Audacy Stock today

[cc333]

I see.

How are the relatively tiny, local companies, such as, say, the one the Ostlund have going (One-Putt?) out of Fresno, doing?

I doubt their Drake-Chenault "boss radio" KYNO recreation is making them much money, but it's a nice effort, and a decent, if financially questionable use of 50,000 watts.

I notice that it seems mostly automated (likely to minimize costs, since hiring live talent can be quite expensive), and they only have one or two jingles (virtually every other song is introduced with "KY-NO Number One!"; I wish they'd use the full range of Drake-Chenault Series 1 package jingles for a more authentic sound), but it's fine for what it is (I'd listen to it more, but It's too distant to receive well).

c

 

[Kelly A]

Part of a bankruptcy filing could include Audacy’s request to cancel certain contracts including with sports teams but a bankruptcy filing wouldn’t automatically invalidate contracts.

Sure, and you could be struck by a meteor walking from the parking lot to the store today. Or, I could be bitten by a shark in my driveway. Not sure why you'd choose to speculate on what the future brings for some radio company, that like many other media companies, is facing some unpredictable market headwinds.

 

[SirRoxalot]

I think it depends on if radio stations will continue to pay lower rates for music rights. That might be the only reason that the big markets will keep towers and transmitters active. With multi-path interference and increased desire for any kind of bandwidth, that spectrum may become more valuable for digital transmission than the relatively limited capabilities of analog transmission. It may take another generation, perhaps two, but even FM listening is declining as people switch to smart speakers and listening on apps. Advertisers can get far more detailed reports on actual listening from online tracking than they can with meters or diaries.

OTA radio will likely survive longer in smaller markets that have better line-of-sight and poorer internet and cell service. People, especially telecoms, like to cite big coverage numbers, but the reality is that service is lacking and/or expensive in a lot of areas with less dense populations.

 

[davideduardo]

I never said anyone is forced to sell to EMF. One of my posts has been deleted by the moderator. I said EMF is a business and Religion is their product. You're right, EMF is no different from any other group. However, if someone tried to a Nationwide format on Druids, Wiccans, or Satanists there would be howls of protest...

If they had the money to buy stations, it would be perfectly legal.

I point out the folks at Pacifica, who have had a bunch of major market FMs since the 50's.

One of the directors, Bella De Soto, says, "My global geopolitical viewpoint is framed within a Socialist-Atheist perspective, on Social, Economic and Political eclectic models that represent all colors."

If you look at directors, candidates and former directors you see a lot of the same: Pacifica Election Candidate List

You also see a lot of splinter and narrow ideologies all together in the mush-mash that is Pacifica programming.

 

[davideduardo]

Would there be any harm in breaking these companies up into smaller, more regional subsidiaries or independent entities? As was pointed out earlier, GE did something like this, and there's now a chance that the core company (the one still known as GE) might actually become profitable again.

Given the steady rate of decline over the past 20+ years, it seems nobody has found a way to fix it yet.

In places as diverse as France and Colombia, radio adapted to the Web by creating true national networks with coverage of the whole nation. On top of that, they have build solid, listenable brand extensions that stream a huge variety of format variants. And their websites have the best local news, traffic, sports and events info for the target audience of each.

Just look at Nostalgie, NRG and Cherie in France for an example of a national service that you can hear "everywhere".

Only EMF seems to have figured this out in the US, and look who about the only significant station buyer of recent years has been!

What would make sense is for some of the big station owners to do station trades amongst themselves so that they could achieve coverage of at least the top 200 markets with one or two signals each instead of big clusters in some places and no stations at all in others.

Advertisers would love that, as it mirrors the way they buy both the traditional TV networks, the cable networks and the Internet in general.

 

[TheBigA]

How are the relatively tiny, local companies, such as, say, the one the Ostlund have going (One-Putt?) out of Fresno, doing?

Funny you should ask. They just settled a multimillion dollar music royalty lawsuit brought on by Global Music Rights:

Global Music Rights Settles Months-Old Radio Group Lawsuits

Global Music Rights (GMR) has officially settled a pair of lawsuits that it levied against two radio groups in October of 2022.

www.digitalmusicnews.com

 

[Voicetrack of Reason]

We've had this conversation before: There are only two ways to increase revenue: More spots or raise their rates. Right now, listeners feel there are already too many spots. And advertisers have stopped buying radio because its too expensive. Raising prices in an advertising depression is not a good idea. So they can't increase revenue from their broadcast stations. That's why they've been trying to grow their digital business.



The alternatives to the Fields are not better. The alternatives are vulture capitalists who have no emotional attachment to the concept of local radio that Joe Field had. They will turn Audacy into a commercial version of EMF. Earlier in this thread, I suggested a white knight, along the lines of what John Malone did for Sirius. It appears there's no such thing for radio anymore.

Jeffrey Warshaw?

How about CMG?

 

[Kent]

Jeffrey Warshaw?

I'd be surprised to see Warshaw bail Audacy out unless he can get rid of most of the current shareholders.

How about CMG?

CMG is owned by Apollo now. Cox had to twist Apollo's arm to get it take the radio stations along with the TV group, and Apollo really only capitulated after other attempts to sell the radio group fell apart. CMG's radio side is more likely to be sold than expanded.

 

[TheBigA]

Jeffrey Warshaw?

How about CMG?

Warshaw has made several bids for Cumulus, and he was rebuffed. Cumulus is a smaller company with less debt. The problem with Warshaw is he doesn't actually have the money. He would use the stations as collateral on his new loan. That means he's just adding debt to a company that's already in debt. Audacy needs someone with deep pockets who has the cash and doesn't need a loan.

CMG is owned by Apollo Global Management. If they were to buy Audacy, there would be required market sales in Atlanta and other places.

 

[Kelly A]

Funny you should ask. They just settled a multimillion dollar music royalty lawsuit brought on by Global Music Rights:

Global Music Rights Settles Months-Old Radio Group Lawsuits

Global Music Rights (GMR) has officially settled a pair of lawsuits that it levied against two radio groups in October of 2022.

www.digitalmusicnews.com

 

[MarkW]

Keep in mind that the trigger for bankruptcy won't happen until November 2024.

Not necessarily.

If they breach their First Lien Net Leverage Ratio covenant prior to that time, or if a CPA firm refuses to give an unqualified audit opinion, of if they breach their minimum liquidity covenant prior to that time (relatively unlikely), they might have little choice but to file for Chapter 11.

Also, if they reach consensual deals with their creditors to restructure via a prepackaged filing, they could choose to file sooner. Active defaults do not necessarily need to exist for a company to voluntarily enter Chapter 11.

Regarding the notion of rejecting sports contracts, those would definitely be on the table in a bankruptcy proceeding (just as they are right now as part of Diamond Sports Group's Ch 11 case). It would be completely up to Audacy to decide which contracts to keep and which ones to void (the term Bankruptcy case law uses is "reject"). The same rules would also apply to employment agreements, programming agreements, operating leases (including real estate leases), etc. Chapter 11 bankruptcy is how Cumulus terminated its LMA of WLUP in Chicago, for example. They also terminated their pre-existing LMA of WKQX but ultimately negotiated a new deal for that station, which resulted in Cumulus purchasing it outright.

 

[TheBigA]

If they breach their First Lien Net Leverage Ratio covenant prior to that time, or if a CPA firm refuses to give an unqualified audit opinion, of if they breach their minimum liquidity covenant prior to that time (relatively unlikely), they might have little choice but to file for Chapter 11.

But as I said in that post #166, they also lowered their minimum liquidity covenant, and they're currently ten times above that.

It will take them a year and a half to sell the assets that they've set aside. Even if the get top price for those assets, it still won't get them to $600 million. So they have real work to do. Looking at Cumulus, they sold $300 million in tower land and other assets, and still had to file chap 11. Then they sold another $100 million in stations to EMF and others. And they still have a pile of debt, and their stock is struggling. The conclusion I reached a few years ago is that radio companies aren't meant to exist alone without any other revenue streams. Radio is a great business if you also own grocery stores or car dealerships. But alone, not so much.

 

[Tibbs4]

BigA - it is interesting and I am a bit shocked at Sirius' issues compounding sop quickly. Their issue is also poor corporate greed and "decision" making. That is an issue that is really compounding across many businesses and they could have seen that with the way radio has been tracking. We need to see what companies/corps (related to this industry and Sirius) have huge debt vs. companies with little or no debt and see if there is a pattern of better stock prices.


The bubble could not continue and yet "no one ever saw it coming."


Wait a second - just saw post #192 and accompanying comments. Thar we are... liquor stores, my friend. not grocery stores. Drowns the reality of impending Titanic disasters ahead.

 

[TheBigA]

BigA - it is interesting and I am a bit shocked at Sirius' issues compounding sop quickly. Their issue is also poor corporate greed and "decision" making.

Maybe you can explain that. When I went to school, we were taught that greed was good. I never had to take a vow of poverty.

 

[TheBigA]

Wait a second - just saw post #192 and accompanying comments. Thar we are... liquor stores, my friend. not grocery stores. Drowns the reality of impending Titanic disasters ahead.

I was in that business while waiting for my radio career to take off. Nobody ever lost money owning a liquor store.

 

[Tibbs4]

I would generally go off on ya, like usual, but I made a POOR choice of sentencing. I dunno what even I meant by "poor corporate greed." And I am sober. I can't elaborate. Deduct the poor for sure.

I can elaborate and say I hope you didn't fall for the college scam that "greed is good." You know all tooooo well that greed is far worse than poverty. But, profits ain't a bad word...

In the words of Donnie Iris - "Ah Leah, here we go again...."

Re: Liquor Stores - Actually, some people do not make it. Thin retail margins thanks to monopoly wholesalers, government taxes and restrictions and the GREEDY monopoly wholesalers and greedy government bull, I mean bureaucracies. But, it is still dang tough. Well have to discuss this offline. So technically, you have to thank that liquor store time for making you the success you are today? You got out before the gin kicked in! LOL.

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

To Get Out Of NYSE Noncompliance Jam, Audacy Plans Reverse Stock Split For May.

To come back into the New York Stock Exchange’s good graces and avoid having its faltering stock delisted, Audacy will implement a reverse stock split in May, subject to shareholder

www.insideradio.com

Update on Audacy.

 

[ercjncpr]

To Get Out Of NYSE Noncompliance Jam, Audacy Plans Reverse Stock Split For May.

To come back into the New York Stock Exchange’s good graces and avoid having its faltering stock delisted, Audacy will implement a reverse stock split in May, subject to shareholder

www.insideradio.com

Update on Audacy.

Their stock briefly rose to 18 cents per share before falling again

 

[Kelly A]

I would generally go off on ya, like usual, but I made a POOR choice of sentencing. I dunno what even I meant by "poor corporate greed." And I am sober. I can't elaborate. Deduct the poor for sure.

So, let me ask you something.. Are you saying that all businesses that make, or endeavor to make money are considered greedy?

 

[TheBigA]

I'm pretty sure Audacy knows a reverse split is a short term solution. It will need to be combined with other things such as asset sales and other changes in their financials to make a difference. They addressed that during the investor call.

There are obviously people who play the penny stock market and wait for things like this to make a short term profit. They might buy at 10 and have an auto sell order in place when it hits 15 or something like that.