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Are the soaps doomed?

Nah, it was just playing through the scenarios. Thinking through the logistics of what could happen.

If AWTW goes away, then CBS has three relatively easy options: as noted, move the survivors to 1 and 2 (with the expansion of B&B to an hour); keep the remaining shows as they are and giv eback 2 pm; or keep them as they are and program 2 pm with something else--talk, game, court, what have you.
 
My 70-something mother was an avid soap viewer for years. She was watching "As The World Turns" when the news of JFK's assassination broke (and she lived in Dallas at the time). She saw Luke and Laura get married. She watched "All My Children" almost from day one.
Then, a funny thing happened. A guy named OJ was on trial for murder and the courtroom proceedings were broadcast daily. She got hooked on the OJ trial. That was 15 years ago, and to this day, she's never gone back to soaps. She watches Law & Order and Food Network during the day.
 
I've found that quite a few people watch "Law & Order"
during the day. I remember that about three years ago,
WTVF, the CBS affiliate in Nashville, moved "ATWT" from
3 PM to its in-pattern time of 1 PM (CT), and right away
a woman complained that the change was going to cause
her to miss "L&O." There are also alternatives like CNN or
Fox News Channel, and I know people who watch reality-
based channels such as the National Geographic channel
during the day. No question that the OJ trial broke a lot
of people of their soap fix.
 
NBC will probably put Days out of its misery the first chance it gets or ship it off to SoapNet......I see nothing but either a fifth hour of Today....or giving the affiliates back the time.

ABC has the strongest daytime lineup....then again, they have SoapNet behind them to give their soaps strong exposure. They'll survive.

CBS...GL's demise is going to be the beginning of the end. Eventually, viewers will tire of Price....thus ending the last great daytime game show on television. Y&R is still strong, thankfully....it may last, along with B&B. ATWT will probably get to the point to where CBS will make it the next to go, and then ending the once-great reign of P&G (or whatever they call their production division now) produced soaps, a reign that started to slowly fall about 25 years ago when ABC canned "The Edge of Night".
 
The question: can SoapNet yet afford a daily production? So far it's only done weekly shows for typically-short cable 'seasons.' (The second question is whether they'd want to bother, but you have to clear the hurdle of it even being a viable option first.)

Price lost a third of its total audience from 1990 until the season before Barker was on his 'goodbye' tour. The open question is whether Price under Drew can breathe some new life into the franchise. What's interesting is that game shows have been slotted to fill the GL void. Is that a sign CBS thinks that genre is ripe for an upswing? And if so, do they think that because they're seeing what they consider positive data in Price's performance? It would be fascinating to hear the discussions that led to the decision to revive a pair of game shows.
 
Not really. A 35 year run with one host isn't going to instantly give way to brand new viewing patterns. Shedding viewers at the upper end of the demo is what's to be expected, which makes the loss look far worse than it really is.
 
imhomerjay said:
tested said:
Going to have to disagree with the numbers presented here. DVR penetration is higher than 25%. It's 40% in some markets.
It does have an effect on ratings and the idea that less than 5% of advertising is skipped is ridiculous.


Let me point you to a footnote in an ABC press release on ratings: http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/06/25/abc-delivers-year-to-year-increases-on-wednesday/21462
A note about increasing DVR penetration and year-to-year rating comparisons: Year-to-year rating comparisons based on the Live + Same Day data stream are distorted by the level of DVR penetration in the Nielsen sample, which has jumped up to 32% currently, from 25% at the same point in 2008. More viewers are watching shows on their own timetables, which may not be reflected in the overnight next day numbers. The only truly valid year-to-year comparison would be one based on the Live + 7 Day metric, once those stats are released by Nielsen.
Click to expand...

From The Economist (April 2009) referencing a Nielsen analysis:

"According to Nielsen, a media-research outfit, 29% of American homes now have one. The boxes are in a higher proportion of the households advertisers most care about. Jack Wakshlag of Turner Broadcasting, a cable company, calculates that DVR-owning households earn about $20,000 more than average. Yet those households do not use them nearly as much as one might expect. Families with DVRs seem to spend 15-20% of their viewing time watching pre-recorded shows, and skip only about half of all advertisements. This means only about 5% of television is time-shifted and less than 3% of all advertisements are skipped. Mitigating that loss, people with DVRs watch more television. "
Click to expand...

Still missing my point. Advertisers do not buy based on +3 or +7 data. They only care about live plus same day data.
If you look at +3 data for a show like 24 or Lost, in some markets the demo numbers DOUBLE over the live plus same day.
That's heavy use of a DVR and a lot of eyeballs watching that will never count toward ad sales. Those people are watching a lot more TV, but it is doing the networks and stations little good since they are not counted as viewers by advertisers.
 
Nothing missed at all. Nor were C-3 or C-7 ratings a part of the citation. What the anlysis demonstrates is that not as much content is being shifted outside the live + same day window as was being suggested. If only five percent of total TV viewing is time shifted, then the C-3 and C-7 ratings are inherently not as relevant at this time.

Yes, some shows like 24 or Lost are outliers and on a market-by-market basis show higher time shifted (outside of the live date) viewing. And on those shows, the buyers take that into account, just as the buyers will take into account those shows that are not being as heavily time shifted. It's heavy use of DVRs by one demo group on certain shows; the analysis shows that it is not the case across the board.
 
Full Disclosure: I watch all CBS soaps, mostly Young and Restless, but keep up with Bold and Beautiful, As The World Turns and Guiding Light.

I think all three network channels will go down to 1 or 2 hours of soaps. In my opinion, that means that ATWT and One Life To Live are goners. The wild card is NBC and Days Of Our Lives. I believe they will keep DOOL after another round of cost cuts. Even though there are fewer soap watchers they are loyal and likely will support advertisers.

On another note, my sister, age 45, is a huge Y&R fan. She hates when they recast and bring on new characters, especially young (teenage) ones. I tried to explain it's to get more people to watch and she doesn't understand. I doubt she'll ever give up on Y&R.
 
I totally agree that ATWT and OLTL will probably be the next to go, being CBS's and ABC's (respectively) lowest-rated soaps when you take GL out of the mix. Days, on the other hand, has great demographics (is within a whisker of passing Y&R) among the 18-49 (and especially 18-34) demo, and has worked its way up to third place overall, and I think that's why NBC will keep it going for the immediate future.

I see a future where CBS has Y&R and B&B from 12:30-2 in the East, ABC has AMC and GH from 1-3, and NBC has Days from 1-2, and that's it, soapwise.
 
Writing: Yes.
seems, even -20 years ago, my mom would watch, and *knew* what would happen,
she worked days, and would FFwd>and, miss :5 minutes or so, into the program; would
not rewind, because very predictible... just like the "male soap" (wwe) is predictible,
but viewers tune in, *hoping* this is the week, in the case of the soap, this is the
SHOW* when some thing WOW_FACTOR occurs... perhaps, in the soaps case,
on a friday, if I am not mistaken.

Also:
the soap recap shows, and magazines, ..help you catch up - thinking that is
good to be able to jump back into your show; however, In MY OWN OPINION
that hinders it... read about it, every couple of weeks, and if some thing
truely AMAZING happens you *may* tune in.

Back to the writing:
COMMENTARY:
too much...unearthly storylines...save that for the cable shows,
perhaps a re-Tooling or back to basics, and have very real
credible, a "yea, i can relate to that" story line to reel viewers back...
(ie: simple example), a single male on the show, simply loses his job...
Instead of a twin/mistaken Identity, and a side-story of a love interest,
which all turns out to be a dream / perhaps, create less, to impact More.

COMMENTARY:
DVR, yes, including myself I have a DVR... however, not soaps, but some thing
that I WANT TO SEE LIVE ! such as the 2009 MLB all star game, well it is LIVE!
can not f.fwd>live tv! as, a result, my favorite commercial (this week) which took
me a minute to "get" was the taco bell "all about the roosevelts" (brilliant!), well,
not brilliant but damn funny!

which puts certain things/shows into perspective: besides the super bowl, shows
you want to watch *LIVE* ( taking away the advantage of the DVR) may be
season/series Finale's , live boxing/UFC/wrestling pay per views.....simply for the
reason, you do NOT want the DVR waiting for you at home, the next evening,
and morning radio, giving the results to dance,talent, idol, or survivor...
OK NOW, you may skip the commercials, but you already know the end-results...
 
One thing that I still can't grapple with is why are the soaps not on TV during early evening, say 7-8pm? Let's say one of the networks moved their showings to this slot, on a nationwide basis. Would it work? Would the local affiliates be kicking and screaming about it?
 
Do you think you could really get the affiliates to give up the lucrative Wheel, Jeopardy, ET etc.? Not a chance.
 
what i am surprised about . . .
soaps dont add extra content online,
and generate a sub-culture via the internet...
and, try to change...or "evolve" the storylines...
maybe by viewers' input * ( some what ) not anything
way too wild, but make it appear the online/internet
influences the show....
or, bring in some big names, to the shows...to try to
increase viewership....

this one may cost $$$,
but come to think of it, the last (wow)
promotion was who shot mr.burns...
(working this in with an online community,somehow),
. . . have a web-created "phantom" story, maybe even
just have it based on rumors...that circulate(?sp) onto the show,
...in some fashion, perhaps a murder ( they still have those on the soaps today, right )?
...be unsolved in the additional content/online part of the website, and slowly,
have it leak into the actual (tv) story... and maybe even have a
tell-all-answer episode, promoting it as....what ever you do, dont miss...
the (example), monday, august 18th,2009 episode....

(heck, create a website, solely for the purpose of the storyline)...hmmmm?
 
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