Any Guess On How WCBS v2 Will Rate By Christmas?

[leethalweapon]

Now that everyone is happy and the world is at peace (or will be after 1:01pm Thursday), Does anyone want to dare make a forcast as to where WCBS v2 will sit in the ratings, come christmas. How do you think it will do in key Demo's?

 

[oaktree]

I would imagine as in every other way-hyped, emotionally connected, much publicized and anticipated flip:

1. Binge listening/sampling for the first six weeks in all demos except 18-24s. (Til Labor Day)
2. More promotion (constant, in fact) in Sept. leading to the start of the Fall book (accent 25-54, 35-49, Males)
3. Fall book begins - concentration on 35-49 Males/Females dance, upbeat, "good time" feel
4. Promotion leading to holidays in November, female oriented, concentration 25-49
5. Heavy holiday promotion, females, 25-49+ more "nostalgic" Autumn/Winter "feel". More "gold" based.
6. More emphasis on "Classic" NY hits for 35-49 demos at Christmas

Result: Youth will turn off the station in 2 weeks after the hype. The boards will come alive with how "bad" the station sounds. Some in the 35-49 demos will note that they "miss" the "legendary" jocks, but find the station listenable and heavy cumes with PPM. The 25-34s will find the station "fresher" but not "contemporary" ... but an ok listen, but with heavier cumes out of sampling and promotions.

The 35-49 cells will take the day because of cumes, incidental listening and rebounding TSL's with a broader playlist. Strong females and stronger programmed weekends will put the station in the Top 15 overall in six months. Don't be fooled by 12+ figures, they have NO impact. Rolling average trends may show a 4 share in 25-49 demos by November, then plateau and even drop to a 3+ share by Christmas.

Top 10 next spring 25-54. Top 15 25-49. A 9-11 month turnaround from present levels, with a 3.5 share across the board by next April, a 3.2 by June.

Just a hunch. My psychic was exhausted and her crystal ball exploded. Said that a lot depends on the "energy" of the station after the first sampling period and as school starts. Without the energy going into the fall, it'll be a very slow climb after the newness wears off. Recapturing, however, the energy will bring good results. Billings will rapidly climb in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

#1? Probably...not. Top 5? Yes. Must be energy plus, no slacking and please don't play the Righteous Bros. three times a day, everyday like K-Earth in LA. It won't sound like K-Earth, either. More urban and carefully selected 80s material. VERY selective.

 

[chuckydoll]

Ratings prediction: Lots of hype, little results

60's music, jive-talking DJs, reverb, news on the hour, lots of specialty shows . . . CBS Radio is putting CBS-FM back on the air as if Jack never happened. Major, major mistake!

Fresh 102.7 signed on jockless with 90's-and-today music, then added DJs as needed and 80's music after 3 months. That is how you put a new station on these days.

Forget about a 3 share for CBS-FM. All that audience in '05 went elsewhere or died off after the flip to Jack. Also, New York is now largely brown and black, thus the Spanish, R&B and jazz stations are better represented.

I give CBS-FM 6-12 months with this second stint in oldies. If it does not crack a 2 share within a year I see another format at 101.1 . . . country.

 

[chuckydoll]

Update to prediction above

Forget about going top 5, much less top 10. Also, if CBS-FM doesn't crack a 3 share within a year the oldies format is history.

The time limit on editing posts may have skewed the earlier prediction.