Interesting. The only constant factors in the AAR schedule are Franken and Randi (although Randi is often heard on delay). Currently, outside programs are winning the battle for clearances in three of six dayparts (Steph in late morning, Schultz in PM drive and Lionel in late night). Big Ed's performance in signing stations may have as much to do with deal-making as audience response to either show. I think Randi might out-perform Ed in some markets and give him a good run for his money in others (while Ed would continue to be the bigger draw in others). Ironically, Randi delayed wins the battle for clearances in early evening (Peter B. Collins has yet to gain traction).
This leaves morning drive where so far inertia rules. Maron-Reilly, Reilly/Maddow or Bill Press have not taken off. Local shows in morning drive are increasing slowly, but progressive talk (AAR or any other program producer) have yet to offer a competitive entry in morning drive. Progressive talk is weakest in the most important - and most profitable - daypart. Here, the winner is probably Morning Edition. (It appears Ed and Randi are able to do better against ATC than any progressive talker has against Morning Edition. Maybe part of that has to do with what listeners are in a mood for after work.)
But, yes, a good portion of AAR affiliates - reaching a substantial portion of the potential audience - are taking programming from other sources for half the day, and it looks like this could increase. Whatever AAR puts on in late morning and early evening may only reach the turnkey stations (plus XM and the audio stream). The Young Turks face an uphill battle in morning drive. Stronger affiliates in larger markets will look increasingly at adding local shows. Unless the Turks prove a very good draw, they could end up as filler for the turnkey stations, as well.
Which brings us back to the pay to play issue. Will AAR pay stations specifically to clear their weaker entries (especially if Jones is offering incentives)? Will we see a price war for clearances? And will we see additional efforts by AAR or Jones to clear programs on other than progressive talk stations?
One other thought: With Lionel picking up ground on progressive talk stations, and maybe doing well in some new markets, might Buckley start thinking about more progressive talk programming on their "network" - maybe even - dare I say it? - progressive talk on WOR? WOR needs a fix of some kind? It seems to be having trouble finding its way with a hodge-podge mix of advice, lifestyle and 2nd string conservative talk. The schedule is in constant flux. The audience is dying or moving to Florida. Progressive talk, including local shows with a little New York edge, might do well for WOR (and vice versa). And WOR would give progressive talk a good daytime signal in a good portion of the Northeast corridor.
