Not exactly. I have had my share of great business purchases and a few rotten eggs. As a "buyer" I just would never fall for the multiples game or that "that's just what the station is worth." Mind you, I wasn't buying in the Top 100 market, so that would certainly be different. As a seller, well, obviously if someone was willing to pay a premium that included almost laughable multiples....SOLD. I think you have heard me speak of that a few times. I was very fortunate to be gifted some nice offers for something that I didn't value as worth what they were willing too pay. I never got even 10% of the businesses I considered buying. More like 3%, I am guessing. But, I still reflect and study all those attempts, even today. I am not sure I benefitted enough from my studies. I still screw up.
When I tried to buy stations back in the 80's and 90's, I looked at what the stations sold for in the years prior and gave it my best shot/offer. Some worked. Most did not. But, when the players in the market came on strong and had deep pockets. as deregulation and the urgency to buy every viable station heated up to the frenzy, few single owners could refuse the offer. Most, as you will recall, took the stock options and look where they ended up. Again, I just knew that IF I had paid those prices, I could not have been profitable and all the cuts in the world would not really have validated the purchase prices. There is always a downturn. Next year may be "that year." Many are predicting a 2008-ish eruption in 2020. I am not sure. But, I always have learned that you generally are best to remember that what you pay for something is the most important part of the equation. These guys were so eager that they became delusional with the belief that they could withstand practically anything. My sentence speaks for itself. Not many people were thinking beyond 1997 back in 1996. As for what Karmazin did was certainly perceptive.I have never heard that. Interesting point. He saw the internet as radio's competition. That meant that he saw it as something that would hurt radio. Or, and I am not sure, did he believe the internet was at that time not worth the time and effort? To be honest, my gut always told me that after AM went to FM, that eventually something would come along to challenge FM. Also, a bit off the subject, but for clarification, I also have brick and mortar businesses and while I have been able to grow business each year despite so many new buying options, it's not easy and the end will eventually come like old Main Streets. Something always takes something's place. Even if it's an empty shell of a building or a dark station. I would think anyone putting his or her own money on the line would at least have a few sleepless nights thinking about that before pulling the business trigger. Hopee the heck that made some sense. I am confused now.