dbdigital said:
Now how many radio stations are in the LA/Orange/Riverside County areas? 40 or 50+? Obviously only one can be No. 1 and only 10 can be in the top 10 when it comes to audience share. The rest have to find their audiences as best they can. And they can do that with niche programming. If station owners had understood that years ago instead of chasing after the biggest audience share by becoming sound-alikes, radio would be a lot healthier and more vibrant than it is today. Today it is moribund.
Why do you think those people who have satellite radio love it so much? Because, in part, satellite radio has picked up the gauntlet of niche programming long ago thrown down by terrestrial radio. There's so much on satellite to choose from in addition to the clear audio. The same holds true for internet radio.
This is one reason why I admire Saul Levine. As he once said, he long ago threw out the Arbitron book and programs his stations as he sees fit, with programming that is unique to L.A. What's more, he has an audience for his stations.
There are 75 radio stations in the LA metro. Not all cover the entire geography, but all are "eligable" for the local ratings, as are stations that are peripheral to the market, such as some of the San Diego stations in lower Orange County. So there are about 85 stations that have decent signals over at least part of the market.
You have the business model wrong, because you are thinking about 12+ numbers and considering that the #15 station is a "loser."
Radio is not bought by broad demo rank. In fact, none is bought on 12+. Most is bought by subsets of 18-54. Men 18-24, or women 25-44 or Hispanic Men 18-49 or Blacks 18-34 and so on would be typical advertiser goals in any market. So there is a different list of staitons for each significant demo.
An advertiser may buy 5 to 10 deep... so a station that is not top 10 in 12+ may very well be top 5 in the target. This is why KNX and KFWB, the two AM news stations which are not even top 20 12+ are 8th and 12th in market revenue.
Even a station like KWIZ-FM, which is the only Spanish station home to Orange County, can show excellent rankings in an Orange County only Arbitron ranker on Spanish Dominant Hispanics... and the station is like 34th in 12+, but makes several million a year profit!
Since there are subsets of even things like 18-34 Hispanic (there are at least 4 different and non-duplicated formats there, too) it is not surprising that stations go where there is audience that will produce revenue. If it is younger than 18 and older than 55, it is not salable.
The LA market will be up 4% this year, to over $1.1 billion in revenue. That is hardly moribund. That is an increase of over 30% vs. 2001, just five years ago. Moribund, my foot!
Terrestrial threw down the niche guantlet? Give me a break. (To throw down a guantlet is to issue a challenge, so the term is not appropriate and improperly used... but I know what you mean)
There are more different terrestrial formats now than ever before. Previously, before consolidation, there was no cluster strategy, where groups have a spectrum of formats to offer. Before, every owner wanted one of the top formats, so you had 3 or 4 ACs and 3 or 4 CHRs and, in many markets, 3 or 4 Country stations. Screw the Blacks, the Hispanics, etc., because you could not generally be perceived as winning unless you had one of the big formats.
When I was a kid, my market had 4 Top 40's and 3 MOR/AC stations, and one black daytimer. How is that for niche programming. On the other hand, in Mexico City at the same time, where they allowed duopolies then, there was enormous diversity... over 20 distinctly different formats in one market.
There are so few satellite users when compared to terrestrial users. 94% of Americans use terrestrial radio, while satellite does not even generate a half a share point. Satellite is nice for those who did not listen to terrestrial (5% or so) and the light listeners (7% give or take), but it is already developing a huge churn rate (listen to the analyst questions on the XM earnings call) so the satisfaction is waning.
Sol has nearly no audience for his rather dreadful classical station (I have owned one classical staiton ande managed another) and no audience to speak of for his bizarre AMs. He is eccentric, and if he wants to play radio in a big market, fine. His stations are not very good, though. KUSC, with a lesser budget essentially ties KMZT.