Bob Neil harshly critiques PPMs

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Check out Tom Taylor's Radio-info column today. Cox Radio's Bob Neil harshly critiques PPM sampling in Houston and Philly and Arbitron's efforts to educate the ad community about it.

Here's a sampling:

“Arbitron has massive problems with PPM samples in Philadelphia and Houston.”
Cox Radio’s Bob Neil has shot-gun blasts for Arbitron, going on record with the stuff he’s been saying in private – and this time he uses the very public forum of his own 2Q conference call. I’ll let Bob speak for himself: “We continue to believe the PPM has challenges, and we’re working pretty diligently in trying to point those out.” But he was just warming up with that, and later says “There are some sampling issues with Hispanics and African-Americans” and he charges that Arbitron’s already running into serious problems keeping its panel stable. And that “some of their excuses are contradictory” and don’t hold up, as far as Bob’s concerned. Like the one about Summer causing drops in the numbers. Neil says “The declines started two months before Summer started.

The Arbitron pledge to educate the ad-buyers “turned out to be a load of dog manure.”
I’m told that at least one transcript of yesterday’s “CXR” conference call doesn’t contain that pungent phrase, but I heard it live, and then went back and checked the recording, at the point where Bob Neil responds to Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes. When Cox put its John Hancock on the new Arbitron PPM/diary contract, it put Arbitron on notice that it would be a demanding customer – and now Bob Neil says “be careful what you wish for” – speaking directly to Arbitron. He says Arbitron’s repeated promises to inform the ad community about the “one time adjustment” in Cost Per Point “turned out to be a load of dog manure…it’s just not true.”

 

[Herb Tarleck]

Hi Rodney. Actually, I know people over there in their agency division and they have been doing it. The problem is that they can't make an agency adjust anything--they can only suggest. They have as much power over the media planners/buyers as you or I do.

 

[InTIMadate]

I'm not a Bob Neil fan, but he's right on this.

People are leaving their PPM "beeper" on the charger when they get up, take a shower, have breakfast and walk the dog. They're not recording any radio ratings until they grab the ulgy black pager for the trip to work. Houston and Philly AM shows are getting killed. Agencies are using these so-called ratings to kick the snot out of rates. Sales weasels are dropping their pants to get the buy. It's getting very ugly.

The PPM is a failure.

Wait for the smart phone.

Radio Leaders..... Please wake up and smell the dog manure!

 

[RoddyFreeman]

People are leaving their PPM "beeper" on the charger when they get up, take a shower, have breakfast and walk the dog.

That's an interesting point. I wonder what percent of the clock radios in the morning are being missed by the PPM.

 

[grmf]

That's an interesting point. I wonder what percent of the clock radios in the morning are being missed by the PPM.

That's a really good point. I turn the clock radio on when I get up, listen to one in the shower when I'm getting ready. My wife is the same way. That's 2 solid hours of radio listening that could easily get missed.

 

[littlejohn]

And, no one from Arbitron has yet been able to explain to me why I can't clip the PPM to the dog's collar and leave the radio on... and get credit.
And, all it takes is someone to point out, "The Man be trackin' you" or "La Migra will know how to find you" and you will have the same problem with black and hispanic audiences underreporting that you have now. In fact, the tests seem to support this underreporting.
The CC folks are correct - put the thing in a celphone.
I already set the stations at the Radio Shack and Target/Best Buys/wherever to mine when I look at the display radios (A trick I learned from Bob Neil). Wonder if I could get the manager to run my Secret Station Inaudible Code on his PA system. Or the Kroger manager. Or the mall manager.
So we quit contesting at 7:41 on Thursdays and instead invoke new strategies to capture the new technology of ratings. So what else is new?

 

[InTIMadate]

So Mr. Littlejohn,

Question: Is it true that the PPM sub signal only transmits every 30 seconds?

If that's true, why not make it every 10 seconds and give your stations three times the shot at being picked up by a passing PPM?

This and many other tricks and treats are waiting for those that ask the right questions.......

 

[grmf]

Nothing is going to be perfect. Cell phones would probably be better than the people meter.

 

[littlejohn]

I don't know what the sequence or repetition rate is. Nor that it will or won't stay fixed. Given the boxes, it will be fairly easy to find out. As to changing them, that would almost certainly be a great way to be delisted. And I expect at the outset at least, Arbitron will be monitoring stations for just that sort iof tampering. I expect there will be much moore interest in monitoring to make sure the information is being broadcast. Consider - in a diary environment, the programmers' major concern is, it's on the air. Now, if the encoded stuff isn't being sent, you're OFF THE AIR as far as the rating system is concerned. So, if you're Clear Channel, you got six stations in a market, each has HD-1 and HD-2, that's 18 frickin' monitors. Gonna be fun and games, no?

 

[taylorengineer]

Interesting thought Littlejohn....what are the pirating potentials?
Gotta admit I'm not up to speed on the workings of PPM. I do wonder if there will be ways of "forcing" your station into PPMs in public areas.

 

[littlejohn]

I can think of a handful... buit the easiest is to just play the station in the public area. Or supply a feed from the encoder before it mixes the audio to the PA in the pbulic place. And a couple more, but they're my ideas to try out first.

 

[InTIMadate]

Your missing the point!

Now the sample is much smaller than the diaries and each household will keep them for up to two years. It would be easy to start a company that provides FREE custom skins for PPMs carriers and market them online. Once you have the addresses, sell the contact info to marketing directors and PDs for a chunk of their budget. Then, open kiosks at local malls and festivals with a team of nerds that inspect the crowds for the PPM. Just offer to babysit their units while they shop or visit and capture their names. What station wouldn't pay you to have them stored in a box on the back of a bike with a radio tuned to their station for the afternoon? Actually, I kind of like the dog idea too!

I can see the big picture now:

"Why carry that ugly PPM everywhere you go? Email us. We'll babysit it for you so you can get money without being embarassed in public!"

This system is soooooooooooooooooooo flawed! It's not about listening. It's about beating Arbitron. Those that figure it out first will win. Those that don't will become obsolete, again.

 

[taylorengineer]

Do we really want an accurate way of determining listening? REALLY??
This is analogous to asking for "fair" elections.....do we really want to know what the public truly desires?
The current diary method has it certain charms....and we have grown accustomed to the rules. The whole ritual of "explaining" the numbers vs diary placement.....drinking Bourbon and waters with the GM and GSM until that fuzzy math started to soak in....it's going to be a whole new set of rules to play/pray by.
And then you have yer rocket scientist engineers like Littlejohn who are gonna cheat....just wait and see...the Big White Dog is gonna be wearin' a PPM just as sure as Jesus saves....
I, for one, would like to simply maintain status quo, at least until my retirement/insanity/death.
"Ignorance is bliss." Ignorance is good for individuals,radio, and society in general....it should be embraced!

 

[tcsnrayp]

Your missing the point!

And you're (a contraction for YOU ARE) missing your English class.

 

[littlejohn]

I would never cheat... I'm so paranoid I don't even take online surveys. And it's so hot all the BWDs want to do is flop on the airconditioner outlet.
In all seriousness though, it'a pretty much always been about the Arbitron. No one gives much of a dam' about anybody in town save the three thousand or so souls who happen to have diaries. Everybody is all about them though.
I'm looking forward to seeing what the new strategies will be to attempt to attract the howevermany who happen to be wearing PPMs. The times, they are a - changin'.

 

[makemineblatz]

For a guy who has singlehandedly ruined a lot of once great stations, he was dead on about the PPM. Arbitron is in deep fertilizer and they don't have a clue about how to fix it. And to think, time buyers still use these archaic "estimates" as the basis for time buys. When are major corporations, who are heavy radio advertisers, going to call agencies on the carpet for using Arbitron numbers. They're about as useless as RADAR to which stations report what network programs (spots) aired. Most operators just check 'em off figuring "who cares".

 

[littlejohn]

Geez, he owned Syracuse, and once here got Y to an 8 share 12+ (Look it up). And, I suspect Cox is taking in more loot than anybody else in town. You got a passing fair strange definition of 'ruin'.

 

[jbaxter]

Geez, he owned Syracuse, and once here got Y to an 8 share 12+ (Look it up).

Syracuse? Y? Talk about ancient history, Reagan was still President. A more accurate measure would be CXR stock which just hit a five year low.

 

[taylorengineer]

Most of us agree that Bob Neil is right on with his recent comments concerning PPM and artist royalties. No one has ever accused Bob of being stupid.
But Bob Neil is decidely a part of the problem with radio today. Not the totality of the problem....only a part.
The problem is the attempt to program radio with research/testing and no "gut" instinct for "showbiz." Bean counters run radio today....not really entertaining people who understand the nuts and bolts of radio listening.
But it should also be pointed out that we, the public, get pretty much what we desire.....that's true for radio too. Cox and Cumulus and CC are just giving us the empty calorie radio we want and desire!