Black Friday for HD Radio

[wgliradio]

http://www.hear2.com/2008/03/this-weeks-desp.html

This week's Convergence conference in San Jose was a terrific gathering of broadcasters and their partners who feel radio's best days might very well lay ahead. No sticks in the mud, these. Rather, folks with brains and vision and a plan, or at least the hopes of developing one.

This was no place for spin doctors and conventional wisdom. So I was not surprised when Kurt Hanson spoke on radio's future with an emphasis on radio's inevitable future on the Internet.

[EDIT]
================================

http://www.radioink.com/HeadlineEntry.asp?hid=141385&pt=todaysnews

SAN JOSE -- March 11, 2008: Radio Ink held its last Internet Conference back in 2001, and AccuRadio CEO and Radio And Internet Newsletter Publisher Kurt Hanson began his presentation before Tuesday's "A Slap in the Face: Wake Up!" session at Radio Ink's Convergence conference by noting that "What was speculative when we were at the last conference, in 2001, is not speculative anymore."

[EDIT]
============

Summary: As I have said, internet provides unlimited opportunity to take brands made popular on terrestrial radio and move them onto the net.

HD Radio should end now on AM.

For FM, for broadcasters, the digital sidebands could become data transmissions to help build. Imagine leasing out the bandwidth to the likes of Sprint/AT&T/T-Mobile to help carry these new networks . The HD receiver would just hunt and jump to the strongest signal. This could be huge for broadcasters if they get their heads out of the ground. FM radio covers better than 95% of the lower 48. Dropouts would probably be non-existant.

As for HD as an audio only medium? DOA. Sorry. :-\


[EDIT-post truncated because originating material is copyrighted.]

 

[vsa]

wgliradio, thank you for posting the two links:

http://www.hear2.com/2008/03/this-weeks-desp.html

http://www.radioink.com/HeadlineEntry.asp?hid=141385&pt=todaysnews

Mark Ramsey is a very sharp guy. So is Kurt Hanson who was an early proponent of Internet radio. Here's Hanson's 5 piece article from 5 years ago on "The Future of Radio" if you've never read it.

http://www.kurthanson.com/archive/news/033103/index.shtml

Yes, radio is having a renaissance, if you total up the listening on all platforms. And yes, most broadcasters know HD radio is a joke. Like many here, I come by strictly to drive a few more nails into an HD radio coffin that's already more nails than coffin. 

We are NOT in the tower, transmitter and bean counting business. It's about time we take on the future where the listeners are going, not where some stick owners WISH they were going. We are in "show business" aka the "content business."

 

[Carmine5]

HD Radio should end now on AM.

For FM, for broadcasters, the digital sidebands could become data transmissions to help build. Imagine leasing out the bandwidth to the likes of Sprint/AT&T/T-Mobile to help carry these new networks . The HD receiver would just hunt and jump to the strongest signal. This could be huge for broadcasters if they get their heads out of the ground. FM radio covers better than 95% of the lower 48. Dropouts would probably be non-existant.

As for HD as an audio only medium? DOA. Sorry. :-\

Reading up on the conditional access component of HD Radio it, apparently, is set up for two-way communication, sending back number keys and other information on listener habits. Of course, we're talking future HD Radios not current ones (if there is a future for it).

But it shows that had iBiquity and its earlier incarnations been forward thinking instead of just offering "more of the same but in digital" to broadcasters, HD Radio could have been the basis for a sophisticated and potentially lucrative communication system.

Now that future belongs to Wi-Max and smart phones.

C5

 

[LinoNYC]

Yes, radio is having a renaissance, if you total up the listening on all platforms. And yes, most broadcasters know HD radio is a joke. Like many here, I come by strictly to drive a few more nails into an HD radio coffin that's already more nails than coffin.

We are NOT in the tower, transmitter and bean counting business. It's about time we take on the future where the listeners are going, not where some stick owners WISH they were going. We are in "show business" aka the "content business."

..In other words, you come here trying to boost a frustrated ego by attempting to appear prescient.

Let's talk about tv for a second, exactly 30 years ago a friend who worked at NBC saw the emergence of cable as spelling d-o-o-m for the net's. Didn't happen, they still dominate and before you state that "the internet will be the distribution mode of the future" -ask yourself with the trend toward hd and large screen tv, why would a crappy I-phone (or similar) display supplant that.

TV and Radio will and do use the internet but the homebase will still be broadcast.

Lino

 

[KB1OKL]

Lino your optimism knows no bounds and apparently also has no acquaintance with reality. ;D

 

[vsa]

Yes, radio is having a renaissance, if you total up the listening on all platforms. And yes, most broadcasters know HD radio is a joke. Like many here, I come by strictly to drive a few more nails into an HD radio coffin that's already more nails than coffin. 

We are NOT in the tower, transmitter and bean counting business. It's about time we take on the future where the listeners are going, not where some stick owners WISH they were going. We are in "show business" aka the "content business."

..In other words, you come here trying to boost a frustrated ego by attempting to appear prescient.

Frustrated ego?  Is that all you can offer, Lino? An insult?

I have no need to feel frustrated professionally or otherwise. I'm one of a dwindling number of terrestrial radio survivors. As for being prescient, seeing the coming of Internet radio has been easy. But first, one must be willing to put ego and wishful thinking aside to see things as they really are. I'll be happy to admit that I have learned alot over the years from Kurt Hanson, Mark Ramsey and many others.

Let's talk about tv for a second, exactly 30 years ago a friend who worked at NBC saw the emergence of cable as spelling d-o-o-m for the net's.  Didn't happen, they still dominate and before you state that "the internet will be the distribution mode of the future" -ask yourself with the trend toward hd and large screen tv, why would a crappy I-phone (or similar) display supplant that.

TV and Radio will and do use the internet but the homebase will still be broadcast.

Lino

Have you noticed how those HD TV screens and wide-screen computer monitors are blending into one? IPTV will continue to grow as broadband speeds improve. Verizon's FIOS can already do up to 15 Mbps or even 20 Mbps in some areas. I don't follow IPTV closely, but here are a few sites that may give us a glimpse into the future:

http://www.hulu.com/

http://www.joost.com/

http://television.aol.com/in2tv

http://dynamic.abc.go.com/streaming/landing

http://www.cbs.com/innertube/

http://wwitv.com/

Let's see what happens over the next few years. The WGA just concluded a strike that lasted a little over 3 months over Internet money. Film and television writers certainly are taking television and movies delivered via the Internet very seriously. They're in a pretty good position to know where the future will be.

 

[LinoNYC]

Let me remind you of this comment:

" I come by strictly to drive a few more nails into an HD radio coffin that's already more nails than coffin."

-Hardly signals someone making a contribution to the discussion. Why bother?

"As for being prescient, seeing the coming of Internet radio has been easy. But first, one must be willing to put ego and wishful thinking aside to see things as they really are."

There is no doubt that internet "radio" and other tech will have an effect on radio as we know it.

But, take a good look at the reality of ten-of-thousands of "stations" competing for an audience over the entire globe. The only ones that will be econically able to offer anything more than the automated fare such as Live 365 etc will be actual stations with a stable, local and saleable audience. Streaming will be a major boon to those who can rise above the mass offerings, and local radio is best situated to do this, but it will never equall the economy and convenience of ota radio..

SAtellite? If they can't sustain their current churn rate they are gone within 6-8 years, merger or not, that's as far as they can stretch it. Maybe they'll find another use for the platform.

"IPTV will continue to grow as broadband speeds improve. Verizon's FIOS can already do up to 15 Mbps or even 20 Mbps in some areas."

But that model is not applicable to radio, it's just an alternative to traditional cable with some wider scope that "may" become available in the future.

Remember this clip from this year's Oscars?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reE0n1_NNf0

Jon Stewart's making fun of watching Lawrence Of Arabia on a crappy little screen.

"Let's see what happens over the next few years. The WGA just concluded a strike that lasted a little over 3 months over Internet money. Film and television writers certainly are taking television and movies delivered via the Internet very seriously. They're in a pretty good position to know where the future will be."

Writers and producers have to take the net seriously, just like radio, television is losing time spent viewing to custom media and no one wants to be in the predicament that the music industry finds itself in.

We already have cable and sat tv that offer hundreds of channels (to those willing to pay) the nets still dominate. Every few years a survey is conducted and it allways reveals that the average person finds 3-5 channels as favorites and watches little else.

In my own sideline of operating jukeboxes, the fad of the last 6 years has been machines connected to the internet, The fad is cooling-off alittle now as money gets tighter and to tell the truth, the machines are a bit deceptive. All the viable tracks are resident on the unit's hard drive.

The machines do illustrate a point that others have long made: "too much choice". I have repeatedly seen folks stand in front of one of these units, drill down through the various categories-artists-titles and either glaze-over or end up playing "Hotel California". The only reason these machines made more money (sometimes) than a standard CD unit was higher and premium unit pricing FWIW: A 200 selection vinyl juke could easily satisfy any location's tastes, everything else is marketing.

BTW: Thanks for the links, quite interesting.

Lino

 

[vsa]

Let me remind you of this comment:

" I come by strictly to drive a few more nails into an HD radio coffin that's already more nails than coffin."

-Hardly signals someone making a contribution to the discussion.  Why bother?

I bother because HD radio has been a diversion of time and resources that may turn out to be fatal for some companies.

...take a good look at the reality of ten-of-thousands of "stations" competing for an audience over the entire globe.  The only ones that will be econically able to offer anything more than the automated fare such as Live 365 etc will be actual stations with a stable, local and saleable audience. Streaming will be a major boon to those who can rise above the mass offerings, and local radio is best situated to do this, but it will never equall the economy and convenience  of ota radio..

SAtellite? If they can't sustain their current churn rate they are gone within 6-8 years, merger or not, that's as far as they can stretch it. Maybe they'll find another use for the platform.

The Internet stations that will thrive will be those who can superserve their chosen target. Since it takes time for the audience to find you, it's getting late in the game if you want to be the dominant brand in your chosen space.

As for satellite? I agree with you.

Every few years a survey is conducted and it allways reveals that the average person finds 3-5 channels as favorites and watches little else.

But those 3 to 5 channels are not always the same ones per viewer.

[/quote]