any truth to the rumor alt 98.7 might get blown up???

[hotpatrick2004]

If numbers dont go up by early next year? Country perhaps i heard. Go country 105 doesnt exactly have stellar ratings. I doubt this will happen there are no format holes to fill. Besides alt 98.7 exist just to keep kroq at bay.

Opinions...

 

[K.M. Richards]

You answered your own question.

Besides alt 98.7 exist just to keep kroq at bay.

The entire reason for Alt 98.7's continued existence is to prevent KROQ from becoming dominant again.

As long as the numbers are stable -- and they are -- iHeart's not going to blow it up.

 

[acheron1982]

Alt 98.7 is diving a little deeper and expanding their playlist. According to the ratings, they are tied with KROQ. Don't see an iheart explosion coming.

 

[K.M. Richards]

According to the ratings, they are tied with KROQ.

More or less.

In 18-49 they are neck-and-neck, separated by a single tenth of a point. Tightening it to 18-34, the difference is still under a full point, but for part of August KYSR was a point-and-a-half ahead and was the higher of the two all but one week. In 25-54 the discrepancy is wider and KROQ is consistently lower.

But the numbers are close enough -- and as I said before, KYSR's numbers are solid -- iHeart isn't going to make changes just for the sake of making changes.

I also find it curious that this rumor doesn't seem to be coming from anywhere but the OP's keyboard.

 

[chrocket87]

Do you have daypart numbers for the two? If K&B is still a top morning show, KYSR must be clubbing them in the music-heavy dayparts.

Not that it matters much, since KROQ still outbills KYSR by a nice margin.

 

[K.M. Richards]

Morning drive only:
18-34 - KROQ ahead of KYSR by just under one point.
18-49 - KROQ ahead by just over a point and a half.
25-54 - KROQ has almost twice the ratings share.

KYSR does do better than KROQ in just about every other daypart, so K&B are carrying 106.7 to a large degree.

 

[SuperH]

Morning drive only:
18-34 - KROQ ahead of KYSR by just under one point.
18-49 - KROQ ahead by just over a point and a half.
25-54 - KROQ has almost twice the ratings share.

KYSR does do better than KROQ in just about every other daypart, so K&B are carrying 106.7 to a large degree.

I'm sure I'm going to get drawn and quartered for this comment, but I much prefer The Woody Show over Kevin & Bean.

The source of the information may well come from "Woody" (Jeff Fife) himself. Last week, Woody commented on-air that he had dined with someone high up iHeartMedia's chain for lunch, and that he told Woody that if something significant didn't happen by the end of the year, they'd have to flip the format to Country. Woody said that the comment was portrayed as sarcastic, but Woody wasn't sure if that was the case.

 

[34james]

Well if the Rumor is true,
He has 4 months to get the ratings up in the key demos, it can be done as witnessed with KTWV. Staying neck and neck with KROQ in key demos is probably what they don't want, they probably want to see numbers improve, Morning shows cost money.

 

[TheBigA]

I don't know which station will get blown up, but iHeart is on a big push to clear it's country shows in major markets. They blew up an alternative station in Boston a couple years ago to get a lowly rated country station. But the actual numbers don't matter. They're selling a national format. Cumulus is doing the exact same thing. Right now, neither have a station in LA, and the first one in, wins. Yes, it will get a 1 share, but they don't care.

 

[K.M. Richards]

Morning drive only:
18-34 - KROQ ahead of KYSR by just under one point.
18-49 - KROQ ahead by just over a point and a half.
25-54 - KROQ has almost twice the ratings share.

KYSR does do better than KROQ in just about every other daypart, so K&B are carrying 106.7 to a large degree.

I'm sure I'm going to get drawn and quartered for this comment, but I much prefer The Woody Show over Kevin & Bean.

Well, for the two shows to be so close in the ratings, you certainly aren't the only one.

Now, as for this "flip to Country" rumor.

The existing station in the format -- Saul Levine's KKGO -- has a good, full-market signal, and yet here's its standing in the key demos:
18-34 - #19, tied with KTWV in the last book. Among English-language FMs (and excluding stations like KKLA and KWVE), the only stations it beats are KDAY, KJLH, and the non-comms. Within a point of KLOS but about half of what KYSR has.
18-49 - #21 ... again, the lowest rated full-market English, non-religious FM. Within a point of KYSR but almost two points behind KLOS.
25-54 - #22, but within a point of both KLOS and KYSR.

You don't blow up stations if they are performing reasonably well, and especially not to do battle with a station that has lower ratings than you do already.

 

[TheBigA]

You don't blow up stations if they are performing reasonably well, and especially not to do battle with a station that has lower ratings than you do already.

That's what the programmers would say. But sales and corporate are another matter. They wouldn't flipping to do battle. They'd be flipping to get a market clear for their product.

If country is a sales and corporate priority, and there's no other way to do it, then that's what you do. They've got the same problem in NY.

 

[K.M. Richards]

That's what the programmers would say. But sales and corporate are another matter. They wouldn't flipping to do battle. They'd be flipping to get a market clear for their product.

If country is a sales and corporate priority, and there's no other way to do it, then that's what you do. They've got the same problem in NY.

I think it is time for David to check in with BIA data for the stations in question. A comparison of KYSR vs. KROQ, KLOS vs. KSWD, and KKGO in general might be useful to discuss whether the old "cut off one's nose to spite one's face" cliché would be applicable to the discussion. I would think that, regardless of motivation, both iHeart and Cumulus would take into account how much revenue could be abandoned by such a move.

Cumulus had an advantage in NYC by being able to acquire 94.7 from Family Radio and not have to flip an existing property.

 

[davideduardo]

A comparison of KYSR vs. KROQ, KLOS vs. KSWD, and KKGO in general might be useful to discuss whether the old "cut off one's nose to spite one's face" cliché would be applicable to the discussion. I would think that, regardless of motivation, both iHeart and Cumulus would take into account how much revenue could be abandoned by such a move.

Good point about revenue abandonment. While a format modification such as The Wave has made can be accomplished without much revenue loss if the numbers stay steady during the transition, a change from classic rock to country or alternative to country would wipe the billings and make the change the equivalent of a start-up.

KLOS and KYSR bill in the $16 million range. KKGO bills around $10 million.

Locally owned KKGO is well liked, even loved by local agencies and even many regional ones. So consider that a new country station will not take that much billing from KKGO. And KKGO has a 2.6 share (average) in 25-54; two 1.3 share stations will not each take $5 million. Two 1.3 stations will essentially be off the buy lists as being too small. Any relationship buys will go to KKGO.

KSWD vs. KLOS are a good example of the slow growth of a startup. KLOS billed 50% more than KSWD last year but that is down from billing nearly $24 million in 2011 which is the year when KSWD went classic rock and dropped AAA. KSWD went from $5 million to $10 million in the same period.

In the case of KYSR or KLOS going country, either would likely lose around $15 to $20 million in billings assuming they tied KKGO in the first year. And then they would be splitting a smaller pie with KKGO for some time.

 

[CTListener]

I don't know which station will get blown up, but iHeart is on a big push to clear it's country shows in major markets. They blew up an alternative station in Boston a couple years ago to get a lowly rated country station. But the actual numbers don't matter. They're selling a national format. Cumulus is doing the exact same thing. Right now, neither have a station in LA, and the first one in, wins. Yes, it will get a 1 share, but they don't care.

Actually, they blew up that alternative station (WFNX) first to pur a nondescript AC/gold on the frequency, then an EDM (electronic dance) format. The Bull (WBWL) is the third stab at putting something that will top a 2.0 at 101.7 since Clear Channel took it off the Boston Phoenix's hands. WFNX bumped along in the 1.5-1.7 range. Its successors did no better. Bull at least has poked its head above 2.0 occasionally. It's still getting crushed by WKLB, the established country station in Boston, but as you say, they're clearing the shows and getting better numbers for them than the format's (and ownership's) predecessors did with their programming.

 

[TheBigA]

In the case of KYSR or KLOS going country, either would likely lose around $15 to $20 million in billings assuming they tied KKGO in the first year. And then they would be splitting a smaller pie with KKGO for some time.

That's the mathematics of it, and in traditional radio metrics, that would kill any thought of a flip. But this is a different company, and they're not just thinking locally. So the question isn't about what they'll take from KKGO. The question is what an LA clear will mean for the overall country platform for NATIONAL advertising. KKGO has nothing to fear. In fact, a second station might help them build more excitement for the genre, and consequently KKGO. You never know.

One last thought: If I'm the market GM, I don't want those local losses to count against my annual bonus. If someone else is benefiting, I don't want to lose.

 

[davideduardo]

That's the mathematics of it, and in traditional radio metrics, that would kill any thought of a flip. But this is a different company, and they're not just thinking locally. So the question isn't about what they'll take from KKGO. The question is what an LA clear will mean for the overall country platform for NATIONAL advertising. KKGO has nothing to fear. In fact, a second station might help them build more excitement for the genre, and consequently KKGO. You never know.

iHeart/Premiere has little that it needs to clear (pun not intended) in LA. They don't have much of a country position in many of the top market. And strategically, the limited KYSR signal is better positioned against KROQ as iHeart needs younger adult males, which country in LA won't be generous with. And the idea of putting the really inferior KYSR signal against a high-power Mt Wilson signal is quite obviously not a good idea, particularly based on analysis of where KKGO gets its listening.

Cumulus appears to be having its management strategy questioned and it seems that the Dickey brothers along with McVay and Jeffries may have suffered an immense power loss. That may put in jeopardy the Nash brand, particularly since the numbers don't lie on the lack of success there. The brand is not generating much in the way of unwired network sales, and even that is in jeopardy as the delivery promises appear not to have been met consistently.

We are left with the loss of the KLOS revenue (another intended pun) with a switch and the adoption of a format that has no demographic base in LA in country's new 18-44 core where the market is nearly 80% ethnic and immigrants, and not a good target for country.

As to country growth, that's not happening. I just saw a report of how California has lost net population of about 6 million non-Hispanic whites in the last roughly 12 years. They were replaced by immigrants, mostly Hispanic, but also Asians, Russians, Persians and others. Evidence of the shrinking country share can be seen in many CA markets, but in this instance I will mention the neighboring market of Riverside / San Bernardino where country is down to about half of its audience size in the last decade and a half.

 

[TheBigA]

iHeart/Premiere has little that it needs to clear (pun not intended) in LA.

I'm not saying what I describe will happen. It may not, because of the reasons you give. But I'm pretty sure that someone very high up has presented this idea at some point in the past year. You can quote me: Not everything radio stations do make sense.

I'll also say the comparison with Cumulus and Nash isn't fair, because iHeart is simply doing a better job.