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Broadcasters Pulled A Magical Rabbit Out Of Their Hat. Part 1.

While many in this group opine on iBiquity’s technology, both positive and negative,
there is a much bigger story to HD radio, starting with Satellite radio.

Broadcasters didn’t launch Iboc because they knew digital technology was the future of radio, it started with satellite broadcasters doing what some said couldn’t be done. Sat radio, convinced listeners to pay a monthly fee for radio. For the first time in history, terrestrial radio’s users, broadcasters listeners, were coughing up $12.99 a month to hear the naughty ramblings of Howard Stern, opinions of Larry King or adult contemporary music, that’s always been a free over the air service. Think of this, roughly 18 million terrestrial radio users, broadcasters listeners, are also paying monthly services fees to XM & Sirius to hear music and talk formats. I’ve said broadcasters listeners, more than once, to illustrate the deep-seated feelings of contempt, that must be felt towards sat radio, by the arrogant kings of the air, but that’s another story.

Broadcasters will never admit this, but between you and me they had to be impressed
and envious of satellite radio’s pay to play revenue model. Industry titans were chomping at the bit, over the prospect of developing their own subscription radio model.

Enter Bob Struble, IBiquity, a compnay created by broadcasters and investors. Thus quicker than the eye can see, broadcasters pulled a magical rabbit out of their hat, called digital licensing rights and shazam, they’ve invented pay to play radio, sold as free digital radio. IBiquity charges broadcasters, annually thousands, for Iboc digital licensing rights, plus manufactures pay a one time licensing free, that passed onto consumers, for each receiver. Think of it, 235 million people weekly listen to terrestrial radio, and Americans own 7-8 radios per household. The potential numbers and profits from digital licensing and traditional advertising revenues are positively huge!

Unfortunately, gadget-loving, credit card rich Americans have been slow to upgrade their traditional analog receivers. Less informed radio users, average people, have misconceptions, believing HD and sat radio are one in the same. My marketing hat tells me, people remember whose fist in a category and don’t care who’s second, and HD is second.

Bridge Ratings estimates that Internet radio will have 180 million listeners by 2020, 250 million will still be listening to terrestrial radio, but HD will have less than 10 million.
As of 2004, IBiquity has only sold roughly 500,000 radios.

Moving forward, sooner than later, free wireless Internet access, (wimax) will become a reality, and every dashboard will be Internet enabled. Ipods or Slacker’s G2 may very well become, the pocket radio of choice for users 12-34 & 25-54.

With a world wide recession, IBiquity will continue to struggle, sales of receivers level off at much lower rates than expected, plus broadcasters now struggling to keep their main channel afloat, will be slow to adopt Iboc startups, or offer earth shattering programming content, beyond jukeboxes and simulcasted stations.

Sources:
www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/media/26adco.html?_r=2&ref=media
www.orbitcast.com/archives/slacker-g2-review-radios-future-in-your-pocket.html
www.bridgeratings.com/press_08.08.07.HDvsInternet.htm
www.hear2.com/2008/12/is-free-wireless-broadband-everywhere-only-a-year-away.html
 
pocket-radio said:
While many in this group opine on iBiquity’s technology, both positive and negative,
there is a much bigger story to HD radio, starting with Satellite radio.

Broadcasters didn’t launch Iboc because they knew digital technology was the future of radio, it started with satellite broadcasters doing what some said couldn’t be done. Sat radio, convinced listeners to pay a monthly fee for radio. For the first time in history, terrestrial radio’s users, broadcasters listeners, were coughing up $12.99 a month to hear the naughty ramblings of Howard Stern, opinions of Larry King or adult contemporary music, that’s always been a free over the air service Think of this, roughly 18 million terrestrial radio users, broadcasters listeners, are also paying monthly services fees to XM & Sirius to hear music and talk formats. I’ve said broadcasters listeners, more than once, to illustrate the deep-seated feelings of contempt, that must be felt towards sat radio, by the arrogant kings of the air, but that’s another story.

Broadcasters will never admit this, but between you and me they had to be impressed
and envious of satellite radio’s pay to play revenue model. Industry titans were chomping at the bit, over the prospect of developing their own subscription radio model.

It's no wonder it's been 11 hours without a reply on this one. Clearly posters just say "Yeah whatever" and move on. So I'll say it...

Wow. Rarely has such a far fetched, fantasy inspired, notion ever been actually penned in a forum where the conscious peruse. I mean seriously, you do know that Digital radio was on the table long before DARS, right. (Actually. I guess not.) And you would claim that Digital radio is the result of satellite jealousy? Seriously, are you in Oregon? I suspect so, because you need to lay way off the Wacky Tabaccky. Digital radio was origninally slated to go into the spectrum where satrad is now. As a broadcaster, I can categorically say I know of NO ONE "EVER" who is/was/or thought about being jealous of SatRad. Some were a little afraid of it. But after the limitations were thought through, most realized that Local TV survived despite cable - and Local radio will survive despite SatRad. It's a nationalized "Low hanging fruit" alternative at best. And frankly, It's NOT at it's best. Your premise is totally off base. But let's continue.

Enter Bob Struble, IBiquity, a compnay created by broadcasters and investors. Thus quicker than the eye can see, broadcasters pulled a magical rabbit out of their hat, called digital licensing rights and shazam, they’ve invented pay to play radio, sold as free digital radio. IBiquity charges broadcasters, annually thousands, for Iboc digital licensing rights, plus manufactures pay a one time licensing free, that passed onto consumers, for each receiver. Think of it, 235 million people weekly listen to terrestrial radio, and Americans own 7-8 radios per household. The potential numbers and profits from digital licensing and traditional advertising revenues are positively huge!

My god, you're right. Ther ARE annual license fees. And they run in the THOUSANDS of dollars. As in "2" thousand dolars a year for an HD subchannel. Nothing recurring for the main. And a cut of revenue for subchannels, IF THEY TAKE IN MONEY. Rarely has there been such a blatently whacked out statement, from anyone. It appears you are one who who totally doesn't understand the radio industry and it's business model. Your bloviating fantasy is a lot more farfetched than the hocus pocus economics were seeing in the market today.
Unfortunately, gadget-loving, credit card rich Americans have been slow to upgrade their traditional analog receivers. Less informed radio users, average people, have misconceptions, believing HD and sat radio are one in the same. My marketing hat tells me, people remember whose fist in a category and don’t care who’s second, and HD is second.
Well that marketing hat is apparently foil filled, as you missed the part about the collassal failure SatRad really is. These folks have operationally lost more maney than their original capitalization. Terrestrial has low stock price, but they are mostly at least borderline profitable. Satrad is totally upside down. Now, with an exempted unlawful merger and a major refinance due soon, in a dreadful credit market, I'm sure the remainder of terrestrial radio stations will stlll be putting "Wish I was them" on their list to Santa. NOT. :)

Bridge Ratings estimates that Internet radio will have 180 million listeners by 2020, 250 million will still be listening to terrestrial radio, but HD will have less than 10 million.
As of 2004, IBiquity has only sold roughly 500,000 radios.

So you folks have "rolled back" the "Radio will be beaten by the internet" date to after 2020 now. I'd put a smily face, but WalMart already has the trademark.

Moving forward, sooner than later, free wireless Internet access, (wimax) will become a reality, and every dashboard will be Internet enabled. Ipods or Slacker’s G2 may very well become, the pocket radio of choice for users 12-34 & 25-54.

Right. I notice you left out Pandora. Concerned we're going to quote their recent net observations? You also cite "Free Wimax". Good luck with that. Right now there is "NON-Free" wimax here. You can not hold a signal between two towers 2 miles apart. Did I mention they are 2 miles apart and sell for $49 a month? Trust me, EVDO MIGHT be an alternative. WiMAX? Stop reading the tech journals and get out in your car. NO WAY.

With a world wide recession, IBiquity will continue to struggle, sales of receivers level off at much lower rates than expected, plus broadcasters now struggling to keep their main channel afloat, will be slow to adopt Iboc startups, or offer earth shattering programming content, beyond jukeboxes and simulcasted stations.

Valid points. Meanwhile a satrad industry with actually NEGATIVE net worth goes out into the market to refi their debtload this spring. Good lick to them. I think I'll just try and sell a few spots here.



Thanks for a thought in addition to the links. I know you're not the "OLD" POCKETRADIO. But seriously... "Bridgeratings", "Orbitcast" and "Hear2.com". Come on I'm begging you. Show us the people in the orange jumpsuits. I LOVE that picture. :)

Clouseau
 
Inspector we all have different opinions.

Some posters actually challenge group think and post original content it doesn’t mean they’re 100% correct and others won’t disagree. Though I’ll admit, I feel honored and privileged to read your informed and well thought through opinions.

I agree Satellite radio is upside down and might equal space junk someday.
But let’s be real and put egos aside, sat radio put together programming, beyond jukeboxes, setup attractive store displays with actual working radios and sold receivers. Imagine that! Build it and they will come, maybe The Alliance should hire their marketing people or maybe just take a few lessons.

“Some” broadcast titans are like satellite radio, upside down, with more than their unfair share of debt. It seems the Wall Street business strategy wasn’t a sound business plan, and wasn’t good for radio either. Incase you haven’t noticed, radio stocks are worth pennies and more very talented people are being shown the door. Stocks dropping is a sign investors have lost confidence. And prior to the economy going south, radio’s revenues have been flat and trending down for years, even smaller markets are now being affected. (Sigh) I use references links and facts, forming intelligent opinions based on reality. Blinders are for horses “whinney”

Mama Cass Elliot said: “Nobody can tell ya there's only one song worth singing they may try and sell ya
cause it hangs them up to see someone like you”

The Anti Kool-Aid Crowd thanks you.
 
By the way, IBOC is a lot older than satellite radio. I heard working prototypes of several competing systems in '95 at the NAB Radio Show. It took a long, LONG time to get a system all the way through the approval process, with some (very) regrettable stops along the way (how bad an idea is it for the technology to be controlled by ONE COMPANY? Even if it's an excellent, trouble-free system, ONE COMPANY???). For someone who says things like "satellite came first, and HD radio followed" REALLY haven't been involved much in broadcasting, and have NO historical perspective!

In the early 90s we thought there would be a separate band for digital. Then the FCC said that wouldn't happen, and that any digital system would be REQUIRED to co-exist with analog in the same band. Everything that's happened since then is a result of these decisions. I think it's freaking amazing that a working (on FM anyway) system was devised which allowed digital to be shoehorned into very crowded spectrum! Yes, the AM system has BIG limitations in terms of interference, not to mention sound-quality issues brought on by the required low bitrates. But it's quite a technical accomplishment that it works at all. It's kind of like being stuffed into a phone booth with ten beautiful women, and managing to impregnate all of them. Possible? In theory, sure. But quite a feat when actually accomplished!
 
And now HD radio is being superceded by FMeXtra with equal or better performance, similar capabilities, better coverage, much simpler cheaper hardware, better coverage, is non-proprietary, and is truly In Band and On Channel.

Wow, what a country!
 
Yeah? Where EXACTLY is it "being superceded by FMExtra"? Now I'm a believer in FMExtra, and have said MANY TIMES that HD Radios should be REQUIRED to also receive FMExtra, so small stations would have an inexpensive path to digital, with radios in place to receive them. But "being superceded by FMExtra"? WHERE EXACTLY? There aren't any radios, outside of a few with very poor distribution. I have NEVER seen one (FMExtra Radio), nor have I heard a station broadcasting in FMExtra. I'm not saying this is a good thing. Again, I'm IN FAVOR of the expansion of FMExtra. But it's pretty far from "superceding" ANYTHING!
 
Mike Walker said:
In the early 90s we thought there would be a separate band for digital. Then the FCC said that wouldn't happen, and that any digital system would be REQUIRED to co-exist with analog in the same band.

I think you can thank your friends at NAB amd NPR for that. They did not want a "level playing field," so we all got screwed.
 
From reading the emails of LPFM operators (those who post through Prometheus), there seems to be a tremendous amount of interest in FMeXtra. Obviously, cost (with no ongoing fees), ease of set up and equal coverage to analog are what appeals most to them.

While the lack of available of radios is a sticking point for now, it may be that FMeXtra's true champions will come from the LPFM community.

C5
 
Chuck with due respect, it's the United States military that kept us from getting a separate digital band, because they wouldn't release the L band...the only spectrum that was under consideration. The NAB lobbied FOR L band usage, not against. I don't think NPR had a "dog in that fight", they were kind of late to the digital party, with the "Tomorrow Radio Project", which eventually resulted in multicasting. But NPR hardly has all it's eggs in the HD (or any other) basket. When it comes to distribution, they're very much "alll of the above"...HD multicast, satellite, internet, etc. ALL broadcasters should adopt such a policy, as much as budgets allow. Anyone "threatened" by new technology like web streaming, HD multicasting, etc. is already dangerously behind the curve! When a new distribution system comes along, GRAB IT, throw it down, and MAKE IT YOUR BITCH! Don't "wait and see" how it works for everyone else. By then, you've guaranteed that you will be, at best, an also-ran. The timid, the "also-rans", will get their asses kicked, and SOON!
 
It is true that the US Military was not keen on releasing L Band, but there were (and still are) other areas where digital radio could exist. Namely, 26 MHz, the old FM "Armstrong" frequencies above 30 MHz and the soon to be more-or less abandoned TV channels 5 & 6. I haven't seen NAB jumping up and down with enthusiasm for making any of those things happen. Have you?

That said, the Obama administration has announced that they will make it a priority to make free wireless Internet available to all Americans. I think that is a good idea. If you travel to other parts of the world, you will soon discover that we live in a digital third world country. It is sad but true.

Assuming the incoming administration can pull it off and provide some level of free Internet service to everyone, then it does not take a clairvoyant to see where this will lead.
 
That sounds like a VERY positive development. If the infrastructure, and bandwidth exist for internet radio to REALLY "bite into" terrestrial distribution, it could be a very good thing, and a great opportunity for stations. Of course bandwidth costs will have to be "wrestled to the ground". Most stations, even very successful ones, simply wouldn't be able to afford the costs if tomorrow morning all of their listeners decided to "tune in" on the 'net, rather than over the air.

As for "other bands", I hadn't heard anything about 26mhz for more than a couple of years. But I doubt "another band" will be set aside now that IBOC has been mandated as the "standard". Interestingly, countries that adopted an "other band" approach (Canada, for instance), are now taking a look at IBOC.
 
pocket-radio said:
Inspector we all have different opinions.

Some posters actually challenge group think and post original content it doesn’t mean they’re 100% correct and others won’t disagree. Though I’ll admit, I feel honored and privileged to read your informed and well thought through opinions.

Agreed. And don't feel honored. I'm just another bozo on a message board. :)

I agree Satellite radio is upside down and might equal space junk someday.
But let’s be real and put egos aside, sat radio put together programming, beyond jukeboxes, setup attractive store displays with actual working radios and sold receivers. Imagine that! Build it and they will come, maybe The Alliance should hire their marketing people or maybe just take a few lessons.

I don't think "Space Junk". Hopefully they'll just declare bankruptcy and go on under new ownership. They have a viable business model, IMHO. Just a few hundred percent more debt than they can carry. And you're dead on with their marketing. Most of it is pretty good. Or should I say, Just like HD radio - Only really different. :)
“Some” broadcast titans are like satellite radio, upside down, with more than their unfair share of debt. It seems the Wall Street business strategy wasn’t a sound business plan, and wasn’t good for radio either.
{/quote]
No arguement here. A lot of people looked at radio and saw a way to make a fortune. Many did, but soon they thought they had a "S" on their chest. When you think you can't make a bad deal is when you do. A few radio groups got into that trap. (Did that one myself once actually. )

Incase you haven’t noticed, radio stocks are worth pennies and more very talented people are being shown the door. Stocks dropping is a sign investors have lost confidence. And prior to the economy going south, radio’s revenues have been flat and trending down for years, even smaller markets are now being affected. (Sigh) I use references links and facts, forming intelligent opinions based on reality. Blinders are for horses “whinney”

Radio is having a hard time right now. And frankly, it MAY get worse. A LOT worse. But there will most likely always be radio. Just not with the same ownership after the current owners crater due to bad management and structure.

Mama Cass Elliot said: “Nobody can tell ya there's only one song worth singing they may try and sell ya
cause it hangs them up to see someone like you”

The Anti Kool-Aid Crowd thanks you.

I don't know that the meaning is the same, however I do know that if Mama Cass had some of that Kool-Aid, handy, she might be alive today. (Ducking)

Clouseau
 
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