Buffalo-Niagara Falls June-July-August 12+ Summer Phase 2

[Element9]

We were slow on the uptake for May-June-July Summer Phase 1 and it didn't seem anybody was really interested in discussing the issue. So now comes Summer Phase 2 and look at WBLK powering up to an 8.5, three tenths of a share behind #2 WBEN and WYRK, Buffalo's sole Country FM station, once again on top of the haystack.

What's going on at WBEN, now down to an 8.8? Are even moderate republicans beginning to turn away from the constant stream of vitriol? Sure, it's 12+ and WBEN may be comfortably ensconced on 35+ Street, but with WYRK increasing the gap between #1 and #2, it seems cause for concern if not discussion about The Voice of Buffalo.

What the heck is going on with Star, now at 4.3. At-work listening takes a hit because hundreds of moms are on vacation? Sure, 12+ doesn't reflect Star's traditional vice-grip hold on Women 25-49, but you'd expect a better 12+ showing for a station as dominant as Star. Is there a rip tide between Star-Kiss and WBLK that's causing the Star slide?

The Edge gets a nice bump... while it's main players are on vacation and S&R roll re-runs? Crazy.

The Lake... consistently mediocre and it could be that WHTT's return to Classic Hits may take a few listeners away from the Lake, which over the last three months has been sounding like a hybrid between Classic Hits and Classic Rock.

Is WGR in danger of slipping off the scale? Hockey season can't begin too soon... and it will.

WBUF-Jack and WHTT (still reflecting the mix format) going down. Looks like Citadel did the right thing pulling the plug on the Mix format. Insiders say WJYE did a market sweep about three months ago and the test results from Women regarding Mix were "I don't know what it is." Look for the Classic Hits format to change that sentiment with a strong Fall book. Think a live body will ever show up on Jack? Not with Regent's stock trading at 50 cents a share.

It's likely that WHTT's move to Classic Hits will re-define the market. The format flip will create a differentiation between Jack, which is 80s Classic Hits; WHTT, which is 60s-70s Classic Hits; Star, which is Hot AC and WJYE, which is Soft AC offering a select number of 60s hits. Will WJYE modify its music rotations, back off the 60s and add more 80s-90s Soft rock Favorites in place of the 60s songs.

97 Rock ticking up from an ugly Spring 12+ that insiders say was a fluke because Kiss scored uncharacteristically well in Men 25-54. Whuh? Well, it looks like Kiss may be returning to reality just in time for Ryan Seacrest to begin a new season of American Eye-dull.

WJYE holds at a 5.9 as we get closer to the All Christmas flip, which should begin on November 12th, the first day of the final phase of the Fall book.

 

[BUFFALOFLYGUY]

As we approach the Thanksgiving / Christmas season and see both WJYE and Star 102.5 switch to all holiday music, will WHTT-FM gain from it. Will it make a bigger impact that they returned to Classic Hits?

 

[Element9]

As we approach the Thanksgiving / Christmas season and see both WJYE and Star 102.5 switch to all holiday music, will WHTT-FM gain from it. Will it make a bigger impact that they returned to Classic Hits?

I believe the answer is "yes." But news from Citadel Corporate may overshadow any improvements within the Buffalo cluster.

Radio-Info and Inside Radio today quote The Wall Street Journal: "...Citadel is talking to lenders about the possibility of swapping debt for equity."

In other words, 'Please give us money and we'll give you an ownership stake in our dynamic enterprise.' Apparently Ted Fortsmann's well has run dry where Citadel is concerned.

The Journal also notes: "...talks 'have slowed in recent days' because of regulatory problems, since some of its big lenders may soon have ownership interests in other media, like TV and newspapers."

What they're not saying is, 'once burned, twice shy.' There's little confidence or trust in Farid Suleman and Citadel's braintrust. Some money people say Suleman is now despised on Wall Street for heavy-handedness going back to the days when he put the ABC deal together and further back to the Infinity days when Suleman was Mel Karmizan's henchman.

The Journal continues: "...That could create cross-ownership problems in particular markets for a J.P. Morgan Chase, which might soon own a piece of TV/newspaper owners Tribune and/or Freedom Communications. As attorney David Oxenford tells the Journal, nobody ever figured that 'so many deals would be in trouble' around the same time."

Duhhh. Or would that be Dohhh! Hell, the morning guy in Binghamton knew this was coming. Doesn't take a JD, MBA or PhD to figure that out.

"The paper also hears that Citadel had a $2 million interest payment due on Wednesday the 15th, and it’s not clear whether that was made or not."

Prob'ly not. This particular payment was due August 15th. Can you say "default?"

One can almost envision Farid and Judy scurrying around the home office, going through desk drawers and cabinets frantically looking for loose change to make the payment... like a coke addict (Sharon Stone in the film Casino comes to mind, except Stone was charming in most of that film... until her coke jones robbed her beauty and her life) tearing up the house looking for the rainy day stash to buy another fix. Judy stops, whips out her Crackberry and messages Farid, "I know, let's fire more staff..."

While share prices of some other broadcasting companies like CBS and Emmis have doubled over the last three months (admittedly nowhere near what they were 18 months ago), Citadel's stock remains a the pariah of Wall Street, stagnant around 6 cents a share. Six. Cents. A. Share. Citadel. Doing investors proud. Or would that be just "doing" investors.