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Anyone Buying Radio Stock Today?
- Thread starter wavo
- Start date
Everything is down. Apple is down. Google is down. Long term, I'd say the prognosis is better for them.
Those prices are not terribly different from where those stocks were before all of this started.
Entercom, for one, was down today alone almost 25%!!! One month ago the stock was in the mid $4s.
CBS was in the $50s before the Viacom merger. Viacom was in the $30s. Combined close was $13 and some change. (VIAC does NOT own radio.)
Cumulus...below $5!
We all know prices will rebound when the irrational flu drama is replaced by something else bright and shiny...the question is..how much? Were radio stocks previously over valued and will the stock prices return in full?
Some would say radio is still recovering from 2008. Some analysts say this is worse.
The stronger stocks still haven't hit their 52 week low.
Not touching Salem with an 8-and-a-half foot pole. They're liable to go bankrupt within 12-18 months. Salem lost $28 million last year, and are more highly leveraged (on a Debt-to-EBITDA basis) than Cumulus was when they went bankrupt. I'd put the odds of a 2021 Salem bankruptcy at maybe 10% as things stand now, but if substantial political revenue doesn't materializeor if their revenue takes a large hit from the COVID-19 outbreak, that could shoot way up.
I won't be buying ETM. They were under pressure to deleverage after the CBS buyout, and now they will be unable to do so once the inevitable fall in advertising revenue hits. That's generally true of all radio players, actually. The biggest players all have high debt right now.
ViacomCBS doesn't seem like a great place to invest. I think the merger was a mistake.
I won't be buying ETM. They were under pressure to deleverage after the CBS buyout, and now they will be unable to do so once the inevitable fall in advertising revenue hits. That's generally true of all radio players, actually. The biggest players all have high debt right now.
ViacomCBS doesn't seem like a great place to invest. I think the merger was a mistake.
K
kf4rca
Guest
The problem is...
Too many players in the business.
&
Other forms of entertainment.
Too many players in the business.
&
Other forms of entertainment.
Kf4rca the voice of reason. Radio's internal--self destruction, and external factors continue to create headwinds for the entire industry.
I can't find the like button. If I could, I would have clicked on it.
Radio was continuing its death spiral in 2019 when the overall economy was in great shape!
Now, we're headed toward a likely recession. Look for ad rates to fall, earnings projections to be missed, and share prices to drop even further. In 10 years, AM radio will be dead. In 20 years, FM radio will be gasping for air and will largely consist of maybe 10 to 12 nationalized formats, and in the biggest metro areas, perhaps a few viable locally programmed stations that offer mass appeal programming. At the margins, you will have special interest groups (foreign language, religious, brokered programming + LPFM operators). I think most listening to audio programming will occur via IP over wireless networks. Think of Spotify, Pandora, Amazon Music, Apple Music, etc. on steroids.
Now, we're headed toward a likely recession. Look for ad rates to fall, earnings projections to be missed, and share prices to drop even further. In 10 years, AM radio will be dead. In 20 years, FM radio will be gasping for air and will largely consist of maybe 10 to 12 nationalized formats, and in the biggest metro areas, perhaps a few viable locally programmed stations that offer mass appeal programming. At the margins, you will have special interest groups (foreign language, religious, brokered programming + LPFM operators). I think most listening to audio programming will occur via IP over wireless networks. Think of Spotify, Pandora, Amazon Music, Apple Music, etc. on steroids.
Think of them all merged into one company and you paying $50 a month. Because that's where we're heading.
The record labels are about to do IPOs because they smell big money.
I was at a music industry seminar last weekend and the main topic was raising the price of streaming.
Meanwhile FM radio will still exist because free is a hard thing to turn down.
Or their current owners and investors want an exit pathway.
Saudi Aramco didn't go public because they needed more capital.
I promise you that Sony isn't looking to get out of the music business.
I agree that streaming pricing will increase with time. Consumer demand for the product will only grow stronger with time.
FM Radio will become an increasingly antiquated way of accessing audio content.
The only people under 30 who listen to radio regularly either have little money, spend time with older adults, tune in for sports play-by-play, or work in a commercial building where cell service is poor or streaming firewalls are in place.
The coronavirus shutdown, and recession that will follow, will change everything, as far as how many services people are going to be willing to subscribe to.
Does anytone other than me think that all audio content being distributed by AT&TVerizonComcast, and the complete elimination of free over-the-air broadcasting, isn't a good thing. Some of you are chomping at the bit to see the towers come crashing down, but maybe not so fast
Does anytone other than me think that all audio content being distributed by AT&TVerizonComcast, and the complete elimination of free over-the-air broadcasting, isn't a good thing. Some of you are chomping at the bit to see the towers come crashing down, but maybe not so fast
The vinyl album is an antiquated way of accessing content, and for some reason, millennials love them. Millennials aren't opposed to antiques. They love old cars and classic rock. So they have no problem with FM radio. They also have subscriptions to online music services. It's not all or nothing. The advantage they see to FM is it doesn't ask them for personal information.
I'm going to chime in again with my FM/IP hybrid approach for autos. This is where FM signals are used for the content delivery and the internet is used for return information and loading specialized audio into these receivers when not being used.
FM is a bully multicast method and eliminates the need for bandwidth in that direction. The "stream" would actually be a HD FM signal. This would be augmented by internally stored audio on each individual receiver, triggered by GPS location, personal schedules, etc. After a period, your radio will actually "get to know you" as it will learn your schedule, commute, habitual stops, friends, etc. and will start downloading offline commercial matter specific to you. This would be an ad buyers fantasy!
Here's something to consider: Recording artists aren't able to tour right now. For some that is their biggest income source. For those who don't get FM play, it's their only revenue. So now they can't make money. Some have taken to doing free shows on Facebook or Instagram. At some point they'll put them behind paywalls. The problem is they need to get mass audiences to tune into their virtual shows. So labels and artists are partnering with radio stations to promote these virtual shows.
Radio, more than streaming, more than satellite, more than anything else, has the power to move large numbers of people to things like this. We see it in concert tickets. So don't play taps for radio yet.
Radio, more than streaming, more than satellite, more than anything else, has the power to move large numbers of people to things like this. We see it in concert tickets. So don't play taps for radio yet.
Agree BigA. I believe you are about to see the biggest shift in listening in the last twenty years. 80 percent of the working class medium age group is about to get their first jolt of real life financial reality and they will be running from monthly payments and Guess who will be there waiting. Plus, sadly radio ads will be pretty sparse for a bit. So ----
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