The Voice of Reason said:
Steven21 said:
Did any of these companies ever consider having less profit for the sake of maintaining a quality product?
Crazy, I know. Quality comes from pride in one's work, not greed.
You have just outlined the formula that has virtually destroyed radio and television as an entertainment and news entity.
Major corporations that own broadcasting operations could care less about personnel. It's all profit. Yet they fail to understand that getting rid of veteran talent and replacing them with substandard employees who are willing to work for less money only contributes to the loss of viewers and listeners.
What really destroyed radio and TV are the accelerated advances in technologies combined with the zeal to get bigger and buy more radio and TV stations at inflated prices at unsustainable multiples. It turned out to be the perfect storm of bad timing, bad decision-making and bad economics. As a result, the people on camera and behind the microphone, like those mentioned in this thread, along with technicians and producers, suffered most. Gannett last week cut 2 thousand employees nationally, primarily in print media. Unfortunately, more cuts are likely to come in their electronic media division.
There will be a shake-out however, perhaps later this year or next, when companies go bankrupt or fire-sale their properties to highest bidders and the worm begins to turn as the situation improves. Slowly.
The problem with this prediction is there are very few banks and investment companies that are lining up to lend money to prospective buyers
at this time. This might change, but banks know full well that media, particularly radio and television, are a mess and a shakey proposition these days. I recently talked to an investiment-type who's on the sidelines (on the
prowl, perhaps), but there's no rush to jump in unless the price is
very right and favorable financing is available. The cash flow multiples will have to come down to the 5-6 (if not 4) times cash flow range for investors to become interested.
Regent bought into Buffalo at $125 million, which is approximately $31 million for each of the four FM stations in the former CBS cluster, plus pocket change for WECK, which it spun off to Culver Communications for $1.3 million.
Entercom paid far less when they took over the entire Sinclair Radio division around 2000.
Let's presume Citadel's Buffalo cluster, three FM's and two AM's, sells for $80 million. The buyer might be $45 million ahead of Regent and even with Entercom. Some speculate the prices might even be lower. Imagine the leverage that difference might present? Companies, even ones that are nearly insolvent, insist that they'll never sell at multiples of 5 or 6. Wanna bet? Half a loaf is better than none at all and lenders and shareholder blocks will dictate what CEOs will eventually do... if those CEOs still have a job.
Add inflation to the mix and there may be a run of debt-holders who prefer to "get out now," taking 18 cents on a dollar. Recall the run on Citadel stock the week before it was delisted from the NYSE. Share holder that bought in at $8 were taking 23 cents or less per share. On the other side of the spectrum, buyers, sensing an opportunity might want to "get in now" before the interest rates go up and the value of the dollar drops. It's all speculative. I won't pretend to have the answers. The market runs on emotion as much as it does on hard, factual evidence. The adage goes, "Bears get killed, bulls get killed but pigs get lead to slaughter."
But please keep in mind that no matter what company buys radio properties from the many
zombie companies, there always will be debt service to pay; so don't expect the glory days of radio to return. The days of Live 24-7 are over. Sadly. Of course, I'd like to be proven wrong in that prediction.
-9-