Arbitrons: Bad News for Delmarva

[fred flintstone]

The great talk radio wars continue. WDEL (before dropping Hannity) lost one-quarter of their audience share. Where did those people go? Not WILM! WILM is unchanged.

Delmarva's WSTW also takes a big hit. Wilmington's other traditional powerhouse, WJBR-FM, reportedly poised to become a Philly move-in, also takes an audience hit.

Philadelphia stations' audience share in the Wilmington market continues to increase. WDAS-FM and WMMR make big jumps. WIP has a healthy gain (and The Ticket is MIA). FreeFM also gains share.

01. WJBR-FM (Beasley) Adult Contemporary -0.8
02. WSTW-FM (Delmarva) Pop Contemporary Hit Radio -2.0
03. WDAS-FM (Clear Channel) Urban Adult Contemporary +1.3
04. WMMR-FM (Greater Media) Album Oriented Rock +1.5
04. WXCY-FM (Delmarva) Country +0.3
06. WUSL-FM (Clear Channel) Urban Contemporary -0.2
07. WMGK-FM (Greater Media) Classic Rock +0.2
08. WXTU-FM (Beasley) Country +0.4
09. WDEL-AM (Delmarva) News Talk Information -1.0
10. WOGL-FM (CBS Radio) Oldies -0.1

11. WRDW-FM (Beasley) Rhythmic Contemporary Hit Radio +0.5
12. WIP-AM (CBS Radio) All Sports +0.9
13. WYSP-FM (CBS Radio) Talk/Personality +0.8
14. WILM-AM (Clear Channel) News Talk Information 0.0
14. WJKS-FM (QC) Urban Contemporary +0.5
16. WRDX-FM (Clear Channel) Hot Adult Contemporary -0.9
17. WBEB-FM (WEAZ Radio) Adult Contemporary -0.6
17. WIOQ-FM (Clear Channel) Pop Contemporary Hit Radio -0.1
19. WPHI-FM (Radio One) Rhythmic Contemporary Hit Radio -0.2
20. WBEN-FM (Greater Media) Adult Hits -0.3
20. WDSD-FM (Clear Channel) Country -0.5
22. WPPZ-FM (Radio One) Contemporary Inspirational +0.1
22. WRNB-FM (Radio One) Urban Adult Contemporary +0.4
24. WPHT-AM (CBS Radio) Talk/Personality -0.4
25. WISX-FM (Clear Channel) Rhythmic AC Former WJJZ

 

[WTUX]

I really don't believe WDEL lost anybody. The Spring share was abnormally high. The current share is about right, as is WILM's.

WSTW is a big surprise. The loss of Johnny B, who helped the station reach a good number, is really hitting the station hard.

 

[fred flintstone]

Good point. The numbers for the two talk stations bounce all over the place. If anything, Wilmington ratings call into serious question the validity of Arbitron diaries. Probably all sorts of little old ladies are writing WILM in their diaries because that "nice Allan Loudell" came and talked to their club years ago. They don't listen. They don't know he's gone. But they keep writing. And then we have the geezers who aren't sure which station they are listening to.

Other possibilities:

The published shares are AVERAGES for the entire schedule - seven days, 6am to midnight. Weekday daytimes when the most people are listening carries the greatest weight in the averages. We can't see the breakdowns. In all likelihood, WILM's audience profile through the day looks like a circus tent with the poles at 12 noon and 3 pm. Rush holds up the tent. The rest of the schedule are the tent flaps.

Many of the people who listen to both stations don't like change. Maybe all the recent changes have driven away listeners who get confused or can't be bothered.

The election is over (for the latter part of the ratings period). The audience of political talk usually drops.

FreeFM picked up some listeners for lifestyle talk.

We have three months before surveying begins for the next book in Wilmington. Philly will have PPM but Wilmington continues to have diaries. Some more changes coming. One thing won't matter much: Mark Levin at 10pm. More people posting about him on news-talk than will be able to listen via WILM's crap nighttime signal.

Big Meeting at WDEL Monday. Wonder if they got a look at what was coming down from Arbitron?

 

[WTUX]

My experience with the Delmarva Wilmingon meetings is that frequently WDEL AND WSTW are combined for major staff briefings. My guess here is the big drop at 93.7 was a prime topic. No idea of how Dana did in the morning drive slot, but given the magnitude of the decline, those hours must have taken a hit.

WSTW helps pay the bills for WDEL. This hit to the FM will have an impact on WDEL which has now basically redone 6 hours of their broadcast day. Rush and Hannity replaced by "live-local." Its a bad time for a revenue loss. If I were a sales rep, I would much rather be selling time during the Hannity show than what they have on now. This increase in pm drive news is great listener-wise, but it does nothing for the bottom line unless it really picks up listeners during the Spring book.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

I've listened to WDEL's morning and afternoon newscast this past week, and it seems, to my ear, that they have plenty of spot breaks filled with spots. Now I'm assuming some of those are combined buys with WSTW and the "national" spots are "make goods" I'd assume, but then again WDEL isn't airing any national shows now so maybe those national spots like The General's steel buildings, etc, are buys too.

 

[fred flintstone]

WDEL/Delmarva have a national sales rep firm selling the station and the group to national advertisers.
Often ad agency media buyers will buy only the number one station in a given format. As the number one talk station in town, WDEL gets the lion's share of national business targeting talk listeners.
They also have to run all the CBS spots (even though they don't use the TOH news).
AP Radio is a subscription service so no spots are involved.

 

[WTUX]

I am guessing those steel building ads are CBS spots. The key is the number of local vendors you hear.

Even when carrying Rush and Hannity, WDEL was devoting much of the local avails to weather, traffic, and "community" mentions. That means they can't sell out the hour.

 

[fred flintstone]

I am guessing those steel building ads are CBS spots. The key is the number of local vendors you hear.

Even when carrying Rush and Hannity, WDEL was devoting much of the local avails to weather, traffic, and "community" mentions. That means they can't sell out the hour.

One tip-off is to keep an ear out for spots running on both WSTW and WDEL.

Right now, the station has local-live programming - and the heavy overhead that goes with it. I suspect they are waiting for Clear Channel to wield the cost-cutting axe at WILM (as they have elsewhere).

At some point, if Clear Channel does in Wilmington what they have done in their other markets, WILM will be automated, all syndicated and with no local news or a minimal staff feeding the entire Delaware cluster. All syndicated means the talk line-up that has become standard on Clear Channel talk stations: Beck-Rush-Hannity. Plus, Clear Channel is now breaking out a morning drive talk entry into syndication, Jim Quinn (like Rush, a former Pittsburgh top-40 jock).

With WILM essentially a Clear Channel turn-key operation, look for cost cutting at WDEL and a scaling back of local news. With WDEL the only game in town for local news and local programming, they don't need to be so good, they don't to hustle and they don't need to spend as much. As the saying goes, you don't have to good in radio, just better than your competition. With no real competition, you don't have to be very good at all.

But this week, we saw a new possibility emerge for Clear Channel-ologists. Clear Channel is dropping hints that they will be flipping Allentown's longtime AM790 news-talk station to Oldies. This station has a strong local show in morning drive (which is expected to remain) plus the basic Beck-Rush-Hannity line-up. Could "Oldies1450" also be a possibility?

 

[MikefromDelaware]

Or maybe Oldies 1290 and when in season sports at night (BlueRocks, U of D , Penn State, etc). WWTX, (AM 1290) has a strong daytime signal and a decent night time signal, that is at least as good as WILM's if not better. As that station too is basically a turn key operaton other than the one local sports talk show, the ABC Oldies ( Unforgetable Favorites) feed or some other syndicated Oldies program with possibly a live and local morning drive time show might be a profitable path for 1290 to take.

This would allow WILM to be the Delaware "flagship" station for CC Delaware news feeding any of the CC Delaware stations with local newscasts as needed, plus clearing all the CC talk shows for the Wilmington market mentioned earlier. My guess is, as long as John Watson's numbers are good enough or his spot load is good enough for the bean counters, Glenn Beck will still only be available in Philly and Dover. However, when Watson retires, assuming the show has been keeping the bean counters happy I could see WILM putting Ted Efaw on as the new live and local host.

There may be some part of the strategy for the Wilmington cluster that has CC allowing WILM to keep their morning newscast and Watson rather than going all syndicated. So it may be that Ted Efaw would replace Watson someday. Efaw has 10 years experience doing talk and has a boatload of national connections to use as guests. He could have a good show that would blow away WDEL's local talkers, in my opinion. I guess time will tell.

 

[fred flintstone]

There may be some part of the strategy for the Wilmington cluster that has CC allowing WILM to keep their morning newscast and Watson rather than going all syndicated. So it may be that Ted Efaw would replace Watson someday. Efaw has 10 years experience doing talk and has a boatload of national connections to use as guests. He could have a good show that would blow away WDEL's local talkers, in my opinion. I guess time will tell.

I'm a bigger fan of local-live radio than most people.
I'm even starting to think the industry (not to mention the public) would be better served by going back to 60s rules.
But....
Clear Channel has been setting off neutron bombs all across the country.
The buildings stay but the people disappear.
Clear Channel is going automated-syndicated in markets and for local shows with bigger audiences and better sales results.
The mystery is: Why has it taken them so long to get around to an under-performing cluster like Delaware?
They are making cuts (even in top performing stations and clusters). Why should Delaware be immune?

Why buy a cow when milk is free?
Why pay a local host when they've got a syndicated host without clearance in the market?
MFD: Just as ABC Radio would want Levin cleared locally, Clear Channel has even more reason to want Beck on.

Anybody notice? The Ticket has been unlisted from the published Arbitron ratings - not even an asterisk. A couple of asterisks and a station disappears.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

Good point Fred. So if CC does drop the Neutron Bomb in Wilmington and force Watson into retirement and adds Glenn Beck to WILM's lineup giving WILM the typical CC news/talk package of Beck, Rush, Hannity, it seems to make sense and maybe even cents for AM 1290 to go to an Oldies format, even if the Oldies programming is all syndicated without even a morning drive show. Then maybe they'd show up again in the Arbs and maybe even make some money.

Of course, the other side of the coin might be, that CC is billing quite well with AM 1290 as that young male demo is a prized demo to reach, even if it is a small group. That might explain why CC seems to ignore the dismal ratings of AM 1290. I can't think of any other reason for their lack of interest, if the bottomline is being made then their attitude might be why mess with a cash cow, even if only a handful of people actually tune in.

 

[fred flintstone]

Good point Fred. So if CC does drop the Neutron Bomb in Wilmington and force Watson into retirement and adds Glenn Beck to WILM's lineup giving WILM the typical CC news/talk package of Beck, Rush, Hannity, it seems to make sense and maybe even cents for AM 1290 to go to an Oldies format, even if the Oldies programming is all syndicated without even a morning drive show. Then maybe they'd show up again in the Arbs and maybe even make some money.

Of course, the other side of the coin might be, that CC is billing quite well with AM 1290 as that young male demo is a prized demo to reach, even if it is a small group. That might explain why CC seems to ignore the dismal ratings of AM 1290. I can't think of any other reason for their lack of interest, if the bottomline is being made then their attitude might be why mess with a cash cow, even if only a handful of people actually tune in.

Clear Channel distributes Fox Sports Radio, so as with their talk shows, they have an incentive to get it cleared. This is a perfect example of Clear Channel's business model. Run all automated-syndicated, have almost no operating cost. The rest is profit. Heck, they may even be ahead with just incremental revenue from clearing Fox Sports in Wilmington.

The thing in Allentown may be a stunt (Clear Channel appears to have been pulling a few of those lately). WAEB 790 is a much better performer than WILM. It has a local monopoly in the format and a good signal. It's ratings equal WILM and WDEL put together. Clear Channel dropped Oldies on a weaker station (1470) four months ago. So it seems strange they would bring Oldies back on a station that appears consistently to do very well with talk - and take Market 68 (with about 100,000 more people than Wilmington) away from three of their own syndicated hosts. The situations are not exactly equivalent; another company owns the local sports talker.

Clear Channel's business model seems clear: Cut costs to the bone. Clear syndicated shows - the company's own syndicated shows whenever possible. But nothing much is likely to change before the move.

 

[WTUX]

Basically, it is difficult to get a basically daytime-only station into the ratings. AM1260 did it in the early 90's, but that has been it except for a one book entry for WWTX. 1290 hung in there ratigs-wise as long as they aired Standards, but the Sports format is just not making its mark.

Sure, WWTX and 1260 (whatever their call letters are today) are on 24/7. But the low power is a major problem, particularly for the Fall Book. The Spring Arbitrons are your only chance for a good showing.

I can hear 1260 and WILM throughout New Castle County during the 4am-5am time slot. WWTX is nowhere to be found until I get fairly near the tower. I can hear WILM and of course 1260 9-10 at night in the Spring. But if I am trying to hear the Blue Rocks games, the signal fades out before the game is over.

 

[Keith Thompson]

With Beasley's purchase of WJBR and rumored move to Philly, to me it begs the question...does Wilmington really need to be an Arbitron market? I don't think so. If WJBR moves their studios and marketing focus to Philly, it leaves only one true FM station in the market (minus the rimshots) and only leaves two AMs in the market with enough of a market share to show in the book. Under that scenario, I can't really see the benefit for Arbitron to have a top-100 sized market with only three local stations in it. Given Clear Channel's struggles to get numbers in Wilmington, I can certainly see that CC could support a move to dissolve the market because they can sell time on the stations without having numbers to worry about. On the other hand, Delmarva would certainly fight such a move, but given the past relatively weak numbers of WSTW (a station that should always be in double digits and should never drop below a 9 share), I'm not sure the performance of the station justifies having a rated market, especially if they are the only (not very) big dog in it. Of course if the Wilmington market dissolves, it would likely change the direction of some of the FM rimshots. I really don't think WRDX would change much, except that they would likely benefit from not having to worry about their historically underperforming numbers and it would probably mean they would market themshelves more as a Delaware station than as a Wilmington station. WDSD would concentrate on Dover which is pretty much what they're already doing. Delmarva would likely change WXCY to focus more on the Baltimore market where is it probably a better geographic and demographic fit anyway, especially if Cecil County could be reassigned to be a part of the Baltimore market. WJKS would likely be the most affected and would likely go back and become a South Jersey station (along with a format better serving the area) rather than as a Wilmington station.

As for my former station WXCY...we always compared Fall numbers to previous Fall numbers and Spring numbers to previous Spring numbers (because of various factors...generally believed to be signal related...the Fall numbers are always better than the Spring numbers, so it made more sense to compare them that way), and the Fall '06 12+ numbers are over two shares worse than the Fall '05 12+ numbers. So being up three tenths of a share from the Spring '06 book is actually a pretty bad showing. DBC and WXCY have made a number of changes since the Fall '05 book (one of which was getting rid of their MD/APD) so it seems like since the Fall of '05, they've decided to try to fix something that wasn't broken. At least I don't have to worry about it anymore.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

Would the FCC allow WJBR to move to Philly and basically strip Wilmington of one of it's only 2 FM stations? With Keth's scenario of desolving the Wilmington market, that would make Delaware the only state without a radio market. To me it makes more sense to keep WJBR right where it is and also include the Dover stations in Wilmington's market as Wilmington is Delaware's largest city and metro area and Dover is #2, you'd have a pretty solid block of data as to what most Delawarean's are listening to. Maybe the FCC should allow WRDX, WDSD, WJKS, WXCY, and the AM 1510 WFAI to relocate their towers to the Wilmington area to level the playing field for them in this market as they seem to be considered part of this market. That would effectively give Wilmington not just 2 FM's ( WJBR, WSTW) 5 AM's (1150 WDEL, 1260 WNWK, 1290 WWTX, 1380 DELDOT, 1450 WILM) that we now have that have towers in the Wilmington metro area, but 6 FM's 6 AM's which would make a decent survey area. My guess is if all of those statons had their towers in the metro area so that their signals had the strength that WSTW and WJBR have the Philly stations might not do so well in this market. As you all know the work day reception makes a big difference in what stations you choose to listen to. All of those stations come in well in your car, but once you get to work that changes. This is where WSTW, WJBR and the Philly FM's have an advantage. As the Philly stations come in better than most of these rimshot stations mentioned, I believe the Wilmington stations including all the new ones mentioned above would all do better here and those Philly stations would lose major market share here.

 

[fred flintstone]

The FCC has recently allowed two stations to be moved from the Trenton market to Philly. Except for obscenity complaints, the FCC pretty much gives broadcasters whatever they want.
Given that 2/3 of the audience in the Wilmington market is listening to Philly, whether Wilmington should remain a separate market is a valid question (in contrast to Allentown, where out of town stations get one-third of the audience).
Arbitron, however, does not define markets. Arbitron uses Metro Areas as defined by the census bureau and these are defined by factors other than radio listening.
If Wilmington were merged into Philly, it could be good for WJBR-FM and WSTW which could promote and sell themselves as Philly stations.
But not good for the AM stations, which would become suburban stations like WCOJ, WNPV or WBCB. New Castle County has slightly greater population than Bucks County and but far less than Montgomery County.
Wilmington AMs would lose most national advertising and most syndicated programs (because another station in the new and expanded Philly market would have exclusivity). They'd have to make do with local advertising, local programming or 2nd string syndicated shows.
The rim-shot FMs from South of the canal would have to focus on Smyrna, Odessa, Middletown and Dover. Who knows? Those areas might benefit from better radio.
Philly would become the number five market.

 

[WTUX]

The 99.5 allocation dates back to 1947/1948 when it was WTUX-FM. Let's not get into why WTUX lost the allocation! WAMS also had an FM. To lose the 99.5 frequency to Philadelphia would be a disaster to Wilmington radio. Okay, no one really cares any more except us radio geeks, but it still should not be allowed to happen.

As for WXCY, I have trouble accepting it as a Baltimore market station. Havre De Grace stations were always big Cecil and New Castle County outlets, going back to the day when WASA-AM was major player. Working for lowly WSER, I always envied that station.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

Why did WTUX, WAMS lose their FM allocations? Did WILM also have an FM allocation that they also lost? What a difference today those FM allocations would have meant to the Wilmington market.

 

[fred flintstone]

Two more Wilmington FMs:
Would people listen? If no one cares about allocations except radio geeks (as Tux said), would anyone care on what side of a map boundary a station is located (except Delaware geeks)? People listen to programming, not cities of license. FM stations mostly have no local content or local identity. Who whould care where a tower is located?
Would there be enough local ad revenue for two more stations? Wilmington may be number 75 for population but it's closer to 200 for ad revenue. Advertisers can buy Philly and get Wilmington, too. Why buy Wilmington?

 

[OldNumber7]

The 99.5 allocation dates back to 1947/1948 when it was WTUX-FM. Let's not get into why WTUX lost the allocation! WAMS also had an FM. To lose the 99.5 frequency to Philadelphia would be a disaster to Wilmington radio. Okay, no one really cares any more except us radio geeks, but it still should not be allowed to happen.

I still don't see how it could happen, anyway, despite all the rumors. Moving sticks across state lines probably isn't unprecedented but I don't think the commission would be at all convinced that there are compelling reasons for it. In fact, I can't think of one.

As for the bigger issue, I don't see Wilmington disappearing as an Arb market. As fred points out, the metro boundaries are defined by the census and local commerce, not the number of local stations or shares of local listening. If that were the case, larger suburban Arb metros with huge shares of out of market listening wouldn't exist either (e.g. Nassau/Suffolk and others).

Lastly, WXCY has no interest in competing in Baltimore. It's 35 miles away from downtown and much further from the southern and western boundaries of the Balto market. XCY pulls about one point in Balto., but it can never be format dominant (WPOC pulls BIG numbers). In the Wilmington market, on the other hand, it usually is format dominant and puts a great signal finto Cecil and the heart of the growing Bear/Glasgow area -- the last growth area in the I-95 corridor between No. Virginia and Connecticut not already saturated with broadcasters.