Any PPM predictions?

[davideduardo]

I've got to ask though - is the reason for KGO's fall attributable to being on AM only; or is it their overall aging demographic, and the station's "old fogey" hosts that talk about topics that younger listeners are not interested in?

There is no case of a traditional n/t moving to FM or simulcasting on FM also that has not been successful in improving the 25-54 sales demo numbers.

It's AM that is ageing. When traditional n/t gets on FM, the younger demos pop up a lot... from WTOP to WIBC to KSL you can see that adding or moving to FM without changing anything else made the difference.

Also remember that FM talk stations in the Bay Area - including the station that supposedly catered to a younger demo (Free FM) have not been succesful.

That was a talk format for an age group, under 35, that has no need or use for a talk format. Brain dead.

 

[djmimi]

PPM measures all listening, so it would stand to reason that music stations would win by sheer default. Your PPM might pick up a radio station blasting from a car sitting next to you. Or when you are walking by someone listening to a box. Or some boutique shop that doesn't have a piped in service. Most kids like their music LOUD. Whereas, talk remains somewhat (as they say) for old fogeys who know better than to blast someone else's opinions all over the place. (ok, maybe SOME old fogeys...lol)

 

[davideduardo]

PPM measures all listening, so it would stand to reason that music stations would win by sheer default. Your PPM might pick up a radio station blasting from a car sitting next to you.

Not likely. To be part of the cume of a station, your meter has to detect you listening for a minimum of 5 minutes in a 15-minute period. Otherwise, no tabulated.

Or when you are walking by someone listening to a box.

You would have to be walking very slowly.

Or some boutique shop that doesn't have a piped in service.

If you are in the store long enough, you were hearing the station and you do get counted.

 

[LKellerIII]

djmimi said:

PPM measures all listening, so it would stand to reason that music stations would win by sheer default. Your PPM might pick up a radio station blasting from a car sitting next to you. Or when you are walking by someone listening to a box. Or some boutique shop that doesn't have a piped in service. Most kids like their music LOUD. Whereas, talk remains somewhat (as they say) for old fogeys who know better than to blast someone else's opinions all over the place. (ok, maybe SOME old fogeys...lol)

I work in an office with a young woman (35-40), who used to blast KSFO, primarily Dr. Laura and Rushbo at full volume. We work in a very politically correct (read: liberal) SF Bay Area workplace. She finally had to be told to either shut if off, or wear headphones.

Also remember that FM talk stations in the Bay Area - including the station that supposedly catered to a younger demo (Free FM) have not been succesful.
That was a talk format for an age group, under 35, that has no need or use for a talk format. Brain dead.

David, are you saying that listeners under 35 tend to be "brain dead" (how ageist of you!), of that the KIFR talk format was "brain dead?" I would certainly agree with the latter.

 

[davideduardo]

David, are you saying that listeners under 35 tend to be "brain dead" (how ageist of you!), of that the KIFR talk format was "brain dead?" I would certainly agree with the latter.

The format was brain dead. There are only so many hours a week you can fill with talk about breasts and fart jokes.

 

[atwater kent]

PPM measures all listening, so it would stand to reason that music stations would win by sheer default. Your PPM might pick up a radio station blasting from a car sitting next to you. Or when you are walking by someone listening to a box. Or some boutique shop that doesn't have a piped in service. Most kids like their music LOUD. Whereas, talk remains somewhat (as they say) for old fogeys who know better than to blast someone else's opinions all over the place. (ok, maybe SOME old fogeys...lol)

There is a minimum time of reception that qualifies as "exposure." So, the car you sit next to at the light or any source you just walk by isn't going to register. Standing in line at the checkout counter in the 7-11, while the AC stations drones on, will count as you "listening" to a station that you never would have chosen.

 

[djmimi]

I stand corrected. But you do see how if you were to go to a festival with a station broadcasting live would force some listening! I would think it wise for a station's promo team to invest in mobile broadcasting units to go live at as many festivals and outdoor gatherings as possible...

 

[davideduardo]

I stand corrected. But you do see how if you were to go to a festival with a station broadcasting live would force some listening! I would think it wise for a station's promo team to invest in mobile broadcasting units to go live at as many festivals and outdoor gatherings as possible...

The math does not support this.

There are about 2000 meters in the daily in-tab for a 12+ population of 5.7 million persons. That is one meter for e very 2,800 persons. Exposing a person to a station on one day of the 28 day survey period is not going to change anything, but would be very costly.

 

[SFStatic]

The people that used to be called "P-1's" are now 3 times as important. Most of the people attending a festival where the station was broadcasting are probably already your P-1's. Now if you could assemble a number of NON-P'1's at an event and play your station...but if they already don't like your music, you wouldn't get much of a bump- they'd leave.

 

[davideduardo]

The people that used to be called "P-1's" are now 3 times as important.

They are still called P1's. A P1 to a station is a person who listens to it more than any other. A P1 who listens to radio overall only one or two hours a week is very different than one who listenes 20 to 30 hours a week. What is important in the PPM is the amount of listening, since people change thrier P1 station several times a year per the PPM data.

Most of the people attending a festival where the station was broadcasting are probably already your P-1's. Now if you could assemble a number of NON-P'1's at an event and play your station...but if they already don't like your music, you wouldn't get much of a bump- they'd leave.

The point is no what station they are P1 to. It is that an event, lasting a few hours, represents about 1/200th of the total hours in a monthly survey. And the chances of getting a meter carrier are about one in 2,800. You will not get at best more than a couple of meter carriers and the amount of listening they can register is so minuscule that it will not affect listening levels at all. The math does not work.

 

[Jay F]

Looks as though the San Francisco radio dial is going to be in for some big changes when the PPM kicks in full force. Its time for KGO to move to FM. What a time to for Citadel to be out of money and so far down in stock price. .95 at the close today, sad really sad.

I've got to ask though - is the reason for KGO's fall attributable to being on AM only; or is it their overall aging demographic, and the station's "old fogey" hosts that talk about topics that younger listeners are not interested in? If that's the case, moving to FM would not solve anything, or maybe help just a little bit.

Also remember that FM talk stations in the Bay Area - including the station that supposedly catered to a younger demo (Free FM) have not been succesful.

Note: I am not criticizing - I like KGO the way it is. Of course, I'm an old fogey.

Another example of a successful FM talker is WPGB/Pittsburgh. They are #2 25-54 in the recently released Spring book. It just goes to show mainstream news and talk topics are not old fogey. it's just that old fogeys are the only ones who still listen to AM. Also, it goes to show that CBS underestimated the mentality of younger adults with their failed FREE FM idea. They were correct to put talk on FM, but the subject matter was way too dumb and crude to attract an audience. Only Howard Stern can pull it off.