"More cars rolling off the assembly line will include Pandora. The company announced it has struck a new relationship with Scion and expanded its existing deal with Ford to make the customizable radio service available in 10 Ford cars and two Lincoln models. The company has also now crossed the 100 million user threshold and has 36 million monthly listeners."
-
Get involved.
We want your input!
Apply for Membership and join the conversations about everything related to broadcasting.
After we receive your registration, a moderator will review it. After your registration is approved, you will be permitted to post.
If you use a disposable or false email address, your registration will be rejected.
After your membership is approved, please take a minute to tell us a little bit about yourself.
https://www.radiodiscussions.com/forums/introduce-yourself.1088/
Thanks in advance and have fun!
RadioDiscussions Administrators
Bye Bye Music Format Radio - the Beginning of the End
- Thread starter congsec51
- Start date
Is that 36 million American listeners? Or 36 million, internationally?
But to give Pandora the benefit of the doubt, lets say its 36 million here in the United States. Since people listen to radio individually--that is, it tends not to be a family affair easily translatable to households--and the Census Bureau Population Clock tells us that as of today (7-12-11) we've got 311,750,000+ fellow Uhmurikans (as Gary Burbank would say), that means they're up to just over 11.5 percent. Higher than that if you use the current Arbitron cut-off of six-year-olds, and higher still if you use the old standard of 12-plus. Say it's 30 percent.
And terrestrial radio is at 93 percent? Ever get beat at anything (basketball? football?) 93-30?
Pardon me if I don't slit my wrists, just yet.
But to give Pandora the benefit of the doubt, lets say its 36 million here in the United States. Since people listen to radio individually--that is, it tends not to be a family affair easily translatable to households--and the Census Bureau Population Clock tells us that as of today (7-12-11) we've got 311,750,000+ fellow Uhmurikans (as Gary Burbank would say), that means they're up to just over 11.5 percent. Higher than that if you use the current Arbitron cut-off of six-year-olds, and higher still if you use the old standard of 12-plus. Say it's 30 percent.
And terrestrial radio is at 93 percent? Ever get beat at anything (basketball? football?) 93-30?
Pardon me if I don't slit my wrists, just yet.
Pandora has had ten years to get to this point. Ironically, about as long as satellite radio. The real story here is how Pandora is killing satellite. All those cars ALSO have satellite radio receivers installed, and most folks simply don't renew the subscription once the trial period ends.
The real bad news for Pandora is their monopoly is about to end. Lots of other companies are about to enter the frey. Spotify has been kept out of the US for years by the major labels. But that's about to change. Those who've used it say it's much better than Pandora.
I think we're on the verge of some new approaches to music radio that will revolutionize the experience. I strongly believe that radio should not be too dependent on record labels. Their business is very different. They're about selling units and we're about selling audience. Our job is closer to that of a concert promoter. Putting butts in seats. That's what we do. There are lots of ways to do what we do without worrying about Pandora. That's a completely different business.
The real bad news for Pandora is their monopoly is about to end. Lots of other companies are about to enter the frey. Spotify has been kept out of the US for years by the major labels. But that's about to change. Those who've used it say it's much better than Pandora.
I think we're on the verge of some new approaches to music radio that will revolutionize the experience. I strongly believe that radio should not be too dependent on record labels. Their business is very different. They're about selling units and we're about selling audience. Our job is closer to that of a concert promoter. Putting butts in seats. That's what we do. There are lots of ways to do what we do without worrying about Pandora. That's a completely different business.
The comparison with satellite radio is valid. The lesson learned there is free always wins over subscription, or cost to receive.
Just to clarify a bit (I think)--from PC Magazine: "Pandora announced Tuesday that it now has 100 million registered users and 36 million monthly active users.... the company boasts that it has secured 3.6 percent of all radio listening in the U.S., an increase from the 2.2 percent share it held six months ago." So, they're starting to catch up to satellite radio? NPR?
Not sure what the 3.6 percent represents, despite PC Mag's use of the word "share." AQH share? Cume rating? Weekly? Monthly?
The 100 million registered users cannot be a U.S. figure--we've only got around 237 million adults, 18+. That would be 42 percent of all living & breathing adult Americans. Hell, 25 percent of us can't even read, and 20 percent of us don't have jobs. So either this is an international figure or there is some serious BS--uh, fudging--going on here.
I don't want to minimize Pandora or what they have accomplished. I think it's a brilliant technology and generally pretty cool. But if there is a groundswell of activity--if Pandora is sweeping the nation and crushing conventional radio, it seems to have eluded most folks--and I live in a highly wired and tech-savvy market. Yeah, it's on the radar screen, but quietly.
As Big A noted, Pandora's real competitive tangle is with Sirius/XM, not terrestrial radio.
Not sure what the 3.6 percent represents, despite PC Mag's use of the word "share." AQH share? Cume rating? Weekly? Monthly?
The 100 million registered users cannot be a U.S. figure--we've only got around 237 million adults, 18+. That would be 42 percent of all living & breathing adult Americans. Hell, 25 percent of us can't even read, and 20 percent of us don't have jobs. So either this is an international figure or there is some serious BS--uh, fudging--going on here.
I don't want to minimize Pandora or what they have accomplished. I think it's a brilliant technology and generally pretty cool. But if there is a groundswell of activity--if Pandora is sweeping the nation and crushing conventional radio, it seems to have eluded most folks--and I live in a highly wired and tech-savvy market. Yeah, it's on the radar screen, but quietly.
As Big A noted, Pandora's real competitive tangle is with Sirius/XM, not terrestrial radio.
How many servers do you need to have 36 million people tuned in to Pandora at the same time? How big a building to hold them? Anyone here ever seen their operation? Just asking.
KeithE4 brings up a valid point. How will Pandora be accessed on the go?
Either the car has a built-in CDMA or GSM radio, or it tethers to the user's existing cell phone. Either way, it's going to be an added expense.
It's possible to get dirt cheap 3G service through Virgin Mobile, using a USB doohickey (sorry to be so technical) but their coverage is extremely limited. Going with one of the more national-footprinted services jacks the price up considerably.
Tethering is an added cost for probably 95% of smartphone users, and another 99% of feature phones don't support tethering at all.
Looking at the logistics, it seems like this is going to be a big uphill battle. The people who love Pandora already have computers at home and/or smartphones with data plans. Paying more just to listen to Pandora on the go through an integrated device in the car just sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Why? Those smartphone users. They all already pay for data AND can play their audio through car stereos, either through a AUX IN jack or Bluetooth, if supported.
Frankly, I've never listened to Pandora. I signed up a few months ago when I got the Android app and it keeps loading itself and crashing itself, all without me ever having listened to a single song. So I am not anxious to try out their services at this point.
Last but not least, 3G on the go just isn't very robust outside cities. Some providers like Verizon really blanket the country, but not everyone uses them. Some of us have regional carriers or are on a budget. For example, T-Mobile has no 3G for nearly 150 miles in any direction from where I live. My carrier's 3G is only EV-DO Rev 0 and is very choppy. It's full of holes where there's 1X (like EDGE but slower) which kills any ability to stream for a long period of time. AT&T has a big nationwide network but their 3G services miss tons or rural areas. For a lot of people, Pandora in dash will be totally useless.
Either the car has a built-in CDMA or GSM radio, or it tethers to the user's existing cell phone. Either way, it's going to be an added expense.
It's possible to get dirt cheap 3G service through Virgin Mobile, using a USB doohickey (sorry to be so technical) but their coverage is extremely limited. Going with one of the more national-footprinted services jacks the price up considerably.
Tethering is an added cost for probably 95% of smartphone users, and another 99% of feature phones don't support tethering at all.
Looking at the logistics, it seems like this is going to be a big uphill battle. The people who love Pandora already have computers at home and/or smartphones with data plans. Paying more just to listen to Pandora on the go through an integrated device in the car just sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Why? Those smartphone users. They all already pay for data AND can play their audio through car stereos, either through a AUX IN jack or Bluetooth, if supported.
Frankly, I've never listened to Pandora. I signed up a few months ago when I got the Android app and it keeps loading itself and crashing itself, all without me ever having listened to a single song. So I am not anxious to try out their services at this point.
Last but not least, 3G on the go just isn't very robust outside cities. Some providers like Verizon really blanket the country, but not everyone uses them. Some of us have regional carriers or are on a budget. For example, T-Mobile has no 3G for nearly 150 miles in any direction from where I live. My carrier's 3G is only EV-DO Rev 0 and is very choppy. It's full of holes where there's 1X (like EDGE but slower) which kills any ability to stream for a long period of time. AT&T has a big nationwide network but their 3G services miss tons or rural areas. For a lot of people, Pandora in dash will be totally useless.
amfmxm said:
Pandora is apparently only available in the U S. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandora_Radio
RadioStarOne said:
There are 36 million using the service regularly. The average audience, per Triton's press release, is just under 700,000.
amfmxm said:
Satellite has 20 million subscribers, give or take, and nearly all are in cars... where listening spans tend to be short. Pandora, with 36 million active users, surpasses satellite by quite a bit.
It's a US figure, as the music licensing agreements don't allow them to stream outside the US and they would not want to pay for it anyway.
36 million are active... the other 64 million might be registrations by the same people with different emails, etc. Or the same person with a work and home account.
Pandora is opening local sales organizations in all major markets. That competes with radio, not satellite which has no local sales. Of course, now Pandora has to contend with iHeart radio, the CBS product, etc.
I guess I'm one of those 100 million who is not among the 36 million--since I signed up (at no charge) a year or two ago and played with the thing for a couple days. Created a couple of "formats" customized to my peculiar taste... listened to each for an hour or two... got bored and promptly forgot about it.
Then again, I've always recognized that part of the charm of conventional radio is that I don't know what's coming next--because somebody else is making those decisions. I like to be surprised.
And for decades I've understood that most radio listeners aren't like me--which is fine, since meeting their predictable expectations has allowed me to make a helluva good living in radio.
Vive la difference!
Then again, I've always recognized that part of the charm of conventional radio is that I don't know what's coming next--because somebody else is making those decisions. I like to be surprised.
And for decades I've understood that most radio listeners aren't like me--which is fine, since meeting their predictable expectations has allowed me to make a helluva good living in radio.
Vive la difference!
amfmxm said:
I did the same thing and haven't signed into Pandora since. I do, however, listen frequently to various streaming stations on the Net.
But just the other day I was listening to a long aircheck from KYA in the 60's and realized what I was missing on today's music radio and my MP3 player......the personalities. There was no connection between me, the listener, and the personality, the entertainer. There also were no 10-minute commercial blocks.
Pandora's total listeners are growing quite rapidly. The main things holding it back now are the 40-hour limit and the high expense of data plans. I would be surprised if the 40-hour did not get eliminated by the end of the year. Data is not going to get cheaper anytime soon, yet I would be surprised if Pandora did not get around it. We have very weak net-neutrality rules in the USA. If Pandora would get friendly with mobile carriers, it would be relatively easy for them to get-around the charges by some sort of a priority or exclusive partnership. Especially once At&t and Sprint get their LTE networks up and running. With only 4 major carriers, soon to be 3, it will be easy for the carriers and Pandora to do whatever they wish, whenever they wish. Once Pandora gets an affordable method of delivery for in-car listening, AM/FM will be baked alive.
Casey said:
You'd be surprised. Most people use Pandora in conjunction with, not in place of, AM/FM. We heard the same thing about satellite a few years ago. And FM radio continues to adapt to the competition. So what you hear now may change in a couple of years. No one is complacent. No one's just coasting. In keeping with the subject line of this thread, there will always be a lot of music that you won't hear on OTA radio. That's inevitable in a world where anyone who wants to can release an album. Not everyone wants to hear that kind of variety. For them, there's FM.
Casey, I'm not convinced of your belief that Pandora and the carriers could cozy up. Pandora is a friend of the carriers because it's a (relative) data hog, but that means they'll resist any urge to let that traffic bypass the meters. It's a good potential income generator via overage on capped plans. The only way a "bypass partnership" would happen, in my opinion, is if it cost the consumer more money. And I certainly don't see Pandora easing up on the 40 hour streaming limit. If anything, it may gradually be reduced to get more people into subscriptions.
Spotify just debuted in the US and I've been giving it a test drive. Right now, free accounts have unlimited listening, but that's only for the first six months. After that, it's capped at 10 hours a month with 5 replays of any one track. The freedom is the bait, and the capping is to drive people who suddenly find the service worthwhile into a subscription. Right now I enjoy being able to listen to entire albums and user-generated playlists, but come time for it to be capped, I'll probably uninstall it.
The question is, how much are people going to be willing to spend to listen to music on the go or at home? People have already balked at Sirius/XM's prices, and Pandora, Spotify, Rhapsody, Grooveshark and others are all dependent on subscriptions to stay afloat and so far, few are biting. Pandora's paying subscriber base, out of over 75 million active users is something like 700,000. Less than 1%.
Free listening (with ads) is the model they get their revenue from, just like radio. The difference is radio has never had a limit on how long you could listen. It's that reason that I don't believe Pandora will really affect music radio listenership much.
Spotify just debuted in the US and I've been giving it a test drive. Right now, free accounts have unlimited listening, but that's only for the first six months. After that, it's capped at 10 hours a month with 5 replays of any one track. The freedom is the bait, and the capping is to drive people who suddenly find the service worthwhile into a subscription. Right now I enjoy being able to listen to entire albums and user-generated playlists, but come time for it to be capped, I'll probably uninstall it.
The question is, how much are people going to be willing to spend to listen to music on the go or at home? People have already balked at Sirius/XM's prices, and Pandora, Spotify, Rhapsody, Grooveshark and others are all dependent on subscriptions to stay afloat and so far, few are biting. Pandora's paying subscriber base, out of over 75 million active users is something like 700,000. Less than 1%.
Free listening (with ads) is the model they get their revenue from, just like radio. The difference is radio has never had a limit on how long you could listen. It's that reason that I don't believe Pandora will really affect music radio listenership much.
Zach said:
Pandora takes up quite a bit of bandwidth, but as Pandora continues to gain ground for in-car listening, an exclusive partnership could give a carrier a serious advantage over other carriers. As far as the 40-hour limit, it already does not apply to mobile devices. As the industry gets more competitive and Pandora gets more profitable, the limit will have to reason to stay.
Spotify is pretty good, but as you said the free service is not going to stay unlimited forever. I would actually argue that neither will their paid packages in a few years. Any serious listener can easily play enough tracks to exceed the monthly cost due to the royalty rates. I see more of a service offering a certain amount of credits/plays per month in the future. But in the mean time, I have no doubt that Spotify will gain quite an audience. They have a solid offering, despite being rather weak on the library in comparison to MOG and Rhapsody.
I do think people will pay for subscriptions, whether it be Pandora, Spotify, or similar services. The over-all growth rate is not terribly rapid, but it is continuous. At one time many people would never have subscribed to cable for their television, yet over time they did. I don't think this is any different.
Zach said:
The average listening per week has been shown to be around 10 to 12 hours a week, so the limit on the free Pandora model is hardly a major barrier.
- Status