Another Overhyped Philly "Winter Storm" Fizzles Out

[BRNout]

Yes, the latest "Winter Storm" supposedly featuring snow, sleet and rain fizzles out this evening. At my place, 28 miles WNW of Center City, we got 10 minutes of sleet which quickly changed to plain ol' rain. Again. And, even that was finished here by 7:30 pm. Yet, I tune in the 10 pm newscasts on Fox 29 and PHL17 (NBC 10) and see it headlined with "Live Team Coverage" of "continuing snow, sleet and rain." Huh? Where? Hartford? Scranton? How many viewers do they have in those places? Ummmm, zero. In Philly itself, it was rain all the way so headlining winter weather seems pretty silly.

Only in LA does a rainstorm get called a "winter storm" and that's because it's dry the rest of the year. And, it's even more relevant there because it snows in the nearby mountains - which most viewers can see on a clear day.

Yet again, there was the perfunctory overemphasis on Allentown/Bethlehem - and even there the sharp eye could see green grass covered with a little sleet and mush. Yes, it's been above freezing there too. The nearest accumulating snow is well out of the market.

And, no, Mount Pocono and Pottsville are not "northern and western suburbs" either. I'd dare to venture that very few people are commuting 80-100 miles each way from those places. Northern and western suburbs are actually places like Doylestown, Lansdale, Collegeville, Phoenixville, Wayne, Exton and Downingtown. And, none of those places got snow tonight as was predicted. Not even close.

The weather forecasters in this market have to be the LEAST accurate of any top 20 market. The overhyping of little rain storms by the various news departments in this particular market is an absurd joke. It's happened at least a half-dozen times so far this season and happened a lot last year too. I guess there was an inch of snow about a month ago and they missed that one.

The one time we actually got real winter weather last February, we were supposed to get sleet changing to rain (Trace - 1") and we actually ended up with 6" of sleet (which was freakish). It took 3, 6, 10 and 29 a whole day to figure out that it even happened. Whenever they predict snow, we end up with rain. And, we live well west of the city. I cannot imagine how irrelevant these reports are for viewers in South Jersey and Delaware. They must feel very disenfranchised when every winter rainstorm results in 5 minutes of live coverage from the Lehigh Valley - a 90 minute drive away. If they even stick around to feel disenfranchised.

I'd love to hear impressions from those of you who are actually from here because I have never seen anything like this. Let's put it this way: these Philly clowns make Boston's meteorologists look like precision German engineers by comparison! And that's truly saying something!

Just had to vent because tonight's newscasts have me in disbelief.....

 

[kms575]

Overhyped here in Connecticut too. Just rain in New Haven, some slush in Hartford I think.

WFSB, Channel 3 here in Hartford has to take the cake. They had a lead-in story on the 11:00 news back in October about FROST! Yes, it was a warm autumn, but they had "live coverage from the mobile newsroom" because frost was forecast. Some poor woman was stanging outside with a microphone talking about frost at the end of october. If it were July, I could possibly understand.

Talk about over-hyped.

 

[qtpieislit]

There’s always the weather cube with a deluxe weather crystal from radio shack.

 

[BRNout]

There’s always the weather cube with a deluxe weather crystal from radio shack.

I have weather radios, but that's not the point here. I know how to access the technical data from the NWS on the 'net too.

But, I also like to check out the local news. And, they blow a lot of forecasts here. Not sure if focusing on a little slush that fell in the far corners of the market is some attempt to justify the hype - which sure is unnecessary. Spending the first 5 minutes of a 30 minute newscast on it only serves to make them look silly to those of us who know better.

Overhyped here in Connecticut too. Just rain in New Haven, some slush in Hartford I think.

WFSB, Channel 3 here in Hartford has to take the cake. They had a lead-in story on the 11:00 news back in October about FROST! Yes, it was a warm autumn, but they had "live coverage from the mobile newsroom" because frost was forecast. Some poor woman was stanging outside with a microphone talking about frost at the end of october. If it were July, I could possibly understand.

Talk about over-hyped.

I actually talked with relatives in the Bristol-Terryville-Burlington area last night who said that it was snowing up there last night and that 4" or so were expected. At least there was SOME frozen precip! You're right that overhyping of minor weather events is not limited to Philadelphia (by any means) but it seems to be taken to a higher level here. Yes, it may seem boring to viewers in New Haven or Groton (who are seeing rain) to hear of a snowstorm - but at least the inland areas around Hartford represent a majority of the viewership.

One thing I will say is that I was in the Hartford/Springfield area on the 13th when the first decent storm hit and WFSB and NBC 30 were within an hour in predicting the onset of heavy snow. They pegged the start of the snow at 11 am and it hit Hartford at 10:30 (as I was driving).

That level of precision is not seen down here.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

That's why I don't watch TV news other than Channel 12's. They don't hype the weather in their Delaware Tonight newscast, but mostly, I get my weather forecast info from 1150 WDEL, 1450 WILM newsradio, KYW newsradio 1060, or WHYY-FM 90.9. For some reason, radio news coverage doesn't seem to have that problem of hyping the news or the weather as they are doing a newscast vs commercial television doing a news show.

 

[philadelphiawx]

Yes, the latest "Winter Storm" supposedly featuring snow, sleet and rain fizzles out this evening. At my place, 28 miles WNW of Center City, we got 10 minutes of sleet which quickly changed to plain ol' rain. Again. And, even that was finished here by 7:30 pm. Yet, I tune in the 10 pm newscasts on Fox 29 and PHL17 (NBC 10) and see it headlined with "Live Team Coverage" of "continuing snow, sleet and rain." Huh? Where? Hartford? Scranton? How many viewers do they have in those places? Ummmm, zero. In Philly itself, it was rain all the way so headlining winter weather seems pretty silly.

Only in LA does a rainstorm get called a "winter storm" and that's because it's dry the rest of the year. And, it's even more relevant there because it snows in the nearby mountains - which most viewers can see on a clear day.

Yet again, there was the perfunctory overemphasis on Allentown/Bethlehem - and even there the sharp eye could see green grass covered with a little sleet and mush. Yes, it's been above freezing there too. The nearest accumulating snow is well out of the market.

And, no, Mount Pocono and Pottsville are not "northern and western suburbs" either. I'd dare to venture that very few people are commuting 80-100 miles each way from those places. Northern and western suburbs are actually places like Doylestown, Lansdale, Collegeville, Phoenixville, Wayne, Exton and Downingtown. And, none of those places got snow tonight as was predicted. Not even close.

The weather forecasters in this market have to be the LEAST accurate of any top 20 market. The overhyping of little rain storms by the various news departments in this particular market is an absurd joke. It's happened at least a half-dozen times so far this season and happened a lot last year too. I guess there was an inch of snow about a month ago and they missed that one.

The one time we actually got real winter weather last February, we were supposed to get sleet changing to rain (Trace - 1") and we actually ended up with 6" of sleet (which was freakish). It took 3, 6, 10 and 29 a whole day to figure out that it even happened. Whenever they predict snow, we end up with rain. And, we live well west of the city. I cannot imagine how irrelevant these reports are for viewers in South Jersey and Delaware. They must feel very disenfranchised when every winter rainstorm results in 5 minutes of live coverage from the Lehigh Valley - a 90 minute drive away. If they even stick around to feel disenfranchised.

I'd love to hear impressions from those of you who are actually from here because I have never seen anything like this. Let's put it this way: these Philly clowns make Boston's meteorologists look like precision German engineers by comparison! And that's truly saying something!

Just had to vent because tonight's newscasts have me in disbelief.....

This sounds eerily familiar to what we woke up to this morning.

 

[BRNout]

Yes indeed, it was the exact same thing as last time.

They were completely and fundamentally wrong about this forecast. There wasn't enough cold air to support snow in most of the area and we actually had rain that mixed with snow (around 7-9 pm) which then went back to rain. Completely contrary to the forecasts. In fact, in watching the 10 and 11 pm newscasts, a change from rain to snow and 1"-2" of wet snow were still predicted even as what little rain/snow mix had changed back (permanently) to rain. Hello - warm air advection. Does anyone on TV notice? No.

And, by then, it was clear that most of the heavy precip had already moved north and that this was yet another bust.

On a scientific level, they completely blew the forecast. They weren't even close to being right for the wrong reasons - they were wrong for the wrong reasons. Again.

But yet, my colleagues and friends up in New England were treated to a very accurate forecast about the same storm. Interesting how that works. Are these weathercasters here actual mets or are they just smiling faces? They all seem to be the latter.

 

[kms575]

Yes indeed, it was the exact same thing as last time.

They were completely and fundamentally wrong about this forecast. There wasn't enough cold air to support snow in most of the area and we actually had rain that mixed with snow (around 7-9 pm) which then went back to rain. Completely contrary to the forecasts. In fact, in watching the 10 and 11 pm newscasts, a change from rain to snow and 1"-2" of wet snow were still predicted even as what little rain/snow mix had changed back (permanently) to rain. Hello - warm air advection. Does anyone on TV notice? No.

And, by then, it was clear that most of the heavy precip had already moved north and that this was yet another bust.

On a scientific level, they completely blew the forecast. They weren't even close to being right for the wrong reasons - they were wrong for the wrong reasons. Again.

But yet, my colleagues and friends up in New England were treated to a very accurate forecast about the same storm. Interesting how that works. Are these weathercasters here actual mets or are they just smiling faces? They all seem to be the latter.

Oh, not so....
Here in New Haven, the forecats started at 6-12" on Saturday, then dwindled down to 4-8" by Sunday night. What did we wake up with? Well, to call it a dusting of slush is an overstatement. Ironically, there were snowplows everywhere!
Though, grantedNew Haven's climate is much more like Philadelphia than New England.

 

[BRNout]

I was thinking of friends/relatives in southern NH and along the 495 corridor in Mass. A total of 10"-15" was predicted as early as Saturday night and that ended up being quite accurate for that area. Many of my colleagues up there worked from home today. Central CT apparently got 4"-6" of snow, which was less than they had expected too - but more than you did in New Haven.

Now our local yokels are trying to hype another "maybe snow" event for Philly on Thursday night! BS - probably rain is more like it. Same conditions as for this storm, but slightly warmer. A quick perusal of the internet shows Boston and Albany talking about mixed precipitation for this next one, so it shouldn't even be debatable here. However, the continued stupidity is great fodder to keep this thread going until April!

I must say that I feel like I've been placed in weather's answer to the Penalty Box this year. Feels like I'm sitting out the winter. Of course I wouldn't be whining if it was sunny and 70 degrees - but a consistent (and wet) 34 degrees F is really depressing!

 

[JayR]

Of course I wouldn't be whining if it was sunny and 70 degrees - but a consistent (and wet) 34 degrees F is really depressing!

Watch the Fort Myers Forecast
Partly Cloudy
64°F
Feels Like
64°F
Updated Jan 14 06:45 p.m. ET

;D ;D ;D

 

[philadelphiawx]

Yes indeed, it was the exact same thing as last time.

They were completely and fundamentally wrong about this forecast. There wasn't enough cold air to support snow in most of the area and we actually had rain that mixed with snow (around 7-9 pm) which then went back to rain. Completely contrary to the forecasts. In fact, in watching the 10 and 11 pm newscasts, a change from rain to snow and 1"-2" of wet snow were still predicted even as what little rain/snow mix had changed back (permanently) to rain. Hello - warm air advection. Does anyone on TV notice? No.

And, by then, it was clear that most of the heavy precip had already moved north and that this was yet another bust.

On a scientific level, they completely blew the forecast. They weren't even close to being right for the wrong reasons - they were wrong for the wrong reasons. Again.

But yet, my colleagues and friends up in New England were treated to a very accurate forecast about the same storm. Interesting how that works. Are these weathercasters here actual mets or are they just smiling faces? They all seem to be the latter.

I run phillyweather.net and I grade their forecasts in the winter whenever it snows (or it might snow)...it's storms like these that I wish I could penalize further but because of how my grading system the smaller storms like the last one don't get quite the same penalty even though they are remembered fondly. This is probably the third biggest bust storm I can remember in the last decade, with 3/5/01 (Bolaris storm) and 2/5/01 (3" of snow with a foot in the burbs even though the forecast was rain) being two bigger whiffs in the last few years.

To their defense, there was a fair bit of evidence in the computer modeling that the storm was going to intensify before it reached us. The stronger storm would have manufactured more cold air (pulling cold air down from up in the atmosphere because of heavier precip), which would lead to rain turning to snow. Computer modeling on Saturday night had 3 to 6 plus inches of snow in the city itself, with up to 8 or more inches in Bucks County for this storm. The Christmas Storm in 2002 would have been a great comparison -- rain changing to snow quickly with places northeast of Philadelphia getting rocked with heavy snow for a few hours had the low done what the computer modeling said it would. The problem -- the low didn't strengthen because energy was held back in the Great Lakes...that's why we had low clouds, drizzle, and flurries around here yesterday evening. The weaker storm meant that warm air hung around and that we had a big ol bust of a storm.

In my opinion, too many meteorologists and weather forecasters hug computer modeling too heavily and don't rely on gut instinct and what past storms have done. This isn't the first storm to bust in snow predictions for the area recently (it happened two weeks ago when the Lehigh Valley was supposed to get 2-5" of snow but got rain, again because the storm didn't strengthen like computer guidance said it would).

I think the problem is that meteorologists on air do not put a confidence level forecast in addition to the 'how much' which I think leads to this thought that these guys are dead certain it will happen. I think it might be a wise idea to put a low, medium, high confidence behind the forecast and state why you think it's that way....even if it's something that you do online in a blog or a video podcast, so people who want to know why you think that way (and there's a decent sized population who care about such a thing) can find out about it.

 

[Irishfl]

The poster above me is correct. All the computer models had this thing giving us snow, and starting Saturday each run was showing us getting more and more. All the computers seemed to be in agreement. So in the end at lets say noon on Sunday, all computers had us getting snow, and this was to happen within hours. Normally when this is the case, the computers end up being right. So I don't fully blame them for going with this info, like some do when the computers aren't in agreement (they ussally give 2 or more tracks) and/or its a few days out.

Still, they ignored history, and la nina. History shows this type of stuff happens during la nina years, and really we just don't get much snow.

As for the New England forecast, they used the same info. Its not that they're better forecasters their, rather the storm was strengthened and more together by the time it reached them, thus their forecast never fell apart like it did for us.

 

[knight]

"I think the problem is that meteorologists on air do not put a confidence level forecast..."
Well said. In fact when I read the NWS discussion pages they will actually put in their own level of confidence. Maybe not in the exact verbiage you suggest, but by reading their text and summations, you generally get an idea of how confident they are with the forecast and potential changes. If unfamiliar with the contractions used by the NWS sites like www.wunderground.com do the translations for you.
On the other hand, the TV pretty faces take and read the forecast darn near verbatim at times. In fact, I have read NWS postings (not sure if it was here or when I lived in DC) when a forecaster lambasted a TV pretty face for over hyping a storm and taking the forecast out of context.

 

[BRNout]

Let's put it this way: the locals here in Philly didn't do a good enough job of using experience and skills to predict these last storms. Not just by using similar patterns of years past, but this years as well. So far this season, the pattern has been pretty similar for all storms. So, you need to look upon the verbatim forecasts very critically.

And, when conditions are clearly changing, you need to recognize this and change your prognostications accordingly. For example, we had rain mix with snow between 7 and 9 pm before going back to rain (for good) by 9. Yet, at 10 pm, Bolaris was still banging the drum about 1"-2" of snow once a changeover occurred. By the time he gave his forecast, it was clear that the expected cold air advection was not occurring and that this was not going to happen for most of the viewing area. The schmoes at 11 pm on the same night followed him right off the cliff. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Perhaps the NWSFO in Mount Holly was a little slow on it....but that's what the station's meteorologists and producer(s) are supposed to be there for.

As I get to travel back and forth between here and the Boston area, I get to do a little handicapping - and did last year too. They're often wrong up there too, but not nearly as often as here. This winter, they've been pretty good up in Boston - even hitting the onset of snow to the hour. Here, they've missed almost every storm in one way or another. Usually precip type, but often timing too. I was up in MA about a month ago and the Philly guys were forecasting the same nor'easter to hit later on the same day than forecasters in Boston and Hartford were [it was progged for Sat nite in NE and Sunday here]. Well, needless to say - they were wrong and it hit late Sat afternoon.

Another example: on Thursday we have another event coming up. Already, Philly media are teasing the possibility of snow in newscasts and on Philly.com. Technically, the forecasts are calling for a mix of rain and snow. Yet, for Boston, Manchester and Hartford, the local forecast is for a wintry mix (i.e. rain/sleet/snow) on Thursday night/Friday morning with a high in the mid-30s. My money is on the latter three being correct and our forecast (again) overdoing the snow aspect.

Looking at the models and prevailing weather pattern, it will rain in Philly and most suburbs. The only snow mixing in may be on the very edges of the market (north and northwest). Why hype snow? It's not coming this time either. Cold rain (period). There just isn't enough cold air in all layers to support snow here. Nor is there enough precip coming to drag the cold air down from above (and change it to snow). I don't know that the Mount Holly NWSFO is any less astute than Taunton - yet the public dissemination of the forecasts has been far less accurate for most of us. Last winter wasn't much better, but I had just moved here and kept quiet about it.

 

[imhomerjay]

I don't know about every station, but I watched one 11 p.m. forecast on Sunday night that made it quite clear there was no snow coming to the immediate area. Moreover, somehow I gleaned from the TV all week (having not had time to check online) that the storm was iffy at best and neeed to have certain things happen to produce snow.

As for this week, I'm seeing mostly a rain forecast at this point, so I'm not really sensing hype at this stage, unless my B.S. detector is doing a remarkably good job of filtering.

 

[Irishfl]

Brn, you dare criticize the great John Bolaris? Don' you know they hacve the better forecast now? Only kidding. I don't disagree with you one bit. Bolaris hasn't changed a bit. Wait, sorry i'm wrong. He now includes (and makes sure to point out) the words possible, potential, ect. However he still hypes these things up, and sell them as a big storm. Even tonight, he is beating the drum for this weeks possible snow storm, despite this one clearly showing up in all models as rain. Then again, maybe he is expecting them to be wrong again, and he will look smart when we get snow, and he was the only one to forecast it.

However, I watched ch6 Sunday night at 11, and Adam Joseph was clear this storm was gonna be a bust. Don't know about 3 or 10.