Beware the Trend

[djdan]

Winners and losers in the trend (this is meaningless by the way)

Winners: KMTT,WOLF, JACK, KCMS, KTTH. All clearly up over a point in the month of October from September in key demos
Losers: KMPS, KWJZ, KRWM, KOMO, MOVIN. All down over a point from the month of August to September in key demos

Winners this year on a four book:
25-54 women: KRWM, KCMS, KMPS, and KPLZ
25-54 men: KZOK, KISW, KMPS, and KJR-FM
25-54 adults: KZOK, KMPS, KCMS and KMTT

Losers this year on a four book:
JACK, KBKS, KLSY, KIRO and KNDD. All stations have shown substantial losses over Fall of 2005.

Most improved station of the year: KCMS

Beware the trends.

 

[mammaknowsbest]

Do you ever stop repeating yourself? You really think that at the end of 2007 the same stations will be on top in the same demos. WRONG. Get with the times Dan. MOVIN was down about a point from September, but I thought you said it was the four-book that matters??? Cat got your tongue now. Are you really telling me that KPLZ can come back again after this bad trend??? KLSY showed subtantial losses over last year??? Dan they are gone. I guess that is a pretty substantial loss.

I'll give you this, you make for funny reading. A bit dull, but good fiction. Like listening to a history professor that can't see the future.

I do agree that KBKS, KIRO and KNDD are over. You can add almost every AM station in town to that list too, despite KTTH's giant trend.

 

[AQH]

Do you ever stop repeating yourself? You really think that at the end of 2007 the same stations will be on top in the same demos. WRONG. Get with the times Dan. MOVIN was down about a point from September, but I thought you said it was the four-book that matters??? Cat got your tongue now. Are you really telling me that KPLZ can come back again after this bad trend??? KLSY showed subtantial losses over last year??? Dan they are gone. I guess that is a pretty substantial loss.

I'll give you this, you make for funny reading. A bit dull, but good fiction. Like listening to a history professor that can't see the future.

Has anyone ever mentioned that you're more entertaining than a drunk salesperson at a Christmas party?

 

[redbullfan]

DJ Dan...you can't see the obvious changes in Seattle radio now! The four book doesn't matter in radio...as year in radio is eternity just like Poltitics..a lot can change. KPLZ is done! Fried, baked or grilled? Choose!

DJ Dan...KMPS may not be over but they are sweating big time...again the 4 book average doesn't matter. KMPS is still a good buy, but so is the Wolf!

Movin is here to stay...down trend...the Wolf had a bad trend too...hmmmm

 

[djdan]

Redbullfan from Dallas. If I had a dollar for every time someone on this board pronounced KPLZ dead, KZOK dead, KMPS dead, Bob Rivers dead, Kent and Alan dead and Ichabod dead: I would be a very rich man. Seattle likes familiarity. Many, like myself, grew up with KZOK, KMPS and KPLZ. These FM stations bill well and are consistently attacked, yet always come back and always remain in the top 10 in billing, usually the top five. KMPS was declared dead when KRPM attacked, Young Country attacked and WOLF attacked. In each case they won. KPLZ was pronounced dead when The Beat attacked, KLSY attacked, The Point attacked, JACK attacked and in each case they bounced back. MOVIN is the latest in a long line of 25-44 stations trying to knock off an established brand. KZOK has been attacked by KXRX, KISW, KROCK, KJR-FM and even JACK. Never lost a beat.

The point is that Seattle radio is much like radio in other major markets. There are some established brand that keep on rolling, they may get knocked down when a new competitor comes on, but roll right back. Dallas probably has a station or two like that. These stations only fall apart, when they kill themselves. An established morning show leaves or a format is adjusted. That is what is a bit worrisome about KMTT. Both things happened just a couple of bad books. Turns out if they had stayed true to their music and staff they might have been just fine. In my view, as a media buyer, is that radio stations react too quickly and want easy results. Winning stations have heritage, market loyality and trust. That takes time to build. Niche formats like JACK, MOVIN, 80's have none of those qualities. WOLF may be able to do that, provided they don't flinch and keep the marketing dollars flowing.

 

[talkerdjdude]

DJ agree with you on most things, however while it's true Seattle audiences like "familiarity" they don't like "stale" and some of the stations have shows that aren't doing a good job of reinventing themselves. Rivers does keep changing it up, Ichabod does not and I think that's why the Wolf has made some gains on him.

I don't think Ichabod and KMPS are done for, but I do think they need to wake up and stop pretending the Wolf will go away and make their lives easier. They bought Young Country and made them go away, don't think they can buy off the Wolf and both will be around in a see-saw kind of ratings situation for the next couple of years.

 

[djdan]

My monthly two day visit to radio-info after a trend is just about over. It always treats me to a good laugh as other media buyers look over my shoulder at the posts. I am sure PD's in Seattle get the same chuckle.

It always comes down to defending Ichabod, Bob Rivers and Kent and Alan, who just one book ago were 1,2,3 in the market and now are over based on a trend.

Has the WOLF terrorized Ichabod. October was the first time ever that the WOLF tied Ichabod 25-54. TIED. Ichabod is the current number one 25-54 on a Eight book, four book, two book. You name it. His worst trend of the year, the October trend, still puts him in fourth place. Last trend he doubled WOLF's morning show, the August trend he tripled the WOLF morning show. Yes you may feel the show is lame, doesn't reinvent itself. To be honest I don't listen to Ichabod, and only occasionally to Rivers and Kent and Alan. But these shows know their audience and deliver. One trend or even a couple of books won't put them away. They just keep coming back. Did I mention they were 1,2,3 in June. Until next Seattle trend when I can't wait to see who is buried and who will have to flip formats. It's been fun, now I got to go to LA to sell radio. KISS had a bad trend, maybe time to get rid of Ryan Seacrest.

 

[mammaknowsbest]

These three shows are part of the old boys culture of radio. Their time is coming as women take over the business. KPLZ, KZOK and KMPS are old and are designed to cater strickly to advertisers. They play more commercials than any other stations on the FM dial in blatant disregard for their listeners. They target into core advertiser friendly demos (especially KPLZ, KZOK, KMTT which rarely break top ten in total 12+ listeners) rather than try to appeal to a wider audience. They are old boys driven by the almighty dollar and nothing more.

MOVIN, WOLF and JACK strive for more. Build a new audience that goes beyond the advertiser core. Hire talent that is new or use a produced sound to create loyalty. Which would you rather work for: a station focused on serving advertisers demo or a station dedicated to improving radio and serving listeners? The PD's of KPLZ, KRWM, that insufferable bigoted KCMS, and KZOK should be ashamed of pandering to advertiser dollars by targeting only advertiser rich demos. Think of listeners for a change!

 

[talkerdjdude]

DJ it's cute that you defend Ichabod.

His show is strong because he's on a heritage station and the station overall is solid. If he was as tried and true as you believe him to be, then why did the station continue to do well in the morning without him when he left for a few years in the 90s and a couple of other guys took over without missing a beat. The month that Ichabod's show has been the strongest this year was the month he was gone on vacation. I don't dispute the guy has an incredible amount of ability and skill, but I think he's on the verge of losing the younger audience to the Wolf completely if he doesn't makeover that show.

I think the Wolf deserves a little more credit than you can muster with your four-book average speech. Look at where they were a year ago, and look at them today.