Bay Area Radio predictions for the next six months

[HenryOchs]

What are your predictions for Bay Area radio for the next six months? Here are mine:

1. "Rapture" predictor Harold Camping will be forced to sell his San Francisco radio
station KEAR to a commercial broadcaster.

2. The Country music format will return to San Francisco

3. KYLD (WiLD 94.9) will begin simulcasting on satellite radio

4. KLOK will be sold(again) and will flip to Adult Standards

5. The Cumulus/Citidel merger will be finalized and the new company will flip its
San Jose station 97.7 KFFG back to CHR/Rhythmic HOT 97.7

That's how I see Bay Area radio in the next six months

 

[RadioJunkieMike]

What are your predictions for Bay Area radio for the next six months? Here are mine:

5. The Cumulus/Citidel merger will be finalized and the new company will flip its
San Jose station 97.7 KFFG back to CHR/Rhythmic HOT 97.7

are you taking the big KFOG "tweak" into consideration here?

 

[DavidKaye]

That's how I see Bay Area radio in the next six months

I see no significant changes anywhere. Radio revenue is rising, so even the dogs look better than they did 6 months or a year ago.

 

[Madmansam]

What are your predictions for Bay Area radio for the next six months? Here are mine:

1. "Rapture" predictor Harold Camping will be forced to sell his San Francisco radio
station KEAR to a commercial broadcaster.

2. The Country music format will return to San Francisco

3. KYLD (WiLD 94.9) will begin simulcasting on satellite radio

4. KLOK will be sold(again) and will flip to Adult Standards

5. The Cumulus/Citidel merger will be finalized and the new company will flip its
San Jose station 97.7 KFFG back to CHR/Rhythmic HOT 97.7

That's how I see Bay Area radio in the next six months

#1:What commercial broadcaster would be interested in 610? Probably just another brokered religious or ethnic company. #2Of all of your predictions, this one will probably happen again but not in 6 months. #3 not sure of this. I know CC has a few of their stations on XM, so this might happen but again, in 6 months? #4 A Big NO! 'Nuff Said. #5, another No. Not as big as #4 but close enough. I don't think Cumulus would drop the KFOG simulcast but if they did, the whole KFOG would go and replaced by either KGO or KNBR. Definately not back to Hot 97.7

 

[LKellerIII]

What are your predictions for Bay Area radio for the next six months? Here are mine:

1. "Rapture" predictor Harold Camping will be forced to sell his San Francisco radio
station KEAR to a commercial broadcaster.

2. The Country music format will return to San Francisco

3. KYLD (WiLD 94.9) will begin simulcasting on satellite radio

4. KLOK will be sold(again) and will flip to Adult Standards

5. The Cumulus/Citidel merger will be finalized and the new company will flip its
San Jose station 97.7 KFFG back to CHR/Rhythmic HOT 97.7

That's how I see Bay Area radio in the next six months

#1:What commercial broadcaster would be interested in 610? Probably just another brokered religious or ethnic company. #2Of all of your predictions, this one will probably happen again but not in 6 months. #3 not sure of this. I know CC has a few of their stations on XM, so this might happen but again, in 6 months? #4 A Big NO! 'Nuff Said. #5, another No. Not as big as #4 but close enough. I don't think Cumulus would drop the KFOG simulcast but if they did, the whole KFOG would go and replaced by either KGO or KNBR. Definately not back to Hot 97.7

My predictions - little change on the radio dial in the next 6 months or year. Both Clear Channel and CBS are going strong with their current line-up. 103.7 is picking up steam. OK - I guess Live 105 is weak, but its been weak for a long time now - why change now? The sports format on 95.7 is too new to go anywhere - it will be around for at least a year - much longer if it gains ratings, of course. I don't think Cumulus will either drop the 97.7 simulcast, or simulcast KGO/KNBR. KFOG is a heritage station with a loyal following (though likely growing smaller), and if they're successful in bringing the younger demo in, they have a few good years of life yet. I think Hank just really liked Hot 97.7, and would like it to come back.

 

[recto101]

How about KDFC gets the "third FM station" in San Jose and KDFC will keep the 90.3 signal and improve it for the rest of the Bay Area. The Save KUSF craze will die off.

 

[DavidKaye]

How about KDFC gets the "third FM station" in San Jose and KDFC will keep the 90.3 signal and improve it for the rest of the Bay Area. The Save KUSF craze will die off.

They mentioned the attempt to buy a station in the southbay again a few days ago, but I can't figure out who would sell to them. KCSM would be the only likely station, and while the college district will likely sell KCSM-TV, they say that FM is doing fine and they have no intention of selling.

So, what else is there? KFJC? Unlikely. KSJS? Maybe, but they don't have much signal. KZSU? Probably not.

 

[TheBigA]

2. The Country music format will return to San Francisco

That's an interesting prediction. Country has had a tough time in SF since KSAN flipped many years ago. Before that, it did well, but benefited from KSAN's great signal. I wonder if Entercom is having second thoughts about the flip to sports. It certainly hasn't paid off yet. The current ratings are lower than they'd been with country.

This might be the topic for its own thread, but who might be willing to flip to country? CBS Has a couple of weak properties, including KITS. It might work on a strong AM. CC doesn't really have a frequency available. Maybe the new Citadel-Cumulus group will find a place for it. In any case, country music is having a strong 2nd quarter nationally, so now is a good time to get on the bandwagon.

 

[DavidKaye]

That's an interesting prediction. Country has had a tough time in SF since KSAN flipped many years ago. Before that, it did well, but benefited from KSAN's great signal. I wonder if Entercom is having second thoughts about the flip to sports. It certainly hasn't paid off yet. The current ratings are lower than they'd been with country.

Country is a very ho-hum format for the Bay Area. Western music, on the other hand, enjoyed decades of faithful listening on KSAY and KEEN in the Bay Area, and KTRB in Modesto. Nobody is touching Western, and they should. Combine that with some honky-tonk and some Bakersfield Sound, and you've got a format!

 

[TheBigA]

Combine that with some honky-tonk and some Bakersfield Sound, and you've got a format!

Can it get ratings? Can it attract advertisers?

 

[DavidKaye]

Combine that with some honky-tonk and some Bakersfield Sound, and you've got a format!

Can it get ratings? Can it attract advertisers?

You don't know until you try. This music hasn't been tried in the Bay Area since KEEN dropped it 20 years ago. And yet it's popular with concert goers. One band that tours frequently to sold-out houses is the Hot Club of Cowtown, based in Austin I think. They had a huge show at the Bottom of the Hill in SF.

Is it a risk to try this? Yes, but it's no more a risk than all the little format tweaks that have been tried. This is something entirely new, or new to a generation of listeners. Aside from Western, Honky-tonk, and Bakersfield, this could also be combined with rockabilly. The people who used to throw the Speedy's Wig City rockabilly parties became so successful that they opened a bar, the Knockout.

Some links:
Hot Club of Cowtown: http://hotclubofcowtown.com/
The Lucky Stars: http://www.theluckystars.com/
Carry Lee: http://www.allmusic.com/artist/cari-lee-the-saddle-ites-p542370

And in more of a psychobilly direction...
The Phenomenauts: http://www.silversprocket.net/progress/discography-and-mp3s/

I just realized that there probably aren't many music programmers who have any idea about any of this stuff. Maybe I should offer my services...

 

[TheBigA]

This music hasn't been tried in the Bay Area since KEEN dropped it 20 years ago. And yet it's popular with concert goers.

I don't have to tell you how often contemporary country artists have sold out SF venues without any radio support. Kenny Chesney played a stadium there recently, didn't he? Jason Aldean is playing Shoreline this week with no SF radio support. Just because an artist can fill a 500 seat club doesn't mean he can attract a 2 share on the radio.

The Bakersfield Sound, such as it was, can't attract a radio audience in Bakersfield itself today, on a station owned by the family of the late Buck Owens. This is fringe music of a fringe genre of another fringe genre. It's not that it hasn't been tried. Big and powerful supporters of this music have tried and tried and tried, only to lose their shirts.

 

[sfradio]

This music hasn't been tried in the Bay Area since KEEN dropped it 20 years ago. And yet it's popular with concert goers.

I don't have to tell you how often contemporary country artists have sold out SF venues without any radio support. Kenny Chesney played a stadium there recently, didn't he? Jason Aldean is playing Shoreline this week with no SF radio support. Just because an artist can fill a 500 seat club doesn't mean he can attract a 2 share on the radio.

The Bakersfield Sound, such as it was, can't attract a radio audience in Bakersfield itself today, on a station owned by the family of the late Buck Owens. This is fringe music of a fringe genre of another fringe genre. It's not that it hasn't been tried. Big and powerful supporters of this music have tried and tried and tried, only to lose their shirts.

There is still KRTY in the south bay and Froggy 92.9 in the north bay, so there is still radio support

 

[DaveBayArea]

Wow. The Phenomenauts are great. But I have to agree with Big A that the format would be an uphill battle. The western heritage of the Bay Area doesn't mean anything to today's radio audience, and it's not like we haven't had our attempt at an alt-country sound in the past. I'm thinking of Sully Roddy's "all kinds of country" show on the KSAN of old, as well as the recent KPIG attempt on AM.

For those in the South Bay there's a show on Sunday nights from 9 to midnight on KKUP - the Cupertino Barndance. Some say it's the longest-running show on Bay Area radio, and that may be true, I don't know. But it features what you speak of. Honky tonk, western swing, rockabilly, bakersfield sound, etc. It's quite popular and garners a lot of listener support. But it has a heritage of over 35 years. Whether an upstart with that format could do the same thing, I'm not sure.

On the other side of the coin, I witnessed an interesting phenomenon at this year's High Sierra Music Festival. They have these things they call "playshops" - like the workshops at other festivals, except they renamed them because all the artists really do is play music There was one there with Nikki Bloom, members of ALO, and a few others. They did this thing called "brokedown in bakersfield" with covers of Loretta Lynn, Gram Parsons, Buck Owens, George Jones, etc. Nobody really knew what to expect, but by about 20 minutes in the place was packed with 20-somethings who were digging it. Granted, the High Sierra crowd is a bunch of serious music lovers, but still...

Back to the original side-topic Country seems like a format that one of the Coast Radio stations could try - either KKIQ or KKDV. From what I remember, The Wolf was strongest in Contra Costa county.

Dave B.

 

[TheBigA]

For those in the South Bay there's a show on Sunday nights from 9 to midnight on KKUP - the Cupertino Barndance.

That's wonderful! The perfect place for a fringe show is 9PM Sunday night on a small community radio station. If it's not big enough for them to run in morning drive, it's probably not going to garner much support on a downtown SF signal. All of this stuff you're talking about is what non-commercial radio was built for.

But that's not what I'm talking about. As I said, CBS and Entercom have some underperforming commercial frequencies in the area, and I'd suggest they're ripe for commercial country music done the way KSAN once did it.

 

[LKellerIII]

For those in the South Bay there's a show on Sunday nights from 9 to midnight on KKUP - the Cupertino Barndance.

But that's not what I'm talking about. As I said, CBS and Entercom have some underperforming commercial frequencies in the area, and I'd suggest they're ripe for commercial country music done the way KSAN once did it.

You do realize that CBS tried this, don't you? When they bought 93.3 in the early 90s, they dropped the KYA oldies format (which competed with their own KFRC), and installed Young Country KYCY. The format hung around for a few years, but unlike KSAN, I don't think KYCY ever pulled any significant ratings.

Then Bonneville tried The Bear (95.7) in the late 90s, but it didn't do much either. The Wolf (also 95.7) was the only Bay Area country station in the last 25 years to garner any decent ratings, and it seemed like it didn't last long.

BTW - A few years ago, I enjoyed The Wolf's HD2 format, which was Classic Country, featuring everything from Gene Autry and Bob Wills songs of the 1940s through the big 80s and 90s country hits. Not too much Buck Owens or Bakersfield sound, but a little snuck in there.

 

[TheBigA]

You do realize that CBS tried this, don't you?

Yes I do.

KSAN was a huge ratings powerhouse when it was owned by Malrite and Shamrock. Somehow, they managed to get big numbers with country in San Francisco. Then again, they got good ratings with country in LA too. The problem isn't the format.

 

[recto101]

Wow. The Phenomenauts are great. But I have to agree with Big A that the format would be an uphill battle. The western heritage of the Bay Area doesn't mean anything to today's radio audience, and it's not like we haven't had our attempt at an alt-country sound in the past. I'm thinking of Sully Roddy's "all kinds of country" show on the KSAN of old, as well as the recent KPIG attempt on AM.

For those in the South Bay there's a show on Sunday nights from 9 to midnight on KKUP - the Cupertino Barndance. Some say it's the longest-running show on Bay Area radio, and that may be true, I don't know. But it features what you speak of. Honky tonk, western swing, rockabilly, bakersfield sound, etc. It's quite popular and garners a lot of listener support. But it has a heritage of over 35 years. Whether an upstart with that format could do the same thing, I'm not sure.

On the other side of the coin, I witnessed an interesting phenomenon at this year's High Sierra Music Festival. They have these things they call "playshops" - like the workshops at other festivals, except they renamed them because all the artists really do is play music There was one there with Nikki Bloom, members of ALO, and a few others. They did this thing called "brokedown in bakersfield" with covers of Loretta Lynn, Gram Parsons, Buck Owens, George Jones, etc. Nobody really knew what to expect, but by about 20 minutes in the place was packed with 20-somethings who were digging it. Granted, the High Sierra crowd is a bunch of serious music lovers, but still...

Back to the original side-topic Country seems like a format that one of the Coast Radio stations could try - either KKIQ or KKDV. From what I remember, The Wolf was strongest in Contra Costa county.

Dave B.

I doubt that 92.1 or 101.7 would want to flip to Country. remember when KKIS flipped from AC in the 1990's to Alternative KSJO simulcast and it didn't work as well so they had KABL on 92.1 before KUIC Inc took over the 92.1 spot and re-instated with the AC format and Redo the KKIS format on 92.1.

 

[1069_KIFR]

For those in the South Bay there's a show on Sunday nights from 9 to midnight on KKUP - the Cupertino Barndance.

But that's not what I'm talking about. As I said, CBS and Entercom have some underperforming commercial frequencies in the area, and I'd suggest they're ripe for commercial country music done the way KSAN once did it.

You do realize that CBS tried this, don't you? When they bought 93.3 in the early 90s, they dropped the KYA oldies format (which competed with their own KFRC), and installed Young Country KYCY. The format hung around for a few years, but unlike KSAN, I don't think KYCY ever pulled any significant ratings.

Then Bonneville tried The Bear (95.7) in the late 90s, but it didn't do much either. The Wolf (also 95.7) was the only Bay Area country station in the last 25 years to garner any decent ratings, and it seemed like it didn't last long.

BTW - A few years ago, I enjoyed The Wolf's HD2 format, which was Classic Country, featuring everything from Gene Autry and Bob Wills songs of the 1940s through the big 80s and 90s country hits. Not too much Buck Owens or Bakersfield sound, but a little snuck in there.

I remember it as Bedford Broadcasting having Oldies on "FM 99.7 KFRC FM" and King Broadcasting owning Oldies KSFO/KYA. Then when King Broadcasting sold KSFO/KYA John Hayes' Company bought KYA, changed it to KYCY Young Country 93.3. His Company also had Young Country stations in Dallas, Seattle and Detroit. Then his company sold the stations.

 

[1069_KIFR]

It was Alliance Broadcasting that started the Young Country format in Dallas (KYCD), Seattle (KYCW) and Detroit (WYCD) San Francisco (KYCY)