Adios espanol, Hello active rock

[Hunter]

After reading the story comparing format performance for A25-54 in Houston and Philly between the diary and PPM methodologies in this mornings LAradio.com, an interesting thought comes to mind. According to the comparison in the two test markets, Spanish formatted stations performed worst with the change, losing 57% share, 29% Cume and 80% TSL, while rock benefited most with increases of 46% Share and 75% Cume. Rock did lose 46% TSL, which was still better than all formats except sports which lost 42% TSL.

That said, wouldn't it be interesting to see someone flipping from spanish back to an english speaking format, specifically Active Rock to prevent KROQ from running away with the book next year? Entravision, which already has rock formatted Indy 103.1 could, or should, skew it more Active (younger), or flip 97.5 or 107.1. I don't know how the latter two do in demo, but 12+ they are among the lower rated spanish outlets in LA. Although they have signal limitations, is the lure of a potential winner format worth the switch for a predominately spanish broadcaster - in the largest spanish market? Or will CC do it with a better signal and flip Star or Big first?

 

[davideduardo]

According to the comparison in the two test markets, Spanish formatted stations performed worst with the change, losing 57% share, 29% Cume and 80% TSL, .

There is no appreciable Spanish langauge Hispanic market in Philly, as most Hispanics there are assimilated, later generation Puerto Ricans.

In Houston, in 25-54 there are 22 shares in the PPM the 2nd week of August, and in the last diary book, Winter, there were 22.5 shares. The unduplicated cume is up about 35%

I believe what you read was about August Week 1, where Arbitron had sample problems, which are being fixed. At present, the shares are the same and the cume is up. Every format loses TSL, as the PPM reports lots of secondary cumers or what we used to call Phantom Cume.

[/quote]That said, wouldn't it be interesting to see someone flipping from spanish back to an english speaking format, specifically Active Rock to prevent KROQ from running away with the book next year? Entravision, which already has rock formatted Indy 103.1 could, or should, skew it more Active (younger), or flip 97.5 or 107.1. I don't know how the latter two do in demo, but 12+ they are among the lower rated spanish outlets in LA. Although they have signal limitations, is the lure of a potential winner format worth the switch for a predominately spanish broadcaster - in the largest spanish market? Or will CC do it with a better signal and flip Star or Big first?
[/quote]

The only growth sector in radio today is Hispanic. 107.1 and 97.5 are limited signals, and would have a hard time competing in English. They get low shares because they can't be heard in all the metro.

It's more likely Clear will add another Spanish station, in fact.

 

[Hunter]

The only growth sector in radio today is Hispanic. 107.1 and 97.5 are limited signals, and would have a hard time competing in English. They get low shares because they can't be heard in all the metro.

I do agree with you that it is much more likely cc. to flip an AC to rock, but given the new world of measuring audience, it will be interesting to see how different companies play the chess game....especially a company that already has a limited signal rock station and could use some help with a flank format to sell in combo. Granted, Hispanic is the only growth segment as far as population is concerned, but in the switch to the PPM world, rock is the big growth format. Many companies look for what will payout in the next few years, not necessarily long term. As far as limited signals go, for a rock format, 107.1 is not horrible and they had a pretty good following as Modern Rock Y107.

Also, maybe CC may not want to flip an AC to Rock. AC as a format showed increases of 15% in share and 97% in Cume. Maybe it's more likely they would flip Hot, due to Urban erosion under the new system.

If LA goes the way as Houston and Philly, there will now be format holes. I suppose simplisticly, my post was designed to ask the question of whether or not, at least for now, the market has reached oversaturation of hispanic stations?

 

[davideduardo]

I do agree with you that it is much more likely cc. to flip an AC to rock, but given the new world of measuring audience, it will be interesting to see how different companies play the chess game....especially a company that already has a limited signal rock station and could use some help with a flank format to sell in combo. Granted, Hispanic is the only growth segment as far as population is concerned,

No, it is the only segment in rado with revenue growth. Univision radio was up 12% in the second quarter, when the radio industry was down... and other ocmpanies in the sector are also up.

but in the switch to the PPM world, rock is the big growth format.

That is only what appears on face value. What the PPM shows is that men listen about 25% more hours than women in PPM (meaning women tended to round up more in the diary) so any format that has male appeal benefits, and that includes country, and regional Mexican, too.

Many companies look for what will payout in the next few years, not necessarily long term. As far as limited signals go, for a rock format, 107.1 is not horrible and they had a pretty good following as Modern Rock Y107.

It lost money all the time, which is why it switched to Spanish; the signal is acceptable for Spanish (70 dbu over about 65% of the HDHAs, but it is a bad signal for non-ethnic audience coverage; 97.5 is worse.

Also, maybe CC may not want to flip an AC to Rock. AC as a format showed increases of 15% in share and 97% in Cume. Maybe it's more likely they would flip Hot, due to Urban erosion under the new system.

There is no urban erosion, either. Look at the Box and KMJQ in Houston. I still think you are referring to the problems of the last few weeks in Houston due to inadequate in-tabs, not the overall results. In 25-54, there are two Spanish stations in the top 4 in Houston in the last report.

If LA goes the way as Houston and Philly, there will now be format holes.

There may be an increase in younger rock audience potential, but remember that LA is 42% Hispanic, 9% Black, 12% Asian and about 10% immigrants from places like Persia and Russia that have a very low usage of rock formats vs. non-Hispanic white; the potential here is vastly more limited.

I suppose simplisticly, my post was designed to ask the question of whether or not, at least for now, the market has reached oversaturation of hispanic stations?

No, I think there will be more, with one possibly coming (Pop) from Clear to compete with signal challenged KSSE.

 

[Hunter]

No, it is the only segment in rado with revenue growth. Univision radio was up 12% in the second quarter, when the radio industry was down... and other ocmpanies in the sector are also up.

Here we go with semantics again, Dave. Interesting that you are commenting here on only a portion of my quote regarding what may appear to be growth in the rock format due to methodology change. My quote was regarding ratings growth, which in turn would naturally suggest revenue growth. My point is, men are a highly regarded demo by marketers and if the new methodology dictates that a format is all of a sudden delivering more of them, then it only makes logical sense that other operators will want go after them.

Of the 1.06 billion dollars spent on LA radio last year, what is the proportion of money spent on english stations to spanish stations? You do know that english formatted stations get more than their proportionate share of the dollars vs. listners than their spanish speaking formatted counterparts. It is slowly changing, but until it's a level playing field, companies will naturally take advantage of any competitive opportunity to generate revenue.

That is only what appears on face value. What the PPM shows is that men listen about 25% more hours than women in PPM (meaning women tended to round up more in the diary)

No, it's a bigger case of men not being as diligent as women are in filling out the diary. Although women do tend to round more than men.

It lost money all the time, which is why it switched to Spanish; the signal is acceptable for Spanish (70 dbu over about 65% of the HDHAs, but it is a bad signal for non-ethnic audience coverage; 97.5 is worse.

They got squeezed out by KROQ focusing on their core and Star leaning softer alternative. Big City was not a great operator and did lose money. I agree the signal isn't great, but it is listenable on the westside and many parts of the valley...not to mention south OC. The Oxnard area signal won't do much to help LA.

There is no urban erosion, either. Look at the Box and KMJQ in Houston. I still think you are referring to the problems of the last few weeks in Houston due to inadequate in-tabs, not the overall results. In 25-54, there are two Spanish stations in the top 4 in Houston in the last report.

Are you trying to make a point on Urban or Spanish? I'm not sure...and I'm not refering to the strange intabs earlier this month. I do know that in general, Urban stations lose significant audience under the PPM system.

There may be an increase in younger rock audience potential, but remember that LA is 42% Hispanic, 9% Black, 12% Asian and about 10% immigrants from places like Persia and Russia that have a very low usage of rock formats vs. non-Hispanic white; the potential here is vastly more limited.

Advertising dollars are what rule, not population percentages.

No, I think there will be more, with one possibly coming (Pop) from Clear to compete with signal challenged KSSE.

That is the rumor and probably a good choice for CC...maybe all the reason more for Entravision to pair something with Indy.

 

[davideduardo]

Here we go with semantics again, Dave. Interesting that you are commenting here on only a portion of my quote regarding what may appear to be growth in the rock format due to methodology change.

I just do not see a guarantee that in LA there will be such a significant change as we see in less ethnic and immigrant based markets. The major pool for alternative and rock is non-Hispanic white and that is only about 25% of the LA market. It's a shallow pool, and those formats severely underindex in Hispanics and other ethnic and immigrant groups.

My quote was regarding ratings growth, which in turn would naturally suggest revenue growth.

I interpreted the comment in context to be population based. Since the non-Hispanic white population is declining, I don't see the opportunity as being broad based. Can Clear take a station modern / alternative and both frag KROQ and take advantage of some share growth? Sure. But the move would be as much based on the fact that women show less listening in PPM than in the diary. In Houston, in the diary, male and women AQH ratings are nearly the same, but in PPM the skew is male, with men about 25% higher compared to females. The difference is that using Philly, the male occasions are higher. On 18+, it’s 24 occasions vs. 19 for women, but with equal TSL per occasion.

What this means is that Clear's female based wall of women concept will unerperform, so getting a male oriented station might be a good move.

My point is, men are a highly regarded demo by marketers and if the new methodology dictates that a format is all of a sudden delivering more of them, then it only makes logical sense that other operators will want go after them.

This is true, but affects all ethnicities equally. Remember, a third of 18-34 listening in LA is to Spanish language stations. Again, smaller pool.

Of the 1.06 billion dollars spent on LA radio last year, what is the proportion of money spent on english stations to spanish stations?

With 21% of revenues and about 25% of shares, the power ratio is near 0.8. This year, it will be close to a one to one ratio, as the market is off but Spanish stations are up, some considerably. Probably $250 million out of maybe $980 million market revenue.

You do know that english formatted stations get more than their proportionate share of the dollars vs. listners than their spanish speaking formatted counterparts.

It's rapidly changing as more and more advertisers include Spanish langauge campaigns in their strategy. In markets like Miami, San Antonio, Houston there are Spanish stations with power ratios considerably above 1:1.

It is slowly changing, but until it's a level playing field, companies will naturally take advantage of any competitive opportunity to generate revenue.

More than anything, they will focus on where revenue growth in thenext few years is coming from. And it is not coming from non-Hispanic white audiences in LA... even the English stations are focusing on Hispanic listeners, with KIIS now at 48% Hispanic listeners and KPWR at 67%. KLOS underindexes at 28% and KROQ does the same at 34%...

No, it's a bigger case of men not being as diligent as women are in filling out the diary. Although women do tend to round more than men.

Having done diary reviews for nearly 4 decades, I can say that women tend to indicate hours and half hours, and men are vastly more precise. Younger men may not be as diligent in filling a diary, but... whatever the reason... the PPM shows more incidents for men than for women, and with the PPM measuring indicedents to the minute, what counts is incidents.

Are you trying to make a point on Urban or Spanish? I'm not sure...and I'm not refering to the strange intabs earlier this month. I do know that in general, Urban stations lose significant audience under the PPM system.

Both markets lost about 40% of the listening levels. Low tides sink all ships. Both Black and Hispanic stations that benefitted from diary rounding as well as other stations that had abnormally high TSL lost share. It's about TSL more than ethnicity. The real issue is that AQH persons for stations, even if they had the same share, declined about 40%.

Advertising dollars are what rule, not population percentages.

Not enough people, not enough share potential.

 

[in3media_be1]

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