. The flaw in the system, and why it wlil be replaced by the PPM, is in delivery speed and the inability to compare on a ¨like kind¨ basis other electronic media. Radio is pretty happy with the cost-benefit model of the diary. I tis advertisers who want radio to spend about 50% more to do the PPM, which will give fraster results and cross-platform analysis.
>
> I'm also sure you're aware of ARB's adjustments coming soon
> in 2006/7 diaries
> specifically to address SDARS.

Actually, Arbitron decided not to name satellite specifically, just as it does not name AM or FM specifically in the cover letter or diary instructions. To name any delivery method for radio would bias the survey.
>
> "Since there is no accredited ratings by channel......"
>
> Wrong. See previous statements.

There is no accredited ratings by channel. The MRC has not accredited the satellite ratings Arbitron does. It is an in-house study to determine programming effectivenessw, but is not accredited.
>
> "In fact, I did not even discount the installs in cars
> that are still in dearler lots... a flaw that several
> investment analysts have pointed out as a "bubble" in the
> XM
> and Sirius reporting method which inflates installs and
> does
> not compensate for unsold units."
>
> Wrong. Please refer to 10/8 K releases concerning XM sub
> accountability.
> Sirius is the company that has been critized over the summer
> with questionable
> sub accounting procedures.

And XM on its Q2 call said ¨they would look into this.¨ There is reasonable doubt in the accounting for subscriptions vs. installs.
>
> "I am familiar enough, having, like you, programmed XM
> channels and gone through all the hype-filled meetings and
> gotten all the rehashed Lee Abrams memos....."
>
> Excuse me for my lapse of memory David, but, after five
> years, I was never aware of your presence @ any XM
> Programming extended bootcamps or programmers meetings.

They conducted a whole series of meetings for us, specifically, and for our 5 channels.
>
> Quite possibly you were part of a 3rd Party meeting of
> outside partners.

Yep.

> "The real issue is how many people are listening?, and that
> can be done using
> the Arbitron diary analysis software in Columbia with great
> ease."
>
> Once again, that would only pertain to diary penetration
> within a specific
> market......not actual XM subs listening to a specific
> channel.

I hope the confusion was not my fault. I was never speaking of individual channels. If Sirius and XM combined have less than a half share-point, any one channel is onto going to hav emuch more than a 0.01 share on average.
>
> David, I served with Lee Abrams. I know Lee Abrams. Lee
> Abrams is a friend of mine. Mr. Eduardo, you're no Lee
> Abrams."

Thankfully. The gods have smiled on me.

 

[ummmmmmmm]

David,

>
> There is no flaw in the diary system as to reporting radio
> usage. The flaw in the system, and why it wlil be replaced
> by the PPM, is in delivery speed and the inability to
> compare on a ¨like kind¨ basis other electronic media. Radio
> is pretty happy with the cost-benefit model of the diary. I
> tis advertisers who want radio to spend about 50% more to do
> the PPM, which will give fraster results and cross-platform
> analysis.
> >

Any ratings methodology that has people write down every station they listen to and exactly how long they listened is FLAWED beyond beleif. And any radio executive, program director or talent will tell you that. It's archaic and completely biased towards radio stations that have heritage and top of mind. The PPM trials in both Philly and, I think, Houston showed that when the PPM was in use the ratings were significantly different. Radio does have a problem with the diary system and any numbers you derive from those surveys are just as flawed.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Incorrrect...

> I've read your posts for a while now and I gotta tell
> you. You really come across as a wanna be know it all.

Funny. Everything I have ever wanted to do, I have done. Much of that I am still doing. Wannabee? Hardly. Overworked, yep.
>
>
> Any ratings methodology that has people write down every
> station they listen to and exactly how long they listened is
> FLAWED beyond beleif. And any radio executive, program
> director or talent will tell you that.

I am both of the first two you mention, and I do not find the sytem "flawed beyond belief." I don't know anyone who feels that the system is so seriously damaged as to be unreliable or wrong.

The two defects in the diary method are slow delivery time and the inability to do cross paltform comparisons with other electronic media. Both will be resolved by the PPM.

Delivery time is caused by the lag in the US Mail return and the manual processing, including ascription, of the diary entries. The PPM allows virtual overnight processing and delivery.

Since the PPM will measure all sources with audio, including radio, satellite radio, internet radio, tv, cable and satellite TV, we will have cross platform data, simultanteously with the same sample.

> It's archaic and
> completely biased towards radio stations that have heritage
> and top of mind.

Actually, something like 90% of diary entries are by dial position, not by name, calls or program title. Or they are a combination of rfrequency and slogan or program or host. The frequency is "read" off the digital dial. Heritage has very little to do with it any more.

What does get lost in the diary is very light listening, like that one time visit to the news station beforre the weekend getaway to check the weather... the PPM captures this.

> The PPM trials in both Philly and, I
> think, Houston showed that when the PPM was in use the
> ratings were significantly different.

I have the data on both, and was part of an Arbitron committee or panel on the Philly tests. The share, and AQH persons, in Philly paralleled the diary nearly 100%. In fact, the conclusion at last year's Consultant's Fly In was, "The PPM proved how accurate the diary actually is."

What changes is the capturing of the P4 and beyond usages... light usages. This raises each station's cume a lot, but reduces the TSL since the average listening span decreases. However, the increased cume and decreased TSL yields a nearly identical AQH share and persons estimate.

Since radio advertising is bough on share (or rating, which are the same thing expressed differently) and AQH persons, there is no change. The PPM DID prove that the diary is a very good methodology, but it lascks int he two 21st Century needs mentioned above.

> Radio does have a
> problem with the diary system and any numbers you derive
> from those surveys are just as flawed.

Which, of course, is wrong. The diary method is accredited by the MRC, while the meter still is not. One is accepted by advertisers, and the other is still in testing. About $20 billion in radio advertising is placed yearly based on the radio diary, and over a hundred billion based ont he TV diary. The diary is the accepted measurement system in dozens of countries, and will be until the PPM in some form is implemented... still a big "if" due to the huge increase in costs and the lack of buy in by several major broadcasters.
>

 

[ironbear]

God, I love this board. 8o)

 

[johndavis]

Re: Incorrrect...

> Since the PPM will measure all sources with audio, including
> radio, satellite radio, internet radio, tv, cable and
> satellite TV, we will have cross platform data,
> simultanteously with the same sample.

How will the PPM track satellite or internet radio?<P ID="signature">______________
...co-moderator of the Satellite Radio, Phoenix, and San Diego boards...</P>

 

[ummmmmmmm]

Re: Incorrrect...

I edited the post because I didn't want to resort to name-calling. Also, I took a look a your website and after reading your credentials felt you deserved more respect than that.

Although you've accomplished much in your career, some of your ideas are off base. Argue me line by line as you have done with many of your 6500 posts. It won't change that in my 20 years of experience I've met literally hundreds of radio professionals who feel the current diary system is flawed. I feel that way as well.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Incorrrect...

> > Since the PPM will measure all sources with audio,
> including
> > radio, satellite radio, internet radio, tv, cable and
> > satellite TV, we will have cross platform data,
> > simultanteously with the same sample.
>
> How will the PPM track satellite or internet radio?
>

Anything that is encoded will be registered. When PPM is finished testing, encoders will be offered to all who have audio signals.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Incorrrect...

> Although you've accomplished much in your career, some of
> your ideas are off base. Argue me line by line as you have
> done with many of your 6500 posts. It won't change that in
> my 20 years of experience I've met literally hundreds of
> radio professionals who feel the current diary system is
> flawed. I feel that way as well.
>

Ratings are _always_ flawed if your numbers go down. They are accurate only if you stay the same or increase.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Incorrrect...

> > Since the PPM will measure all sources with audio,
> including
> > radio, satellite radio, internet radio, tv, cable and
> > satellite TV, we will have cross platform data,
> > simultanteously with the same sample.
>
> How will the PPM track satellite or internet radio?
>

I forgot to mention... in Houston, which is a test, there is even encoding of storecasts at some retail outlets. Any audio that is mass distributed can be encoded.

 

[musicloverII]

Bruce, you may as well talk to a wall with this guy. There really is no DUE RESPECT. It's nice that you offer it but when it comes to someone who talks so much and slants so much and makes up so much, it's a waste of time. You on the other hand... It's nice to see another dinosaur among us, one who knows what he's talking about and isn't a one track mouthpiece of errors and misconceptions presented as truth. You sir deserve DUE RESPECT.

> Again........with all due respect David........
>
> "I was just using the "simple math" to verify what is seen
> in
> radio diary analysis."
>
> Radio diary analysis does not apply here, unless, you are
> using
> it in reference to specific market listening and penetration
>
> of XM channels into the diary methodology.
>
> I'm sure you understand that actual channel listening habits
> are
> quite different when you measure the finite universe of the
> XM
> content platform. Hence, my comments to a previous post of
> your
> claiming "....Unfortunately, he is talking to a small
> constituency."
>
> And, Arbitron measurement of SDARS is certainly NOT based on
> the
> flawed, diary based measurement system currently used for
> terrestrial
> radio.
>
> I'm also sure you're aware of ARB's adjustments coming soon
> in 2006/7 diaries
> specifically to address SDARS.
>
> "According to my XM press releases and shareholder reports,
> the bulk of the market is new car installs, representing
> over 80% of installations. The aftermarket is mostly
> portable, but that is the smallest part of the formula right
> now."
>
>
> As an investor and PD from day one that is very familiar
> with the #'s, I can assure you that is incorrect. Please
> refer to GM/Honda et. al P.R. and also 10/8 K releases.
>
> "Since there is no accredited ratings by channel......"
>
> Wrong. See previous statements.
>
> "In fact, I did not even discount the installs in cars
> that are still in dearler lots... a flaw that several
> investment analysts have pointed out as a "bubble" in the
> XM
> and Sirius reporting method which inflates installs and
> does
> not compensate for unsold units."
>
> Wrong. Please refer to 10/8 K releases concerning XM sub
> accountability.
> Sirius is the company that has been critized over the summer
> with questionable
> sub accounting procedures.
>
> "I am familiar enough, having, like you, programmed XM
> channels and gone through all the hype-filled meetings and
> gotten all the rehashed Lee Abrams memos....."
>
> Excuse me for my lapse of memory David, but, after five
> years, I was never aware of your presence @ any XM
> Programming extended bootcamps or programmers meetings.
>
> Quite possibly you were part of a 3rd Party meeting of
> outside partners.
>
> I wish you had introduced yourself so we could have a more
> personal foundation to base our occasional duels upon.
>
> "The real issue is how many people are listening?, and that
> can be done using
> the Arbitron diary analysis software in Columbia with great
> ease."
>
> Once again, that would only pertain to diary penetration
> within a specific
> market......not actual XM subs listening to a specific
> channel.
>
> And......in regards to your comments above about Mr. Abrams:
>
>
> David, I served with Lee Abrams. I know Lee Abrams. Lee
> Abrams is a friend of mine. Mr. Eduardo, you're no Lee
> Abrams."
>
> bk
> [email protected]
> 301 . 471 . 7728
>

 

[MarkAndrews]

Dear Musiclover...

> Bruce, you may as well talk to a wall with this guy. There
> really is no DUE RESPECT. It's nice that you offer it but
> when it comes to someone who talks so much and slants so
> much and makes up so much, it's a waste of time. You on the
> other hand... It's nice to see another dinosaur among us,
> one who knows what he's talking about and isn't a one track
> mouthpiece of errors and misconceptions presented as truth.
> You sir deserve DUE RESPECT.



I don't agree with everything Mr. Eduardo puts forth, either...
But this is one other radio dinosaur that's learned more than a thing or
three from a professional with a successful track record that has been
willing to take some time to share a few points with us. I, for one, usually enjoy observing the discourse. Disagree? That's fine! Just be civil about it...

 

[davideduardo]

> Bruce, you may as well talk to a wall with this guy. There
> really is no DUE RESPECT. It's nice that you offer it but
> when it comes to someone who talks so much and slants so
> much and makes up so much, it's a waste of time.

I have called you on these accusations of lying before, but you do not answer.

One thing is to have a dfference of opinion on a radio related issue. Since there is no "one right way" to do radio, the more opinions the better. That's a valid area for spirited and even contentious debate.

But when it comes to facts, it's expected that there be some form of substantiation.

One of my first encounters with you had you claiming that reggaeton would not be successful untill it crossed over out of the Hispanic environment. The fact is that reggaeton has been and is successful among Hispanics with no need for crossover at all.

You simply just do not like facts... as they get in the way of your opinions.

 

[mike704]

Re: Incorrrect...

> > Any ratings methodology that has people write down
> every
> > station they listen to and exactly how long they listened
> is
> > FLAWED beyond beleif. And any radio executive, program
> > director or talent will tell you that.

Yep having been in the business for 32 years it is flawed beyond belief. Does anyone really think people care enough to write down what stations they listened to? Most if they bother at all fill it out on the last day. I'll bet there is more than just a little guesswork going on there.

Good book or bad everyone knows where the diaries are placed can spell win or lose.

> > It's archaic and
> > completely biased towards radio stations that have
> heritage
> > and top of mind.

AGREED!

> Actually, something like 90% of diary entries are by dial
> position, not by name, calls or program title. Or they are a
> combination of rfrequency and slogan or program or host. The
> frequency is "read" off the digital dial. Heritage has very
> little to do with it any more.

If they were filling it out as they go along...maybe. Come back to the real world do you really think people care enough to do that? Again it gets filled out on the last day, not very accurate.

A lady called me once and referred to every station she talked about as WQAM. I bet WQAM would love for her to fill out a diary.

> What does get lost in the diary is very light listening,
> like that one time visit to the news station beforre the
> weekend getaway to check the weather... the PPM captures
> this.

Programmers wake up. That big sucking noise you hear are people turning off the radio and listening to their ipods, internet and CD's. You need to give them something they can't get anywhere else and you better hurry!

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Incorrrect...

>
> Yep having been in the business for 32 years it is flawed
> beyond belief. Does anyone really think people care enough
> to write down what stations they listened to? Most if they
> bother at all fill it out on the last day. I'll bet there
> is more than just a little guesswork going on there.

What is missed, as proven by the PPM tests, is very occasional ligt listening. Other than that, the diary tracks very perfectly the diary results. It´s mail problem is speed of deliveryk, not accuracy.

You do know that Arbitron calls diarykeepers regularly during the survey to insure compliance?
>
> Good book or bad everyone knows where the diaries are placed
> can spell win or lose.

You know that diaries are place proportionall in areas of the measured metro, not haphazardly?
>
> > > It's archaic and
> > > completely biased towards radio stations that have
> > heritage
> > > and top of mind.
>
> AGREED!

Then why is DIAL POSITION the preferred method of diary entry, not name, calls or program?
>

> If they were filling it out as they go along...maybe. Come
> back to the real world do you really think people care
> enough to do that? Again it gets filled out on the last
> day, not very accurate.

It is filled in, generally, daily. This is why Arbitron makes so many follow up calls.
>
> A lady called me once and referred to every station she
> talked about as WQAM. I bet WQAM would love for her to fill
> out a diary.

There are a few idiots. But in a large sample, one idiot does not skew the results.
>
> > What does get lost in the diary is very light listening,
> > like that one time visit to the news station beforre the
> > weekend getaway to check the weather... the PPM captures
> > this.
>
> Programmers wake up. That big sucking noise you hear are
> people turning off the radio and listening to their ipods,
> internet and CD's. You need to give them something they
> can't get anywhere else and you better hurry!

What does this have to do with ratings?

P.S. the ratings are good enough for advedrtisers to use them to spend $20 billion a year... so ther emust be something there.
>

 

[mike704]

Explain Please!

Debate is good and I'm listening...

> You do know that Arbitron calls diarykeepers regularly
> during the survey to insure compliance?

Is this something new? I know someone (just one) who got a diary and nobody ever called her. Does this go on in every market from the biggest to the smallest? Seems like that would take even a large staff a long time. How is it done?

> > Good book or bad everyone knows where the diaries are
> placed
> > can spell win or lose.
>
> You know that diaries are place proportionall in areas of
> the measured metro, not haphazardly?

Nope, but I have seen where a station or stations are on top in one book, down the next and right back up again. Does listening really change that much or did the books just happen to fall in the wrong areas?
>
> Then why is DIAL POSITION the preferred method of diary
> entry, not name, calls or program?

Well now the slogans have the dial positon like K-104.7, Y-100.7 etc. It might be preferred but does than mean if the diary keeper uses call letters then it's not counted?

> It is filled in, generally, daily. This is why Arbitron
> makes so many follow up calls.

I don't see how you can be so sure of that. Why would people stand for someone calling them to ask if they have filled out their diary?

> > A lady called me once and referred to every station she
> > talked about as WQAM. I bet WQAM would love for her to
> fill
> > out a diary.
>
> There are a few idiots. But in a large sample, one idiot
> does not skew the results.

Doesn't it depend on how many people that one idiot represents? Would you agree that Radio to the "average" listener (passive if you like) it's not as important as it is to maybe you and I?

> > > What does get lost in the diary is very light listening,
>
> > > like that one time visit to the news station beforre the
>
> > > weekend getaway to check the weather... the PPM captures
>
> > > this.

I can see that. So it will likely help the information stations.

> > Programmers wake up. That big sucking noise you hear are
> > people turning off the radio and listening to their ipods,
>
> > internet and CD's. You need to give them something they
> > can't get anywhere else and you better hurry!
>
> What does this have to do with ratings?

I was just venting! Gotta learn to stay on topic here. You see I know many people who have given up on commercial radio. They have gone with Satellite, iPod, or their own CD's in the car. Not because they don't want to listen but because there isn't a station that fills their needs. There was a time when you could find any format you wanted on the radio. Now we seem to have 2 or 3 of the same format in markets that do not have that many stations.

> P.S. the ratings are good enough for advedrtisers to use
> them to spend $20 billion a year... so ther emust be
> something there.

What other choice do they have for radio ratings? Don't forget that advertiser who spent the $20 billion was sold the time by a salesperson.

Thanks!

MikeM

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Explain Please!

> Debate is good and I'm listening...
>
> > You do know that Arbitron calls diarykeepers regularly
> > during the survey to insure compliance?
>
> Is this something new? I know someone (just one) who got a
> diary and nobody ever called her. Does this go on in every
> market from the biggest to the smallest? Seems like that
> would take even a large staff a long time. How is it done?

Every market gets...

1. Placement call. This is how diarykepers are recruited. No diaries are sent blind.

2. receipt call in which theyverify the diarykeepr got diaries and is ready to start the next day.

3. Follow up calls, usually two. Making sure the diarykeepr is filling it out.

4. Return and wrapup call. Last day of book or day after to remind to finish diary and return.

All markets, for at least last 15 years.
>
> > > Good book or bad everyone knows where the diaries are
> > placed
> > > can spell win or lose.
> >
> > You know that diaries are place proportionall in areas of
> > the measured metro, not haphazardly?
>
> Nope, but I have seen where a station or stations are on top
> in one book, down the next and right back up again. Does
> listening really change that much or did the books just
> happen to fall in the wrong areas?

Anything might have happened. the first thing is that the station may actually have dropped, fixed its mistakes, and improved again. Second, the main cause of wobble is sample size. The sample can be any size, and is determined by what the local stations want to pay for, not by Arbitron. If the sample is too small, the results have to wobble, as statistics can predict the margin of error.
> >
> > Then why is DIAL POSITION the preferred method of diary
> > entry, not name, calls or program?
>
> Well now the slogans have the dial positon like K-104.7,
> Y-100.7 etc. It might be preferred but does than mean if
> the diary keeper uses call letters then it's not counted?

In any case, about 80% of diary entries are ¨97.7¨ or ¨105.5¨ and not ¨Z'97.7.¨
>
> > It is filled in, generally, daily. This is why Arbitron
> > makes so many follow up calls.
>
> I don't see how you can be so sure of that. Why would people
> stand for someone calling them to ask if they have filled
> out their diary?

They do. I have seen it being done many, many times in Columbia.
> >
> > There are a few idiots. But in a large sample, one idiot
> > does not skew the results.
>
> Doesn't it depend on how many people that one idiot
> represents?

There is pretty close proportionality in all domeos and cells. In larger markets, the diary represents around 1,100 people. In smaller ones, about 500 to 600. The spread of PPDV may range, in the large market example, from 100 to 1150, but it is very very close to true proportionality.

: Would you agree that Radio to the "average"
> listener (passive if you like) it's not as important as it
> is to maybe you and I?

I have no idea. The listeners I talk to are more passionate than ever. White people in Allentown may be different... but I don´t talk to them.
>
> > > > What does get lost in the diary is very light
> listening,
> >
> > > > like that one time visit to the news station beforre
> the
> >
> > > > weekend getaway to check the weather... the PPM
> captures
> >
> > > > this.
>
> I can see that. So it will likely help the information
> stations.

No, it helps all stations. News and ino stations are not the only beneficiaries.
>> >
> > What does this have to do with ratings?
>
> I was just venting! Gotta learn to stay on topic here. You
> see I know many people who have given up on commercial
> radio. They have gone with Satellite, iPod, or their own
> CD's in the car. Not because they don't want to listen but
> because there isn't a station that fills their needs. There
> was a time when you could find any format you wanted on the
> radio. Now we seem to have 2 or 3 of the same format in
> markets that do not have that many stations.

When I grew up, there were basically 3 formats in the Top 15 market I live din. Now there are over 20. There were 4 CHRs, now there is one. And so on. The number of formats, compared to the 60´s is triple or more.
>
> > P.S. the ratings are good enough for advedrtisers to use
> > them to spend $20 billion a year... so ther emust be
> > something there.
>
> What other choice do they have for radio ratings? Don't
> forget that advertiser who spent the $20 billion was sold
> the time by a salesperson.

Actually, most agency (where ratings are the determining factor) buys are dictates, not pitched sales. The only reason a seller calls on most agencies is to negotiate price, or cost per point, or value added, for the demo the advertiser has specified.

Arbitron got where it is by winning over the advertisers, not radio. Pulse, Hooper, Burke, Audits & Surveys, Birch, etc., marketed to radio. They are all gone.