cbs flip of

[davideduardo]

Yes, i know the orlando area is real hispanic but don't they have enough stations?

No. Only one major format is covered on FM, and Hispanics, due to the overall younger age of the community, stay away from AM in droves.

 

[PhDance]

It's not going spanish (at least it shouldn't). I have a post on another board that explains my reasoning and shows the research behind this position, however, the younger Puerto Rican demographic which predominates the hispanic market in Orlando isn't a very lucrative (lower income on average) segment. Plus, since there's less diversity in the hispanic market (it's pretty much 50% Puerto Ricans, this percentage will increase) than other markets (other markets have so many spanish stations because each one targets a different hispanic segment), the pie isn't large enough to be cut further than it is (and Clear Channel already has a grip on this demo).

Since the options are mainly variants of a niche format, I would love to see a pure Dance formatted station like the old WPYM in South Florida. A more youthful market compared to most in addition to a format that would appeal dually to hispanics and caucasians (including the coveted Male 18-34 segment) with a higher TSL rating (evidenced by the last ratings book from XM as compared with many other stations) AND a market familiarity with the music (people remember the dance played on 95-3 Party) AND a vibrant club scene (go into a club any Saturday night and see how Dance music gets the bodies on the dance floor!) make this choice a great option for CBS. Party's lack of a full commitment to this format could be CBS' gain. Plus it could be sold to advertisers as a package with WJHM.

 

[davideduardo]

It's not going spanish (at least it shouldn't). I have a post on another board that explains my reasoning and shows the research behind this position, however, the younger Puerto Rican demographic which predominates the hispanic market in Orlando isn't a very lucrative (lower income on average) segment.

Actually, a significant portion of the Puerto Rican segment in Orlando is composed of educated, upwardly mobile Puerto Rican professionals who left the Island due to social conditions. The community is filled with technical and engineering graduates, CPAs, accountants, managers, etc. The Puerto Rican community has, in fact, a higher household income than the general market, much like the Hispanics in Miami.

Plus, since there's less diversity in the hispanic market (it's pretty much 50% Puerto Ricans, this percentage will increase) than other markets

The Hispanic market is around 90% Puerto Rican.

(other markets have so many spanish stations because each one targets a different hispanic segment), the pie isn't large enough to be cut further than it is (and Clear Channel already has a grip on this demo).

You are saying Puerto Ricans only like tropical? The fact is, based on ratings in Puerto Rico, that there are a dozen major formats based on music, and several talk variants that have significant shares in PR, ranging from AC, Hot AC, tropical gold, reggaetón, CHR to oldies and contemporary Christian. All Hispanic nationalities are similarly fragmented and there are, thus, far more formats in Spanish than in English.

There are only two significant players, one a rimshot. Clear has the rhythmic / topical blend , and Entravision is apparently going from a tropical / rhythmic to a Hot AC position per rumors. There are many other options.

While some formats, like regional Mexican, only appeal to people from one geographic area, most formats have broader appeal and are much less selective as to nationality. In any case, in Orlando the bulk of the listening is to FM. We will see how Mexican oldies does on 740, but the rejection of AM by Hispanics is large in the under-45 demos so that one may be challenged.

In your post elsewhere you suggest that Miami has more Spanish stations because of the diversity by nationality. This is not so. There is only one of the roughly 14 Spanish stations that is specifically targeted at non-Cubans, and that is 1260 AM which is predominantly aimed at Colombians. All the Miami Dade FM (6 of them) target Cubans predominantly and all others secondarily. The AMs, with the exception of one, are Very Cuban in focus except for the religious ones that are not specific to anyone.

 

[The Bottom-line]

I find it interesting people who don't even live in Orlando, Florida spouting off comments about what the market is all about.

Question I have for David "Edurado" is, as a Radio Consultant who specializes in Spanish Language formats do you have any current radio stations in the metro of Orlando (metro as defined by Arb)? Are you still with Univision? Are you 105.9's new Consultant? If you do have stations in Orlando...what form of research have you done in the past year?

In my opinion your postings are weighted...you have a vested interest because of the potential dollars to your pocket promoting a consultancy firm.

http://www.davidgleason.com

 

[radio_connector]

105.9 is not going Spanish so maybe we can talk about something else besides the way overserved Spanish community that is in Orlando. There is no way anyone can convince me that the Spanish community is an affluent one. With my own eyes I see them working mostly at Disney and other service industry jobs. Driving around central florida I don't get a sense that hispanics own big business's or move money. They own mainly mom and pops and are so spread apart that they don't even stand out. So please don't compare Orlando to Miami it's not even close. They have large numbers but not an affluent group at all...they are the flavor of day by advertisers. You guys can throw stats out all you want when I drive through Miami I know I am in Miami I don't get that same presence here in Orlando. Because hispanics were so under-served for many years it seems to me that everyone wants a peice of that pie...I am not writing that they shouldn't have an FM, what I am writing is anything beyond that is just over-kill. I don't beleive 740 is going to be a success with the Mexican format either by the way. I can't post what CBS is doing but trust me it won't be oldies in it's truest sense or Spanish.

 

[davideduardo]

I find it interesting people who don't even live in Orlando, Florida spouting off comments about what the market is all about.

I don't live in Argentina, yet I took a last-rated FM to #1 in 30 days with the highest cume in the Western Hemisphere. This makes sense if you realize that stations today are listener driven and based on consulting with listeners.

I have looked at very recent research done for another media company.

Question I have for David "Edurado" is, as a Radio Consultant who specializes in Spanish Language formats

I don't specialize in Spanish language formats. I specialize in general market formats outside the US. And my second given name is "Eduardo" not Edurado.

[/
quote] do you have any current radio stations in the metro of Orlando (metro as defined by Arb)?[/quote]

It's been called "Arbitron" for twenty years, not ARB. And no, I do no work in Orlando, but have family there and one of my senior researchers works out of there.

Are you still with Univision? Are you 105.9's new Consultant? If you do have stations in Orlando...what form of research have you done in the past year?

I don't consult in the US. And I have worked in Orlando in the past.

In my opinion your postings are weighted...you have a vested interest because of the potential dollars to your pocket promoting a consultancy firm.

I can not do work for third parties in the US. And the market is too small.

 

[PhDance]

Actually, a significant portion of the Puerto Rican segment in Orlando is composed of educated, upwardly mobile Puerto Rican professionals who left the Island due to social conditions. The community is filled with technical and engineering graduates, CPAs, accountants, managers, etc. The Puerto Rican community has, in fact, a higher household income than the general market, much like the Hispanics in Miami.

Better check that research again. http://graduados.uprrp.edu/Sociologia/pdf/hsummit_prcentralflorida.pdf My claim wasn't based on a stereotype, it's based on solid researched findings. See below:

"Despite their achievements, Puerto Ricans have not attained socioeconomic parity with othermajor ethnic groups in Central Florida. On average, Puerto Ricans have lower family incomes,educational levels, rates of self-employment, and proportions of managers and professionals than other Hispanics and non-Hispanics in the area"

The Hispanic market is around 90% Puerto Rican.

Better check that research again. http://www.orlando.org/clientuploads/hsummit/prinorlando2.ppt#11

You are right that it's not 50%, actually, it's 47.4% if you want to be exact. I was rounding for simplification purposes. (see link listed above) Nowhere close to your estimate though. If somehow you have verifiable research showing the percentage of Puerto Ricans in Orlando to be 90%, I'd really like to read that specific article of "The Onion".

You have to be kidding me if you really think that the hispanic market is 90% Puerto Rican. Coming from a resident of Northeast Orlando, if you really believe it can be that saturated, I have a bridge you really should consider purchasing. Wire me over a million dollars and I'll get you the details.

Sorry man, I am really not trying to attack you here, but I couldn't get past the glowing errors in your post in order to read the rest of what you said. I am an academic scholar so I am very familiar with research, and I learned from making a lot of mistakes making unverifiable claims in the past. If you really are a consultant, I strongly suggest you research before making claims such as "the Hispanic population of Orlando is 90% Puerto Rican"!!

 

[davideduardo]

Better check that research again.
Better check that research again.

Both your sources are from 2000 and before, and are nearly a decade old.

Totally invalid.

Social and economic conditions on the Island have caused more professionals and white collar Boricuas to pick Orlando and the area is increasingly popular as a retirement area as the Social Security payments go further than in PR.

You are right that it's not 50%, actually, it's 47.4% if you want to be exact. I was rounding for simplification purposes. (see link listed above) Nowhere close to your estimate though. If somehow you have verifiable research showing the percentage of Puerto Ricans in Orlando to be 90%, I'd really like to read that specific article of "The Onion".

I have seen proprietary research by a major media company. There are, projected to 1/1/08, 380,000 Hispanics in Orlando (MSA) and a tad over 90% are Boricuas, too.

You have to be kidding me if you really think that the hispanic market is 90% Puerto Rican. Coming from a resident of Northeast Orlando, if you really believe it can be that saturated, I have a bridge you really should consider purchasing. Wire me over a million dollars and I'll get you the details.

I have actually seen the results of a very, very recent random probability sample of significant size in the metro. The important thing to keep in mind is that the Census always understates "Puerto Ricans" as the "Hispanic Question" in both the long and short form is, to many Puerto Ricans, offensive. Since Puerto Ricans are born US citizens, their heritage is AMERICAN.

My daughters found this question particularly troubling and neither answered it in the 2000 Census.

Sorry man, I am really not trying to attack you here, but I couldn't get past the glowing errors in your post in order to read the rest of what you said. I am an academic scholar so I am very familiar with research, and I learned from making a lot of mistakes making unverifiable claims in the past. If you really are a consultant, I strongly suggest you research before making claims such as "the Hispanic population of Orlando is 90% Puerto Rican"!!

Anyone who calls themselves an "academic scholar" (beyond the redundancy...) isn't. And anyone who posts that contemporary dance has a chance anywhere in the US is obviously in possession of faulty data all over the place.

Two 10 year old studies based on one data source do not make for convincing arguments.

 

[The Bottom-line]

David are you currently employed by Univison? Your resume claims you are working in 17 US markets...is that correct?

http://www.davidgleason.com/DFG%20Resume.htm

By the way nice to see you are proud it took ten + years to graduate High School.

http://www.davidgleason.com/Story_start_in_radio.htm

 

[P-R]

A reason 105.9 "might" go to a Hispanic/Latin format possibly was answered on another board by the member snafu who was making a comment about 740-AM:

You guys are drawing differences in Spanish language formatting that has not dawned on the Cheap Channel folks at all. They are convinced that Orlando will be as Hispanic as South Florida in five years and have convinced themselves that by doing this they are way ahead of the curve.

http://www.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,87068.20.html

Is it all about being ahead of the curve and riding things out till then? Not about current demos...but five years down the road? Can CBS make more money now ('08) changing 105.9 to what David has been talking about in this thread than to an Oldies/Oldies blend or Fresh or (fill in the blank)?

 

[davideduardo]

By the way nice to see you are proud it took ten + years to graduate High School.

Any port in a storm, huh?

What I am proud of is, being thoroughly bored with High School, building a group of my own radio stations, starting my first one at age 17, and building it up to a group of over a dozen stations. By the time I completed HS, I had had #1 and profitable radio stations in three countries. The experience alllowed me to completely ignore normal broadcast curricula in college, where I designed my own. I did psychology, sociology, cultural anthropology (programming) and business and accounting and finance plus math and computer science and such. Since there was no degree for what I put together, I could do whatever I wanted... I just could not get a diploma. It didn't matter... I got a call from a headhunter and went back "home" to Puerto Rico and built another #1 station.

What have you done?

 

[PhDance]

Better check that research again.
Better check that research again.

Both your sources are from 2000 and before, and are nearly a decade old.

[snip]

Two 10 year old studies based on one data source do not make for convincing arguments.

Did you even open the link? On the first page of the second link and within the first 10 pages of the first link is data from 2003. It's 2007. 2007-2003=4 years. First you make up statistics, now you try to shoot down data without even reading it? Sounds like the school that taught you how to be a consultant had quite the rigorous curriculum!

Frankly, I really don't care whether you think I'm an "academic scholar" (which is the prefered nomenclature. actually) or not. It doesn't change the fact that I am. You aren't going to win arguments playing that card.

I brought Dance into the picture because I was arguing for the consideration of that format given that we were discussing niche formats as options. I never once said I had data to show it would be a run away success. I have a feeling it would not be unsuccessful for reasons I listed, however, unlike you I don't masquerade my gut feelings as "fact", as you have done a few times now on this thread.

 

[davideduardo]

Did you even open the link? On the first page of the second link and within the first 10 pages of the first link is data from 2003. It's 2007. 2007-2003=4 years. First you make up statistics, now you try to shoot down data without even reading it? Sounds like the school that taught you how to be a consultant had quite the rigorous curriculum!

The data is based purely on 2000 US Census material, and has been supplemented by no other reasonable data except projections of the 2000 dataset.

When the US Census was released, there was considerable controversy about the overall Hispanic count due to the large illegal population of the US. This masked another issue, which is the undercount of Puerto Ricans, born US Citizens, who do not consider, generally (except rapid Pipiolos) themselves to be Latin American. This has caused larged undercounts and misclassifications. For example, even in the Census, the quantity of "unclassified" Hispanics in Orlando is huge... coming predominantly from Puerto Ricans who don't want to be called "Hispanic" or "Latino."

The real issue, though, is that there is no migratory control over Puerto Ricans, any more than there would be for Iowans. They are just Americans, and many are not classified as Hispanic or Latino.

Sources used by Hispanic marketers show the ORL market to be much more Puerto Rican... as high as the 90+% I believe true to figures ranging from around 70% and up. Nearly all this data is proprietary, just as anything beyond 12+ numbers in Arbitron is. We pay lots of money to get data that helps us strategically, and we do not give anything other than overviews away.

This is why a major media company did a study this year and showed that the metro was over 80% Hispanic. Of course, this was on 18+ adults, but unless there is a major difference in fertility in some subset, this is going to be pretty close on total population.

Even such sources as Hispanic Marketing Weekly and various market directories contradict severely the Census data, and that includes the Claritas material that supplements the anual Census updates with data collected from motor vehicle registrations, utility and phone hookups, and a variety of other information that allows the building of a more robust model than a decennial head count. In other words, to accept that the Census based data might be seriously flawed, you have to accept that a census is impractical if not impossible in this day and age and that a statistical sample may be vastly more accurat.

The "blinders on" failure to see outside the Census, particularly with Boricuas, is a set-up for failure.

Frankly, I really don't care whether you think I'm an "academic scholar" (which is the prefered nomenclature. actually) or not. It doesn't change the fact that I am. You aren't going to win arguments playing that card.

What is a "nonacademic scholar" then? Unless there is such a thing, the term is redundant.

I brought Dance into the picture because I was arguing for the consideration of that format given that we were discussing niche formats as options. I never once said I had data to show it would be a run away success. I have a feeling it would not be unsuccessful for reasons I listed, however, unlike you I don't masquerade my gut feelings as "fact", as you have done a few times now on this thread.

Every radio format today is niche in nature. When the top station in the market has below a 7 share, nobody can be anything else but niche. But narrow opportunities vs. impossible ones is the issue with dance. The format does not work in the US, for whatever reason. Discussing dance is like discussing pure jazz or bluegrass or any of a variety of non-starting radio formats.

 

[PhDance]

Dave, there are plenty of scholars that decide not to stay in Academia, and they will serve as consultants (not necessarily radio) to major corporations. I'm employed by a major Florida research unversity, therefore, I'm an Academic scholar as opposed to a corporate scholar. Although if the pay in the corporate sector continues to be what several of my peers have recently started to enjoy, I may need to renegotiate/reevaluate my options.

While the Puerto Rican percentage is most certainly not 90%, if I was to agree with you for the moment that it was, it still doesn't contradict any of my original points. When I was arguing the number was 50% I was saying that is unusually high, and therefore, since there is less diversity within the hispanic community (certainly to the point that the numbers of say, Colombians, isn't significant enough to warrant a dedicated format). I am not interested in debating the exact number of Puerto Ricans in Orlando. I cited the data from the most recent work I could find. I sincerely hope that you consider those numbers in the future instead of trying to argue anecdotal observations which you use to suggest the figure is much different than what data otherwise shows.

While I did not look for this specific data point, younger/more recent Puerto Rican immigrants are more interested in integration with mainstream culture. This is another strike against a station that would target this demographic. This is likely again why you see such high hispanic support of Power 95-3. It's a mainstream station which has enough niche songs on its playlist to appease this culture.

I'm going to hope there was an error in the statement where you suggest the MARKET overall is 80% hispanic. Not even Miami is that hispanic. That statement is so grossly erroneous that you can't possibly be serious. Again, I'm not interested in flaming you three days before Christmas over such a fundamental error if you are serious. I'm just going to hope this is a joke so I don't feel bad coughing myself half to death laughing so hard.

For the record, I am not averse to the Puerto Rican culture, my last girlfriend was Puerto Rican. Still, from a business standpoint, launching another Spanish station on the FM would be irresponsible to shareholders. Hopefully now we can resume discussion on what the station SHOULD be. I have been a fan of O-Rock but yes the playlist is very dull, it overplays recurrents and isn't quick enough on new songs (sometimes being beaten to the punch by WXXL). It will be a shame losing the mashup/dance mixshow on late sunday nights and the annual No-Snow Show (ironically occurring a few days after a rare batch of flurries last year). Also, some of the personalities on that station were decent. Hopefully they will land at respectable stations.

Dave, I would bet the roof over my head that I could program a Dance format in Orlando that would earn higher ratings than O-Rock's present format, however I am aware this format has a very low probability of being realized. But yes this is me being an armchair GM and I don't pretend it to be anything else. The point I was making was that if we're talking about launching niche formats that won't generate high ratings or high CUME (such as another Spanish station) then why shouldn't programmers consider this one? Surely a loyal listenership would be just as strong if not stronger than that which would be created from the launch of another niche format. Plus, I'm sure CBS radio would love sucking some life out of the thorn that WPYO is on WJHM (which did much better in ratings prior to Power's launch), and with the one-two punch of this proposed station and WJHM, they would likely accomplish this task.

 

[radio_connector]

Sorry to disapoint David and company 105.9 is not going spanish. I know what direction its going to do and it won't be spanish. Another thing I am not for anyone having to reveal any stats to comment on here so David you don't have to reveal anything to anyone. I have found that when you start to blog about that sort of stuff it starts to turn into nothing more than a bunch a nonsense. Furthermore, for all you guys that want to know more about him you should start a David Eduardo string or something. I rather write about 105.9 and its direction but again it won't be spanish or oldies.

 

[John Waywoods]

This Cuban born, American will be on vacation in Orlando as of tomorrow. I plan to enjoy 105.9 in its current Alt. Rock format.

 

[PhDance]

Curious...

Sorry to disapoint David and company 105.9 is not going spanish. I know what direction its going to do and it won't be spanish. Another thing I am not for anyone having to reveal any stats to comment on here so David you don't have to reveal anything to anyone. I have found that when you start to blog about that sort of stuff it starts to turn into nothing more than a bunch a nonsense. Furthermore, for all you guys that want to know more about him you should start a David Eduardo string or something. I rather write about 105.9 and its direction but again it won't be spanish or oldies.

Another note to this string...there are a few formats that take well to satelite and automation. Oldies being one of them, I think it is not a coincidense that they are launching Audio Vault and they talking Oldies at the same time. Ofcourse, I am speculating but I am trying to put 1 and 2 together and this is what I am coming up with...

Don't mean to sound smart by saying "which is it", but I'm curious what made you change your mind? What do you think the format will be?

Also, I certainly understand and am not pushing for EVERYTHING to be revealed on a thread, but when someone walks in and says "I have data that shows [insert something very counterintuitive]" well then, under those circumstances that person has already broken confidentiality by making that statement. At that point, it should be expected for them to reveal their sources or not be taken seriously. If I told you that Christmas was going to be officially cancelled this year but said that my source was "proprietary" then you would understandably question my credibility or contribution to the thread and/or flame the hell out of me (which is not my intention). I don't know if you live in Orlando or not, but if you did, you would see how counterintuitive David's claims are. There is no way that the hispanic population of Orlando is 90% Puerto Rican, or even more outrageous, the entire metro population of Orlando is 80% hispanic. That is essentially on the same level as saying the caucasian population in all of the United States is 2%. Respectfully, I'm not going to waste everyone's time debating with someone who argues that the world is flat, so to speak.

Let's talk about what it should be since we've already ruled out what it shouldn't be.

 

[davideduardo]

Dave, there are plenty of scholars that decide not to stay in Academia, and they will serve as consultants (not necessarily radio) to major corporations. I'm employed by a major Florida research unversity, therefore, I'm an Academic scholar as opposed to a corporate scholar. Although if the pay in the corporate sector continues to be what several of my peers have recently started to enjoy, I may need to renegotiate/reevaluate my options.

That actually makes sense, although I had never heard the two terms. I stand corrected.

While the Puerto Rican percentage is most certainly not 90%, if I was to agree with you for the moment that it was, it still doesn't contradict any of my original points. When I was arguing the number was 50% I was saying that is unusually high, and therefore, since there is less diversity within the hispanic community (certainly to the point that the numbers of say, Colombians, isn't significant enough to warrant a dedicated format).

Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Dominicans, and any other nationality of Latin Americans do not have one predominant format any more than Americans do. Just as most US markets have country, AC, CHR, Rock, talk, oldies and a hybrids, so does each Latin American nation. I owned at one time 4 AMs and 5 FMs in Quito, Ecuador and I had different formats on each and could have filled in a couple of additonal voids if I had had the oppourtunity.

Salsa / tropical, for example, is not the most importasnt format in Puerto Rico. The top formats are CHR, AC, Hurban, salsa and Chrisitian

I am not interested in debating the exact number of Puerto Ricans in Orlando. I cited the data from the most recent work I could find. I sincerely hope that you consider those numbers in the future instead of trying to argue anecdotal observations which you use to suggest the figure is much different than what data otherwise shows.

In 1999, the Census projection pegged the 12+ Hispanic population (the firgure Arbitron uses) at under 650,000. Claritas pegged it at just under 1 million. When the Census came out in 2001, the figure was within a couple of percent of the Claritas number, and a quarter of a million or more off the Census figure.

This is why I believe the Claritas / Market Statistics data much more than the Census, as it is cross tabbed with a variety of indicators that show much better the population. Similarly, efforts using random probability samples projected into the Claritas numbers, such as the study from Q3 2007 I mentioned, demonstrate that the Census estimates at this point 7 years after the Census are wrong, and the nature of the Puerto Rican idiosincrasy (my best translation of "la naturaleza de la idiosincrásia Puertorriqueña) makes many not show as Puerto Rican in conventionally conducted studies that use terms that are not liked or accepted by Boricuas.

While I did not look for this specific data point, younger/more recent Puerto Rican immigrants are more interested in integration with mainstream culture. This is another strike against a station that would target this demographic. This is likely again why you see such high hispanic support of Power 95-3. It's a mainstream station which has enough niche songs on its playlist to appease this culture.

One of the most popular formats across Latin America is American / English CHR songs with Spanish langauge announcing. So this is no different than what you find in Puerto Rico or Bogota or Santiago. At one time, in 1984, I counted 17 out of 24 FMs in Lima brroadcasting all mor mostly English music.

However, like everyone else, Hispanics use 3 to 4 radio stations each week, often in very similar amounts. If you are born in a culture, it is difficult to change music tastes after adolesence. At our Mexican oldies stations in the southwest, probably a quarter of callers perfer English or have "bad" kitchen Spanish. But they love the music, as they grew up on it in the home, and continue to like it as adults. I grew up on tropical and Spanish pop and traditional music... nothing in the world can equate my ability to use English with changing from likeing Willy Colon and El Gran Combo and Camilo Sesto and Los Corraleros de Majagual to Whitesnake and Ozzie and ZZ Topp (all of which I detest passionately). Assimilation and langauge usage have little correlation with music tastes.

I'm going to hope there was an error in the statement where you suggest the MARKET overall is 80% hispanic.

Typo. The market, meaning radio market, is about 21% Hispanic per Arbitron which means "per Claritas." I meant "over 20% Hispanic" and not "80%" of course. Much of the data we buy is the same as what Arbitron purchases, although Arbitron has its own staff of demographers, too, to adjust the numbers.

For the record, I am not averse to the Puerto Rican culture, my last girlfriend was Puerto Rican.

That sounds a lot like "I have lots of Black freiends so I am not a bigot..."

Still, from a business standpoint, launching another Spanish station on the FM would be irresponsible to shareholders.

It would not be a bad choice. There are likely about 14 Spanish langauge shares to be had, and there is upside because several viable formats are not being done. AM's really don't count as Hispanics use AM even less than non-Hispanics to the extent that the number of AMs is in rapid decline in many nations of Latin America. I think, based on experience in many other markets, that there are about 5 to 6 uncaptured shares out there and that is certainly better than the share or two the english formats that have been suggested might garner.

Dave, I would bet the roof over my head that I could program a Dance format in Orlando that would earn higher ratings than O-Rock's present format, however I am aware this format has a very low probability of being realized. But yes this is me being an armchair GM and I don't pretend it to be anything else. The point I was making was that if we're talking about launching niche formats that won't generate high ratings or high CUME (such as another Spanish station) then why shouldn't programmers consider this one?

Most people go to the experiences in other markets. If Miami could not sustain a dance station at a 3-share level, most other markets can not expect to break even into the high 1 share range. There are many safer choices, and any owner is going to research them all anyway. A Spanish language format is a definite possibility, and CBS has turned two turkeys into nice performers in Tampa and DC via its association with SBS (which it owns 10% of) and the assistance of SBS programmer Pio Ferro.

Surely a loyal listenership would be just as strong if not stronger than that which would be created from the launch of another niche format. Plus, I'm sure CBS radio would love sucking some life out of the thorn that WPYO is on WJHM (which did much better in ratings prior to Power's launch), and with the one-two punch of this proposed station and WJHM, they would likely accomplish this task.

With PPM coming in 2 years, owners know that the game is cume, not TSL. Dance may generate loyalty, but not good TSL. It is a "kiss of death" format for PPM.

 

[PhDance]

Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Dominicans, and any other nationality of Latin Americans do not have one predominant format any more than Americans do. Just as most US markets have country, AC, CHR, Rock, talk, oldies and a hybrids, so does each Latin American nation. I owned at one time 4 AMs and 5 FMs in Quito, Ecuador and I had different formats on each and could have filled in a couple of additonal voids if I had had the oppourtunity.

You bring up a valid point. There isn't an overall "Puerto Rican" format just like there isn't a "White" format. Still, comparing how many hispanic targeted formats there are in Latin countries is sort of irrelevant when comparing an area of a hispanic majority versus a hispanic minority. If a station can get more listeners by targeting a majority segment then that's what they are going to do.

This is why I believe the Claritas / Market Statistics data much more than the Census, as it is cross tabbed with a variety of indicators that show much better the population. Similarly, efforts using random probability samples projected into the Claritas numbers, such as the study from Q3 2007 I mentioned, demonstrate that the Census estimates at this point 7 years after the Census are wrong, and the nature of the Puerto Rican idiosincrasy (my best translation of "la naturaleza de la idiosincrásia Puertorriqueña) makes many not show as Puerto Rican in conventionally conducted studies that use terms that are not liked or accepted by Boricuas.

You can wax all day about how you feel the Census isn't capturing the true population, but advertisers and stakesholders aren't going to buy into that. They are going to pay attention to their tax-supported Census printout. I don't imagine walking into a conference room blurting out that the "Census is wrong" is going to garner much support for a proposed Spanish format either. By the time there is solid proof of ratings, speculation is irrelevant, and advertisers aren't going to bite unless they see the beef. That's what happenned in Philadelphia. Plus, if a hispanic citizen wants so badly to integrate into American culture that they won't even admit their true heritage on a piece of paper, what is the probability that they are going to record in an Arbitron diary that they were listening to Hispanic radio stations? Surely you see a parallel.

For the record, I am not averse to the Puerto Rican culture, my last girlfriend was Puerto Rican.

That sounds a lot like "I have lots of Black freiends so I am not a bigot..."

That would make sense if I said anything subjective against Puerto Ricans, however, I simply listed facts backed by research and then made an informed statement regarding the viability of a format based on that information. That research indicates that launching another spanish format is suicide. Having said that, if you know of any attractive young Puerto Rican women, I'd be happy to prove to them I have nothing but love for their culture.

 

[radio_connector]

Most people go to the experiences in other markets. If Miami could not sustain a dance station at a 3-share level, most other markets can not expect to break even into the high 1 share range. There are many safer choices, and any owner is going to research them all anyway. A Spanish language format is a definite possibility, and CBS has turned two turkeys into nice performers in Tampa and DC via its association with SBS (which it owns 10% of) and the assistance of SBS programmer Pio Ferro

First of David, once again 105.9 is not going Spanish, second SBS is not going to offer anyone any advice considering they are heading straight for a disaster in New York once Jimenez comes back in January. They blew that negotiation over 1 million dollars (they offered 4 million and he wanted 5 million), why would you think that CBS would listen to those clowns (classic radio fopau - Management thinking they are better programmers than Program Directors and DJ's that bring in the ratings). Thirdly, I know what they are going to do, I can't reveal it yet but it won't be Spanish. Great point about dance music I couldn't agree more, however, I really beleive that you overestimate the hispanic market in Orlando. They are not affluent, mostly blue collar workers from Puerto Rico and Mexico. So what are we to beleive? Here is what I beleive; one format that held it's own and now is being phazed out is alternative rock. West Palm Beach Alternative Rock station is struggling just as much as 105.9 so I expect them to flip that station as well...Likewise, I beleive the same will happen here with Spanish. There is a reason why Clear Channel is looking to unload there stations in Orlando. Granted I am not going to pin that just on Rumba but there is something to it...For you to even suggest that there is a 6 share still out there is and I apologize, rediculous that means with 98.1 4.5 share and Rumba's 8-9 share your implying that there is close to 20 hispanic shares in Orlando...WOW where are all these hispanics? What part of town do you live in? Again, that is a major major reach...one of the best way's I think to back up what I think is things like the festivals like Calle Orange, when I compare that to Calle 8 festival in Miami it's not even is the same stratasphere as far as number as people. There is hispanics in central florida but I am pretty tired of a few thinking or trying to make this out to be more than it is, it's not reality.