I agree, and believe that Seattle is mirroring the Bay Area in many ways. Plus agree that radio is skewing older. As Millennials age and GenZ follow, media consumption habits line up accordingly. I would bet that, especially in markets like Seattle/Tacoma and San Francisco/San Jose, frequent radio listeners under 30 are becoming fewer. These generations use smartphones for all their media.
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August 2022 PPM 6+ Mon-Sun, 6a-12mid
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KQMV is actually up in the demo's that matter. KSWD is definitely driven by older demos, if they try to brighten or get younger they would run into KRWM, unless they went HOT-AC after KPLZ, which I doubt given KPLZ's numbers. Got a look at revenue for the market to date. Your big winners are KIRO-FM, KISW, KQMV, KJEB, KIRO AM. All do well in 25-54 male or female, which tends to support the proposition that ratings do matter a bit still. Not saying you can't be profitable as a low rated sports or talk station, you can. Big revenue winners still tend to get ratings. CHR does seem to be having issues musically everywhere and Classic Hits is having quite a good run 25-54 in many markets. Nice to see the I-heart investment in talent and marketing paid off for them. Wish other broadcasters would do the same. Talent is a key difference between traditional radio and streaming jukeboxes. Gives you a reason to tune in if you enjoy the talent and music.
If we had access to the amount of revenue each station took in, I'm sure we would be able to make much more accurate predictions about this stuff, but we don't. Tell me though how moving the already #2 station in a format where your competition is AM only to FM just for more network programming on the AM side makes anymore money than keeping the music going on FM? Sure it's only been six months, but for the sake of argument, if KJR's revenue on 93.3 in 2023 is exactly where it was this year, and the revenue 950 takes in is exactly where 1090 was during the same time period, and 1090 is lower than it was before the change to talk, was there really any benefit to moving KJR to 93.3?
And therefore, your statements that KJR since moving to 93.3FM is a failure and that they should go back to AM, is completely ridiculous because you lack any substantive data to back up that claim...
Because (as been mentioned here by actual professionals many times) sports radio is not a ratings sell, but a demographic/lifestyle sale. And because many agencies no longer consider AM to be worth their time in trying to reach the sports fans. If you're not on FM, you're technically not on the radio where anyone listens. As formats go; established sports stations in major markets make money. Agencies who represent beer, on-line gambling, autos, and entertainment, automatically buy on established sports stations without even having to look at ratings, let alone useless 6+.
Again, you may as well be basing your argument on magic beans purchased in Greenwood, because drawing a conclusion on 6+ ratings is equally meaningless.
iHeart doesn't sell their stations individually to clients, they sell them as a cluster. So you need to consider how any one format decision affects the overall cluster. KUBE wasn't doing anything to help them, it didn't fit the core advertising demo of 25-54 or 35-54 that most of their cluster supports and that most advertisers use. Sports on FM does.
Valid points as usual. However one question, Bonneville tied the translator they bought in 2016 to KTTH, not KIRO. If agencies don't buy AM as you say, then why would the FM be tied to the talk station that's never top 10 in billing rather than the sports station that's #5? And, if agencies don't buy AM as you say, how is KIRO even that high? Eliminating KUBE may have been a smart move in terms of cluster strategy, but until I am proved otherwise, my argument that simply moving an already low rated station, no matter the format, from AM to FM won't automatically reverse its fortunes.
I can't speak to what Bonneville does, I don't work for them. Because translators can't replicate the coverage of a 50kW AM station I assume. Therefore, ad agencies don't care about translators. As to your second question about KIRO; game coverage is sponsored for those games within a season. It's part of the contract with the team, who are likely the ones who get the revenue for most ads within the game. The local station(s) get the ad revenue from the pre and post game shows. Neither are directly affected by 6+ ratings, but sponsorship of the game play by play and separately of pre and post game coverage.
Regarding your comment about eliminating KUBE, think about it for a second: CHR stations have been getting crushed for several reasons, and teens don't listen to the radio anymore (unless while riding in mom's minivan) Here you are with a 100kW Class C FM station with your audience drying up. Over here you have an established AM sports talk station which does a good job of filling out your cluster demographics, particularly the coveted 18-54 males. But the AM audience is dying off, literally, and in order to compete for future sports contracts, you better have sports on FM. Sure, there will be a transition, but iHeart is doing this by playing the long game, not short game. If you're doing sports, especially on FM, advertising agencies want to reach that audience. I was there when KJR switched from music to sports, and the ratings did something very similar. It didn't matter then either, because once the ad agencies found sports, they wanted in. Being FM just cements KJR's commitment to a profitable format.
I can't speak to what Bonneville does, I don't work for them. Because translators can't replicate the coverage of a 50kW AM station I assume. Therefore, ad agencies don't care about translators. As to your second question about KIRO; game coverage is sponsored for those games within a season. It's part of the contract with the team, who are likely the ones who get the revenue for most ads within the game. The local station(s) get the ad revenue from the pre and post game shows. Neither are directly affected by 6+ ratings, but sponsorship of the game play by play and separately of pre and post game coverage.
Regarding your comment about eliminating KUBE, think about it for a second: CHR stations have been getting crushed for several reasons, and teens don't listen to the radio anymore (unless while riding in mom's minivan) Here you are with a 100kW Class C FM station with your audience drying up. Over here you have an established AM sports talk station which does a good job of filling out your cluster demographics, particularly the coveted 18-54 males. But the AM audience is dying off, literally, and in order to compete for future sports contracts, you better have sports on FM. Sure, there will be a transition, but iHeart is doing this by playing the long game, not short game. If you're doing sports, especially on FM, advertising agencies want to reach that audience. I was there when KJR switched from music to sports, and the ratings did something very similar. It didn't matter then either, because once the ad agencies found sports, they wanted in. Being FM just cements KJR's commitment to a profitable format.
Your comment about playing the long game makes me wonder about certain owners and stations. The best example I can think of right now is 93.3 in Austin. That station moved Austin City Limits radio from 93.3 to 97.1 translator in 2019, and has had something like four identities since, now seemingly finding a format that can work for them. I do a show with a friend that talks about format changes, and since I took over as primary cohost in mid-2018, there are already stations it seems like we're talking about a lot.
That is why I have stuck pretty consistently to my timeline of a flip at 93.3 Seattle. That gives iHeart 21 months to decide whether sports on 93.3 was worth the move. The question is, will every ratings thread on this board from now until then evolve into criticism of that move?
That is why I have stuck pretty consistently to my timeline of a flip at 93.3 Seattle. That gives iHeart 21 months to decide whether sports on 93.3 was worth the move. The question is, will every ratings thread on this board from now until then evolve into criticism of that move?
In most cases, though, agencies really don't look at "AM" of "FM" if the demos match the target and the cost per point is in line with the goal.
Since AMs don't have -AM as a suffix, many buyers are not even aware that a station they are buying is not FM.
Format changes are very expensive and unless considered strategic, are usually considered somewhat a last resort. iHeart gave CHR a long time in Seattle before moving KJR to 93.3FM. Since sports plays to an advertising base which is much less reliant on ratings (and certainly not 6+), KJR on FM can only go up from here. I seriously doubt they're doubting their decision based on six months. I am confident they did ample research before making the move, which was an informed decision.
Something else to consider; is how much outside promotion have you seen on the move? TV, billboards? You may start to see more in the upcoming months.
Your prediction still isn't based on anything substantive. It's just an uninformed prediction.
Only for those who don't understand that 6+ ratings aren't an indicator of success or failure of a radio property.
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All good points as usual. Your point about format changes makes me wonder even more why it seems we see certain stations changing constantly.
As for my prediction, I'm basing it off the information I have, even if it's not anywhere near accurate. Isn't that part of what these boards are for?
As for my prediction, I'm basing it off the information I have, even if it's not anywhere near accurate. Isn't that part of what these boards are for?
They are promoting KJR pretty heavily on all of the other iHeart stations in Seattle. As for a format flip, it won’t happen anytime soon due to the significant cost, and the fact that there is nothing to flip to right now. If you are to tell me that both Audacy and Hubbard dropped their country formats in Seattle, then sure, a flip could happen. However, iheart isn’t interested in entering another competition for listeners. I think it’s good to recall that iHeart left KUBE alone for a long time before throwing in the towel on the format. It was NOT a high performing station, but it was probably doing well enough not to reduce the perceived value of their entire market portfolio to potential advertisers. Moving sports to FM was a natural fit, and it seems to me like they are indeed playing the “long game” by having their programming on FM. You can certainly make the argument that KJR is not as strong as KIRO in terms of programming, but being on FM at least gives them a jumping off point to make improvements as time goes by.
To add to that, Hubbard is running iHeart's Bobby Bones Show, so iHeart gets the promotional benefits of being in Seattle without owning a station with the format.
Wouldn't you feel better about making predictions or assumptions based on actual facts or knowledge? That's a big problem with the country today; people thinking their 'feelings' are more important than actual data or facts.
So you're telling me that the National Ad folks over at iHeart didn't alert the agencies what the big news was? And are you also saying that agencies wouldn't rather be buying on FM stations than AM, considering the demos?
The agency buying function outside of a home station's market involves buyers who do many, many markets and don't buy unless certain metrics are met. The key metric is cost per point against the target demo, but followed by sustained audience in that area... 6 books or more.
National agency selling does not frequently involve pitching directly to the buyers station by station.
If a station hits the target demo, whether it is AM or FM is often not even analyzed.
Didn't iHM try FM sports before on 102.9? Didn't they ditch that strategy after a rather limited amount of time?
When certain posters were ridiculing me for even suggesting that iHM dump KUBE from 93.3, I thought Sports was the proper strategic move. On paper, I still think it is.
However, the fact KIRO is wiping the floor clean with KJR-F in the ratings cannot be ignored. There seems to be a quality of programming issue with 93.3. Hopefully that gets fixed with time.
When certain posters were ridiculing me for even suggesting that iHM dump KUBE from 93.3, I thought Sports was the proper strategic move. On paper, I still think it is.
However, the fact KIRO is wiping the floor clean with KJR-F in the ratings cannot be ignored. There seems to be a quality of programming issue with 93.3. Hopefully that gets fixed with time.
They really just need one host for sports fans to be passionate about. Just one person on one shift that they could build a station around, and give people a reason to listen. That's the difference between The Sports Hub in Boston and their much lower ranked competition.
My take is they could broadcast a Seahawks game and still end up with a 1 share.
If you're talking about the rimshot that didn't cover the entire market? Yes, but 93.3 is a full market signal. That, and AM continues losing listeners, plus sports teams prefer their games be carried on a full market FM signal where the listeners are.
6+ ratings can be ignored. Doesn't matter what the format.
Really? Isn't that the same programming that was on 950kHz?
Agreed. But KIRO is also wiping the floor clean with KJR-F in the demos that matter for sports radio.
I'm not exactly sure what point you are attempting to make. A different (much broader) audience uses the FM ecosystem than the AM radio ecosystem. Moving the AM station's programming to FM with zero lineup or content changes might not be the best idea. Depends on the situation.
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