Are we going to get PPM this year?

[dustintv]

Does anyone know when Buffalo and Rochester are going to start getting PPM in our markets?

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

Last I heard, 2011. Only yesterday (January 5) Radio-Info News reported:

Market #52 is still dealing with the re-building of New Orleans after the destructive 2005 visit by Hurricane Katrina. Arbitron’s Bill Rose tells today’s monthly PPM client conference call that they'll continue monitoring the situation, but won’t proceed with converting New Orleans from diary to PPM measurement.

That was supposed to happen in December, along with the final group of 50 markets which are being “commercialized” with electronic measurement. Charlotte, Orlando, Columbus, Milwaukee, Austin, Indianapolis, Providence, Norfolk, Raleigh and Nashville are all going in September. Greensboro, Jacksonville, West Palm, Memphis and Hartford – but not New Orleans – are going live in December.


New Orleans is market #52, Buffalo is #53.

Question I have about PPM relates to stations that do not subscribe to Arbitron. Will these stations be supplied PPM encoders? If not, their listening won't be reported. Most likely, this will adversely affect stations like WXRL, WECK-WLVL, WSPQ and WJJL in Buffalo and WBTA and WYSL in Rochester.

But since these stations sell "results" rather than performance in a rating book, it may not matter. Nonetheless, it appears at least a few shares of listening will be unaccounted for if the stations don't have the PPM encoders.

The more I read about PPM on these boards and in other publications, the more it appears to have as many flaws (albeit different) as the diary system. It's going to be very interesting and revealing to find out how secondary and tertiary stations perform and how longtime market leaders in all formats might be adversely affected.

How will news-talk and sports stack up, diary vs. PPM? Sports stations, from initial reports, appear to do quite well in PPM. CBS Radio has taken note of this, moving sports onto their FMs in Detroit and Philadelphia. What about news-talkers like WBEN, WECK, WLVL, WNED-AM and WBFO in AM and PM drive?

Morning drive will be an interesting study. We've seen radio stations in markets like Chicago, St. Louis and most recently Detroit release their high profile morning shows, with well-known personalities like Steve Dahl and JC Corcoran shown the door.

Personally, I want to see how midday shakes out in Buffalo, given that it can be a real horse race when the stations and performers are hitting on eight cylinders. For the record, I expect WHTT to have a very strong diary Fall book in all dayparts. Observationally, I want to see if and how WHTT might impact 97 Rock. Personally, I think each station, especially 97 Rock, has a well-defined product and core listeners so this may not be an issue. But when two stations are playing Steppenwolf and CCR in regular rotation, anything can happen.

Early word on PPM is that it's not as much about P-1 listeners as was/is the diary. Because PPM is showing the importance of cume listening, P-2s and P-3s are increasingly important to a station's performance. This could present some interesting (and unsettling) dynamics to stations that have been long time "recall" champs in the diary system.

Most people take (terrestrial) radio for granted. It's always "there" and for the most part, it's free. I can see ratings participants every once in a while "forgetting" to take the PPM unit to work--- or taking it to work and leaving it on their desk while they go about their business in and out of the workplace--- or leaving it in the car. It's not a perfect technology, even though Arbitron has built in sensory detection and other fail-safes.

At work listening is a significant part of an FM music station's daily and weekly cume and quarter hour. It won't be a surprise to see the usual suspects perform as well with PPM, but there could be some quirky variations that lead to further defining or differentiating a format. For example, in Buffalo, Classic Rock and Classic Hits could be stronger in PPM than the diary for the traditionally strong AC stations. This might especially apply to middays, while AM and PM drive might tell another story.

One thing is certain, the advent of PPM (combined with harsh economic realities) has already affected programming in the Buffalo market. How much PPM will affect sales and revenue might be an even harsher revelation.

 

[audio4tv]

The quick and short answer is not any time soon. I asked this question of Arbitron last summer, and the response was similar to what I was told when we did a diary review a year ago. Arbitron is going to do the 1st 50 markets only at this point. New Orleans was not #52 prior to Katrina. Arbitron kept New Orleans in the PPM rollout, due to its demographics and the prior commitment to have PPM in that market, prior to the disaster. So, while Buffalo and Rochester are just outside the top 50, don't expect PPM until after the first 50 are all done, if at all.

 

[chas108]

Allow me to speculate...when you get PPM in the Niagara Frontier may depend on fallout from the heat Arbitron's getting over sample sizes and most importantly urban/ethnic sampling. Most (not all) urbans are tanking in PPM.

So far, I actually like PPM life. When our Arb rep came in to speak, he emphasized repeatedly that PPM is not a mandate to silence air talent. Instead it's showing that listeners want jock content that matters to them. Say something the listener cares about and get to the point. There's not a guideline to talkset length other than once your point is made, wrap it up. There's a lot of radio 101 here, only without shoving call signs and positioners down listeners' throats. Turns out that's a major irritant. Instead we let the imaging drive station position and when doing a live break, work in the calls once where it naturally fits. (Of course it helps our station has been well imaged and positioned for years, according to research taken before PPM came. I wonder where the balance is when you're doing a launch...)

PPM shows on a graph what listeners like and when they tune out. Can't read too much off one graph though, what if one of your meter wearers had to go to the bathroom? Or answer the phone? They have been able to identify some things however:

1) New music will push the line to the bottom. Obviously current-based stations have to play new music, so you gotta figure where in the hour to place it so it does the least damage.

2) Quarter-hours are now swept with spots. New research seems to point to two breaks as most effective... :13-:18 and :43-:48 or thereabouts. Dunno 'bout AM drive...

3) It's all about the cume. TSL is down...WAYYYY down. Shockingly down. Station by station, format by format. Yet the news/talkers, in my neck of the woods anyway, are hanging in there.

4) Listeners really and truly hate radio-speak or even talking up the station's benefits. They equate it with useless chatter about ourselves. You gotta make that kind of content relate to the listener; make it sound like you care about them and you're addressing their concern or question. Alan Burns put out a landmark study last summer on jock content and how little of it relates to the listener. Radio-Info had a link to it in their daily email...so I guess it's ok to attach it here:

http://www.burnsradio.com/articles/content_analysis.htm. Now that I look this over again...I realize I can do better at weaving station stuff into my breaks...

Also, I've heard from multiple sources that listening habits are changing to the point that AM drive is no longer as relevant as it once was. No ratings data to back that up but I'm hearing it more...and not from people who have to sign paychecks or set station budgets.

Jim, it's interesting to read your observations on PPM, it's good food for thought. Hope a little insight from someone already living in it will be helpful too. I'm just afraid that management will use PPM to further restrict talent when the reality is it can help focus talent and make us more effective and entertaining. Fortunately my PD is using it to do the latter...at least for now. As we all know, you can never assume anything about tomorrow. Especially not in 2010.

 

[NeedsMoreCowbell]

PPM won't be coming to Buffalo any time soon for the same reason it isn't coming to New Orleans: exorbitant cost.

Consider how clusters are already paying close to a half mil yearly for an admittedly imperfect diary system. Consider also that national ad sales continue to dwindle. If you sell based on results, and national ad sales account for 20% or less of your total revenue, why would anyone spend upwards of 65% MORE for PPM than the diary system? For that matter, why would anyone want to continue paying for the diary system at all?

I think Regent, Citadel, and Entercom could find better ways to spend $500,000 a year in Buffalo than for a quarterly report card. Are bragging rights really that important?

It's a different world, and there are other ways to determine "rank" these days. Arbitron knows this, which is why they are trying to push markets into PPM a lot faster than they originally intended. They're hoping their gravy train doesn't run out, but New Orleans is just the tip of the iceberg. As contracts expire, expect many more markets fed up with arbitron's monopoly to bolt.

Of course, this is only conjecture on my part.

My question for the group is: does any cluster in Buffalo have the cojones to say "no" to arbitron?

 

[Element9]

Plenty of insight and truth in the posts here especially regarding the cost of PPM to companies who subscribe to Arbitron and the impact it's having on air talent. In many cases PPM is being used as a not-so-underlying reason to shut up the jocks or dismiss them outright. There's an anecdotal argument to be made by programmers and consultants that listeners don't want to hear live radio personalities.

As noted by Chas, it's not that listeners don't want to hear jocks. Early PPM indicates that listeners want relevant information and dialogue that's unlike what's been provided by most air talent over the years: Positioning statements and slogans, snappy one liners, cheezy station posturing and talking it up to the post or the vocal.

No longer will stations be able to "repeat the lie so that it becomes truth." Sloganeering like "the best rock" or "today's hottest hits" won't pass the laugh test with PPM.

The suggestion that stations may choose to forego Arbitron and its exhorbitant expenses goes beyond theory, in some markets, it's a reality. (Oh dear, what would we write about if the 12+ ratings weren't posted on RI?) It may be that broadcasters need only two major surveys a year.

Conventional wisdom has it that Spring and Fall are the most important survey periods. It may be that markets like Buffalo and Rochester don't need more than two rating periods. OTOH, everything is being quantified these days. Want to know how many people visited your website or clicked a page or an ad? The information is all readily avaliable through Alexa and other information-combing and drilling sites. So scaling back to two rating periods a year may not be acceptable to the advertising community.

The post regarding "selling results" is particularly relevant because radio has always been a results driven medium. Despite listeners complaints about commercials, a well written and well produced commercial that's properly targeted and rotated will get results. Small market O&O's especially know that nothing beats having a client renew because the last commercial flight on the station helped the client sell 20 snowmobiles, outdoor grills or lawn mowers. Not even Arbitron can beat that.

 

[Bob1370]

I might be dating myself, but I can remember two four-week survey periods a year in a top-30 market like Buffalo was in 1977-78, and only four such rating periods even in New York City. Had its good and bad points. The best? A lot cheaper for everyone concerned. The worst? A lot of stunts and distorted programming strategies for the period of the book, which could lead to fluky results that could cost you and would take three to six months to overcome.

Overall, I prefer being in ratings 48 weeks a year because it rewards a consistent programming approach over stunting.

That has nothing to do, of course, with the rating method, which is a whole different issue. PPM will be accurate at catching all incidental exposure to a station's programming but won't give you a good indication of how much impression a station made on a listener, or whether that impression was welcome and helpful to someone buying time on that station or unwelcome and annoying. The diary tells you a lot more about whether a station made a meaningful, positive impression on a listener--something that may be of more value to an advertiser than just knowing if someone carrying a meter was passing by while someone else nearby was tuned to a station.

To me, the best approach would be to employ BOTH methods simultaneously in all continuously measured markets and either average them to report a combined figure, or report them separately and allow the survey buyer to draw his own conclusions after reading the reports and looking at the comments in the diaries. It would be worth paying Arbitron a little more to get a better sense of not only who's listening when, but how much of an impression the station is making and whether that listening is welcomed, accidental or even unwanted.