BUFFALO WINTER PHASE 1 TRENDS

[Element9]

This may be a sign that the board isn't fixated on ratings, which isn't an altogther bad thing. But Radio & Records published the Buffalo-Niagara Falls 12+ Winter Phase 1 ratings (Nov-Dec-Jan) and there are some interesting warps.

WYRK, which rarely gets the pub on this board for being the dominant station that it is, powers up to #1. Surprisingly, WBEN rolls off to single digits. Many expected WBEN to be stronger given the elections. WBLK up substantially; diary placement or simply a good station? 97 Rock, very healthy with two months of Buffalo Bills in the trend. The AC race shows Star wobbling mildly, WJYE stepping up and Mix faltering. Active Rock 103.3 The Edge is showing growth. WGR, surprisingly underperformed, given that it's hockey season. Jack is up. The Lake up an scooch but essentially flacid. Z-101 foundering. KB dismal. The latest 12+ trend continues to reflect the Christmas Season (December) bump for Star and WJYE.

1)WYRK-FM 10.3 2)WBEN-AM 9.4 3)WGRF-FM 7.5 4)WBLK-FM 7.4 5)WJYE-FM 7.1
6)WKSE-FM 5.9 7)WTSS-FM 5.8 8)WEDG-FM 5.1 9)WHTT-FM 4.2 10)WGR-AM 4.1
11)WBUF-FM 3.8 12)WLKK-FM 2.1

 

[SirRoxalot]

Actually, this trend reflects post-election hangover more than it does the election itself. I'm not surprised that WBEN is down a little. In fact, it will be interesting to see how the next trend shapes up with the crash of Flight 3407 in the mix. Will the wall-to-wall coverage on TV actually make WBEN's coverage overkill, or will the event itself boost their numbers?

There's still a lot of Christmas programming in this trend, and it looks like WJYE won the ho-ho-ho battle. Apparently those fleeing non-stop-Jingle-Bell-Rock didn't flee to Mix. Whether their music changes toward 35-44 females were effective or not wouldn't necessarily show up in the 12+ numbers. The replacement of Jim Pastrick by V-Tammy Oakland also won't show up in this trend.

There's still quite a bit of Bills football in this trend for 97-Rock. It would be interesting to see daypart numbers, since the demise of the Slick Tom Show should have some impact on this trend.

 

[Bob1370]

It would be interesting to see the demo breakdowns beyond the 12+ numbers. WBEN's especially...the core audience that station has been carrying since 1980, when it was 25-54 prime cuts, is now 55-84 and it's possible that it's shedding under-55 news listeners in the post-election period, or perhaps spinning some of them off to pubcasters WBFO and WNED-AM in the post-election period--something the trends wouldn't reveal, since pubcasters' numbers are only published by Arbitron in the PPM markets as of now.

It's equally interesting to see a cluster of stations (WGRF, WBLK and WJYE) clumped in the low-to-mid-7s, close enough to each other that there's really no statistically significant difference among them given the margin of survey error. A diary or two here and there and the order could be very different. Same for the cluster of WKSE, WTSS and WEDG in the 5s, grouped closely enough around the 5.5 mark that there's not more than a couple of diaries' difference among them all. Makes you wonder what might have happened if a handful of diaries had wound up in different hands...would we be talking about a significantly different ranking and perhaps hundreds of thousands of ad dollars headed in different directions?

 

[heydaybegone]

Scuse me. Can I see, by a show of hands, whom amoungst this elite (and respected mind you )band of merry makers, has ever explored the "land of Diaries"? Made the trip to Beltsville (is it still in Beltsville?) and shopped through the variety of Diaries from your market they received, and viewed them. Do they still allow physical contact with the "diaries" that determine destinies at the big "A"? That's all.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

These days, one need not travel to Columbia, MD to review diaries. Arbitron offers "programmers packages" that allow managers and consultants to see, with a few mouse clicks and at some cost, exactly what Jane and Joe Diarykeeper make note of in their diaries. I suppose you COULD go if you want to. I've never been to Columbia (but I kinda like the music... to paraphrase Three Dog night.)

Years ago, I had the benefit of seeing some of this "inside baseball" by way of the station's consulting group. The analysis tracked all diaries and the comments therein about our station (WGR) and three stations (WBEN, WHTT and WGRF) that shared listening with our station.

Think a listener knows everything about your station just because you run bumpers, jingles, promos and sweepers up the wazoo? Think listeners automatically write down the name of your station because your jocks or talk show hosts lead with the call letters and execute all the correct mechanics? Surprise!

In some instances, listeners take great care to note who and what station they're listening to and what time their listening begins and ends. Most listeners aren't as conscientious, nor do they pay attention to detail. Call letters get mangled, slogans get twisted, frequencies get attributed to different call letters. Listeners are very busy people. Diaries are cumbersome.

As an experiment and an attempt to duplicate one diary user's experience, I asked an intern to track his listening for a whole week and write down his listening times and the stations he listened to. The intern was a 21 year old college graduate with a degree in Communications. For the first three days, he did his best to track listening, but around day four he threw in the towel. By day seven, his make believe diary was a mess, although I did note The Edge and Kit Missle got lots off his attention. The most attentive diary keepers are women, 25-49. 18-24 Men, not so much. Arbitron, from what I've been told, includes $5 in the initial diary placement packet and an additional $2 per diary in the packet. Don't spend it all in one place.

In another thread a few days ago, one poster noted that one of his relatives had seven people in their home, each with a diary tracking his/her listening. We can only imagine who the Alpha Listener was in that household and how those diaries, particularly for at-home listening, might have been affected.

From what I've read about PPM ratings in larger markets, accounting for listening is markedly different with PPM, although there are some similarities to the diary. I'm no expert, to be sure. Stations in PPM markets have revised their thinking when programming to PPM listeners. The entire programming template is being re-thought. There's a guy named David Eduardo who, although sometimes strident, has a good handle on PPM and just about everything else in the business. And here's an interesting analysis from Edison Research that offers a very interesting perspective on PPM. We're all still learning about this experiment we call radio.

 

[heydaybegone]

JP - thanks. You hit the point exactly, I just let you do all the keyboarding ;D There are so many faults in the system, yet it garners all the attention. I'm actually a tad shy on the Programmers Packages since by it's very implication produces a new revenue source for the ARB folks. That also is flawed as it inevitably controls what you get. From being on the sidelines all these years, I'm amazed the the old addage "as much as things change, they stay the same" still holds true. (Ok - not amazed, just bamboozled). BTW - 3DN tie in duly noted, show prep never leaves a passion filled mind.

 

[SirRoxalot]

I've long suspected that the diary system does a better job of rating a stations outside promotion than it does rating actual listening, especially when you're talking about cume and not quarter hours. I think that some people write down what they consider to be "hip" instead of what they actually listen to. Of course, many people don't listen to a lot of radio, and don't really know who or what they're hearing when they do.

One advantage that Nielsel TV ratings have is that Nielsen families are monitored for extended periods of time. Eventually, anybody will ignore the monitor and revert to their normal viewing patterns. I'm not sure that ever happens with radio diarists. Some people view it as a chance to "reward" their favorites. Some people view it as a chance to "punish" stations that annoy them. The PPM should do a better job of tracking actual listening, but it would be most effective if people carried it for a long time.

 

[heydaybegone]

I've long suspected that the diary system does a better job of rating a stations outside promotion than it does rating actual listening, especially when you're talking about cume and not quarter hours. I think that some people write down what they consider to be "hip" instead of what they actually listen to. Of course, many people don't listen to a lot of radio, and don't really know who or what they're hearing when they do.

One advantage that Nielsel TV ratings have is that Nielsen families are monitored for extended periods of time. Eventually, anybody will ignore the monitor and revert to their normal viewing patterns. I'm not sure that ever happens with radio diarists. Some people view it as a chance to "reward" their favorites. Some people view it as a chance to "punish" stations that annoy them. The PPM should do a better job of tracking actual listening, but it would be most effective if people carried it for a long time.

Well said! But you missed the part about 'they actually THINK the diary IS a radio promotion - and the extra $5 in the envelope supports that -- no? :-\ But that said...All excellent points.