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Can it happen here?

C

Carmine5

Ah, those crazy Brits. Gotta love 'em.

According to The Times UK, the British radio industry is trying to lure reluctant consumers into swapping their analog radios by offering discounts of 15% -20% on digital radios in exchange for their old receivers. It's what they call a "scrappage scheme."

The government is still on track to stop analog FM broadcasting by 2015. They were hoping that by 2013 digital radio penetration would reach 90% of the population. So far only 24% have converted to digital.

The reason for this is: "because of poor awareness of digital and satisfaction with the existing service," according to the article.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article7130071.ece

But as I've said in the past, the only way HD Radio is going to succeed is either by way of a massive give-a-way (or close to it) or a government mandate. It seems the Brits are doing a little bit of both here.

I'm going to file this article under, "Don't Give Ibiquity or The FCC Any Crazy Ideas."
 
Not gonna happen here. The administration has its hands full right now...the last thing it wants to do is tell everyone they have to junk 83 gillion radios.
 
Yep. Unless something changes the FCC has said, in effect, "there, iBiquity and Big Group Radio - we rubber-stamped everything for you from adoption of IBOC as the standard, to allowing AM-HD 24 hours, to giving you the FM digital increase you wanted. Now go make it work for yourselves."

There would be way too much political baggage from mandating all-digital - especially with a digital system that's even more controversial than DAB. And there's nowhere near the political upside there was with HDTV.

As noted here, the FCC's concern with "audio services" is making sure grievance groups and high-profile, loud minorities get stuff handed to them....and to make sure the spectrum use fee checks clear promptly. Other than that, it's "don't pester us about crap like interference issues."
 
Savage said:
Yep. Unless something changes the FCC has said, in effect, "there, iBiquity and Big Group Radio - we rubber-stamped everything for you from adoption of IBOC as the standard, to allowing AM-HD 24 hours, to giving you the FM digital increase you wanted. Now go make it work for yourselves."

There would be way too much political baggage from mandating all-digital - especially with a digital system that's even more controversial than DAB. And there's nowhere near the political upside there was with HDTV.

As noted here, the FCC's concern with "audio services" is making sure grievance groups and high-profile, loud minorities get stuff handed to them....and to make sure the spectrum use fee checks clear promptly. Other than that, it's "don't pester us about crap like interference issues."
Click to expand...

This is true, however I'm thinking that when it comes time to talk about expanding the FM band that, rather than expand it (after all, didn't the FCC just assign a VHF allotment on channel 5 to Delaware?) the FCC will, instead, call for industry wide use of IBOC on FM with an incentive for doing so.

The Commish seems to like the idea of stations doubling and tripling up on each other's carriers, like so many bunk beds. They proposed something similar for broadcast television in the NBP.
 
Yeah, Carmine, but think about that. Sunsetting analog on FM would result in a net DECREASE in the number of spectrum-use checks coming in, since in effect each FM would be providing one LESS audio service. The FCC would run, not walk away from that - especially when the few sentient FCC staffers point out how many FM stations are likely to starve and go dark from lack of audience in an all-digital IBOC scenario. It would be like the mass suicide of UHF TV in the mid-1950s all over, except with much bigger consequences.

Then there's the fact that the FCC is on record saying they won't mandate all-digital, and the political fallout from having 99.994% of FM receivers becoming obsolete. Plus opposition from the 86% of FM broadcasters who would oppose the insanity of voluntarily chasing away most of their audience - that's the approximate percentage of FM operators who haven't converted to HD and have no intent to do so.

Stack it all up: there's a huge political and fiscal downside here. You know: like everything else having to do with this stupid "innovation."

(For an additional reference, talk to any radio sales engineer. The candid ones will tell you: the vaunted "digital increase for FM" has resulted in approximately ZERO new orders for HD equipment.)
 
Savage said:
Yeah, Carmine, but think about that. Sunsetting analog on FM would result in a net DECREASE in the number of spectrum-use checks coming in, since in effect each FM would be providing one LESS audio service. The FCC would run, not walk away from that - especially when the few sentient FCC staffers point out how many FM stations are likely to starve and go dark from lack of audience in an all-digital IBOC scenario. It would be like the mass suicide of UHF TV in the mid-1950s all over, except with much bigger consequences.
Click to expand...

I agree, Mr. Savage. Spectrum-use fees (like app filing fees, fines and auctions) is a golden egg-laying goose the FCC would be loathe to harm.

But I was thinking that rather than expand the band or move to another band, the FCC would probably call for more, if not all, FM stations to adopt IBOC in its current hybrid form, not as a digital-only service as the British want to do. In that way new entrants, AM stations who want or need to go FM, displaced LPFMs (or LPFMs drowned out by the noise of a digital power increase) would be "encouraged" to migrate to another station's digital side-channel instead of taking up more spectrum which, as we know, is just about used up.

It's not an appealing option, sort of like Section 8 housing. But it's either that or live on the street. Like I said, the FCC has had no problem suggesting it to broadcast TV, so why not radio. And, yes, such a move, I believe, would have a devastating effect on the broadcast TV industry, probably more so than radio.

c5
 
I think the FCC is already doing what you suggest. That's why, IMO, they rubber-stamp everything having to do with HD. But I do think there are practical limits. For example, you suggest "incentives." In what form? The Commish isn't about to hand out fee-free spectrum use. Ever-greedy Congress won't allocate tax rebates or credits. Don't expect Washington to start churning out HD Radio purchase vouchers a la HDTV.

No, I think the FCC will "encourage" digital radio (as you posit) precisely the way they have so far: reflexively approving everything iBiquity, the NAB, NPR and the Alliance want, and ignoring interference complaints.

Until a Federal court forces their hand, that is. And the ever-present interference problems are already imposing practical limits in HD's implementation. That's the self-immolating conundrum of IBOC. The more it gets implemented, the more impossible its universal adoption becomes. It's perpetually suicidal.

In the meantime the public and most broadcasters will continue to reject HD. This dog has hunted reluctantly for about eight years now, and it's getting to be one Tired Old Dog.
 
10 years ago, how many digital TVs and converter boxes were sold to consumers? Slightly less than the number of HD radios out there.
 
Two things to think about when compareing HD radio and HDTV madated conversion. There is little if any quality of sound improvement and most important no spectrum to be gained for sell off (follow the money).
 
I'm not sure I get Nick's point. So....you think HD will be where HDTV is today, after ten more years?
Or are you saying that HD Radio will take off if there's a government voucher program to replace radios??

Not going to happen. And....not going to happen.
 
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