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CHICAGO ARBITRON PPM RATINGS RELEASED: OCTOBER 2010

I'm surprised no one has posted here... I guess I'll start off :p

What's going on with 103.5 KISS FM? They've been dropping down, not to mention B96 has been beating them badly in the recent months.
They should pull the plug on Fresh... they haven't gone up to a 2, not even the new PD can help this station. Probably Chicago can only handle one AC? Not to mention, The Score currently has a 2.3, if CBS flips Fresh then they could boost The Score up. CBS' other low-rated station 104.3 Jack FM is also down to a 2.1. What can they flip to? WBBM 780 does very well.
 
There is no reason (now) to simulcast WBBM on FM. The AM band is holding up in Chicago. Of course an amazing number of 24 hour 50KW stations (do not forget the low dial power of WIND), plus good ground conductivity helps. A lot of people think News Talk on FM is the answer for stale programming. Granted WSB is doing OK in Atlanta with their new FM, but Atlanta has on or the poorest sets of AM and FM signals of any major city. Clear Channel has yet to bring down KDKA in Pittsburgh with their FM talker. With the FCC determined to create a bunch of “community” class D’s by easing up on the “third adjacent” protection for FM C’s how long before the B’s get “close” neighbors too. That could end up messing with their fringe coverage. Coverage wise the big Chicago AM’s should remain strong if not stronger in the future. The next big “battle” is going to be internet delivery and apps anyways.
 
secondchoice said:
There is no reason (now) to simulcast WBBM on FM. The AM band is holding up in Chicago. Of course an amazing number of 24 hour 50KW stations (do not forget the low dial power of WIND), plus good ground conductivity helps. A lot of people think News Talk on FM is the answer for stale programming. Granted WSB is doing OK in Atlanta with their new FM, but Atlanta has on or the poorest sets of AM and FM signals of any major city. Clear Channel has yet to bring down KDKA in Pittsburgh with their FM talker. With the FCC determined to create a bunch of “community” class D’s by easing up on the “third adjacent” protection for FM C’s how long before the B’s get “close” neighbors too. That could end up messing with their fringe coverage. Coverage wise the big Chicago AM’s should remain strong if not stronger in the future. The next big “battle” is going to be internet delivery and apps anyways.

Moving news, talk, and/or sports to FM, or on an AM/FM simulcast, has been successful in Washington (WTOP), San Francisco (KCBS), Salt Lake City (KSL), Indianapolis (WIBC), Phoenix (KTAR), and Boston (WEEI). Granted, all but SLC and Phoenix were signal-challenged AM stations that no longer covered the entire market, and WBBM and the other Chicago blowtorches don't have that problem.

But coverage isn't the only issue - it's demographics. AM's audience is 55 to room temperature other than for sports. The audience for those stations mentioned above got 20 years younger with the move to FM; ratings and revenue increased at the same time. Folks younger than about 50 never listened to much AM. My generation (I'm 55) was the first that switched from AM to FM back around 1968, when the first FM rockers appeared. AM radio has been dying slowly ever since.

Eventually CBS, Tribune, Disney, and Citadel will have to decide whether a 50 kW transmitter sitting on prime real estate is really worth the expense as the AM audience dwindles. They'll have to move to FM eventually, which puts Tribune and Disney in a bind since they don't own FMs (and in Tribune's case, they can't without selling or shutting down Channel 9, AM 720, or the newspaper).
 
KeithE4 said:
Eventually CBS, Tribune, Disney, and Citadel will have to decide whether a 50 kW transmitter sitting on prime real estate is really worth the expense as the AM audience dwindles. They'll have to move to FM eventually, which puts Tribune and Disney in a bind since they don't own FMs (and in Tribune's case, they can't without selling or shutting down Channel 9, AM 720, or the newspaper).

Tribune needs better Lawyers. Cox in Atlanta has the only real newspaper, Channel 2, WSM 750 and a 98.5, 97.1 100KW FM’s and 95.5* and 104.7 which have good signals in Atlanta. Less than 75 miles away they have a cluster in Athens.

*95.5 is in the process of being moved to 98.5's tower which will improve their coverage in the Atlanta market
 
KeithE4 said:
Moving news, talk, and/or sports to FM, or on an AM/FM simulcast, has been successful in Washington (WTOP), San Francisco (KCBS), Salt Lake City (KSL), Indianapolis (WIBC), Phoenix (KTAR), and Boston (WEEI). Granted, all but SLC and Phoenix were signal-challenged AM stations that no longer covered the entire market, and WBBM and the other Chicago blowtorches don't have that problem.

What you've said about Boston isn't exactly correct. WEEI does not have an FM simulcast in Boston; it has FM affiliates in western MA, RI and ME - but in Boston it is still on a the highly directional 850 signal. Now, CBS Radio has decided to take on WEEI with an FM sports station that they built from scratch and the jury's still out on how successful it is. Last I checked, WEEI (with a signal that does not cover the whole market at night) still has more listeners than CBS' WBZ-FM. Of course, time can certainly change that.

Here in Chicago, I could still see CBS potentially smothering Fresh in favor of a WBBM simulcast. Jack is possible, but is less likely as it's been more profitable. But they are in no hurry as 780 still does quite well. That being said, a WBBM feed on a full-market FM stick would be a blockbuster.
 
BRNout said:
KeithE4 said:
Moving news, talk, and/or sports to FM, or on an AM/FM simulcast, has been successful in Washington (WTOP), San Francisco (KCBS), Salt Lake City (KSL), Indianapolis (WIBC), Phoenix (KTAR), and Boston (WEEI). Granted, all but SLC and Phoenix were signal-challenged AM stations that no longer covered the entire market, and WBBM and the other Chicago blowtorches don't have that problem.

What you've said about Boston isn't exactly correct. WEEI does not have an FM simulcast in Boston; it has FM affiliates in western MA, RI and ME - but in Boston it is still on a the highly directional 850 signal. Now, CBS Radio has decided to take on WEEI with an FM sports station that they built from scratch and the jury's still out on how successful it is. Last I checked, WEEI (with a signal that does not cover the whole market at night) still has more listeners than CBS' WBZ-FM. Of course, time can certainly change that.

Yes, you are correct about that. But how much of their audience is on the FMs (especially 103.7 Providence) compared to AM 850? I do think that, eventually, WBZ-FM will overtake WEEI. But having the Red Sox and Celtics gives WEEI the advantage as long as they can keep them.

Here in Chicago, I could still see CBS potentially smothering Fresh in favor of a WBBM simulcast. Jack is possible, but is less likely as it's been more profitable. But they are in no hurry as 780 still does quite well. That being said, a WBBM feed on a full-market FM stick would be a blockbuster.

It would certainly do a lot better in the downtown office buildings if it was on FM. I think The Score will simulcast on FM first, especially now that the Sox are starting their own programming on one of WJMK's HD channels.
 
secondchoice said:
KeithE4 said:
Eventually CBS, Tribune, Disney, and Citadel will have to decide whether a 50 kW transmitter sitting on prime real estate is really worth the expense as the AM audience dwindles. They'll have to move to FM eventually, which puts Tribune and Disney in a bind since they don't own FMs (and in Tribune's case, they can't without selling or shutting down Channel 9, AM 720, or the newspaper).

Tribune needs better Lawyers. Cox in Atlanta has the only real newspaper, Channel 2, WSM 750 and a 98.5, 97.1 100KW FM’s and 95.5* and 104.7 which have good signals in Atlanta. Less than 75 miles away they have a cluster in Athens.

*95.5 is in the process of being moved to 98.5's tower which will improve their coverage in the Atlanta market

I think at long last, Tribune could get an OK to buy an FM. Things have changed since they had to donate WFMT to Channel 11, 40 years ago. But even if they could, are there any FMs in the city (a suburban stick probably wouldn't work) for sale that Tribune or Disney could buy?
 
Now for the few people who have HD radios, WBBM-AM is available already on 105.9-2 & WSCR (The Score) is on 104.3-2. As I said, the few people who have HD radio. For the rest of us, that isn't an option right now. Like many people mention on here, FM talk radio is likely to be a reality sometime in the future, with smaller markets much more likely to go that route than Chicago will. Even for markets where there are 50kw blowtorches, some of those markets have poor ground conductivity (Minneapolis & Atlanta are 2 such markets), & their signals don't go out far. Chicago overall has good ground conductivity for their 50kw stations. Even for 5kw WIND, they go out far for 2 reasons: low end of the dial allows for the signal to go far, & because WIND's towers sit on a swamp & also along the Little Calumet River in Griffith Indiana. That benefits WIND a lot. Too bad Salem got rid of their FM station (even if it covered the northern suburbs). Somewhere down the line, they'll wish they had an FM station for WIND & possibly WYLL.
 
KeithE4 said:
Yes, you are correct about that. But how much of their audience is on the FMs (especially 103.7 Providence) compared to AM 850? I do think that, eventually, WBZ-FM will overtake WEEI. But having the Red Sox and Celtics gives WEEI the advantage as long as they can keep them.

Certainly true about those team rights being important. But WEEI has maintained the lead despite the end of baseball (for the Red Sox) and lack of basketball. And, during a period where WBZ-FM has the Pats. So personalities and loyalty still do count for something.

About WEEI-FM, that's a non-starter. Although it can be received in portions of the Boston area, it's not local in any portion of the market and is a Providence market station which rimshots Providence from the south. None of the other FMs can possibly be received anywhere in the Boston DMA. So, to answer your question, zero. All of the WEEI Boston market ratings are from 850.

KeithE4 said:
It would certainly do a lot better in the downtown office buildings if it was on FM. I think The Score will simulcast on FM first, especially now that the Sox are starting their own programming on one of WJMK's HD channels.

Absolutely! That office listening is particularly important in a PPM world. I won't say that the Score couldn't be the recipient of an FM frequency. Certainly could happen.

But my thought is financial: WBBM is the most expensive signal to run and would bring in the fastest ROI if simulcasted on FM. In other words, you'd grow more audience by putting WBBM on (for example) 105.9 than you would with WSCR which will always have a smaller audience. That's why my bet is that - if CBS simulcasts anything here - it would be WBBM. Along the lines of KCBS-FM and Bonneville's incredible success with WTOP-FM.

The caveat to this entire argument is that both WSCR and WBBM have very strong AM signals that do a fine job of covering the whole metro. Many of the examples of AM/FM simulcasts have AMs with some sort of signal handicap. That said, to me it still makes a lot of sense to toss WBBM on FM - it would kill in the ratings and lower the demos very quickly.
 
KeithE4 said:
But even if they could, are there any FMs in the city (a suburban stick probably wouldn't work) for sale that Tribune or Disney could buy?

Emmis has revealed that they would sell the chicago FMs and one of the NY FMs for the right price. So, there are signals available.
 
BRNout said:
The caveat to this entire argument is that both WSCR and WBBM have very strong AM signals that do a fine job of covering the whole metro. Many of the examples of AM/FM simulcasts have AMs with some sort of signal handicap. That said, to me it still makes a lot of sense to toss WBBM on FM - it would kill in the ratings and lower the demos very quickly.

There are only 2 all news stations in Top 10 markets on FM or in simulcasts.

WTOP's signal did not cover the DC metro day and night.

KCBS's AM signal covers very much more of the San Francisco market.

WTOP moved for coverage. KCBS started a simulcast due to demographics. Both were successful.
 
DavidEduardo said:
KeithE4 said:
But even if they could, are there any FMs in the city (a suburban stick probably wouldn't work) for sale that Tribune or Disney could buy?

Emmis has revealed that they would sell the chicago FMs and one of the NY FMs for the right price. So, there are signals available.

I heard that about New York, specifically concerning ESPN 1050, but not Chicago. Any station (indeed, any business) is for sale for the right price, though.
 
DavidEduardo said:
BRNout said:
The caveat to this entire argument is that both WSCR and WBBM have very strong AM signals that do a fine job of covering the whole metro. Many of the examples of AM/FM simulcasts have AMs with some sort of signal handicap. That said, to me it still makes a lot of sense to toss WBBM on FM - it would kill in the ratings and lower the demos very quickly.

There are only 2 all news stations in Top 10 markets on FM or in simulcasts.

WTOP's signal did not cover the DC metro day and night.

KCBS's AM signal covers very much more of the San Francisco market.

WTOP moved for coverage. KCBS started a simulcast due to demographics. Both were successful.

2 of 10 so far; however, some of the top 10 markets don't have all news stations: 2 have no all news station (Atlanta, Houston), a third just got one (Dallas/Ft. Worth). So, looking at it another way, that leaves New York, el Lay, Chicago and Philly as the only top 10's with AM-only all news stations. Just to play devil's advocate.... ;)

Let's discuss WSB in Atlanta (#7) for a moment. Not all news, but more of a news/talk hybrid that's as close to all-news as Atlanta gets. Same concept as our discussion in that Cox is taking a popular station and trying to make it more popular with younger demos by putting it on FM. Initial reports indicate that it has some traction.

Also, CBS just made a move in Dallas-Ft.Worth to all-news on KRLD 1080; perhaps in response to WBAP and it's move to simulcast on 96.7 FM. Prior to that, D/FW did not have an all-newser.

Any way you slice it, simulcasting WBBM on a full-market FM signal is a sure winner. Doing so with WSCR would probably be successful too, though I don't think nearly as successful as the WBBM simulcast idea.
 
BRNout said:
Let's discuss WSB in Atlanta (#7) for a moment. Not all news, but more of a news/talk hybrid that's as close to all-news as Atlanta gets. Same concept as our discussion in that Cox is taking a popular station and trying to make it more popular with younger demos by putting it on FM. Initial reports indicate that it has some traction.

It doubled, mostly with 35-54 and longer TSL... both FM contributions. But Atlanta is one of those low-AM-share markets (down to a 1 share 12+ and half that in 25-54 prior to the WSB move. Add in the fact that the area has about the worst ground conductivity of any major metro and its a perfect place for a news/talk station to add FM.

LA has a higher AM share, more like a 16. But KFI, which is the most similar to WSB (talker with lots of very well done news) has good coverage due to good condutivity and the fact that all news, even on a big signal, only accouts for around 3 shares in LA.

Chicago AM shares are around 22... likely in part because no city other than Chicago has 4 former 1-A clear channel stations and the area has extremely good conductivity. And, under Arbitron's 55/15 rule, that has made the market bigger than any FM covers well, yet it is covered by the good AM signals. DC, on the other hand, was defined by the FM coverage, not AM. A total opposite.

Also, CBS just made a move in Dallas-Ft.Worth to all-news on KRLD 1080; perhaps in response to WBAP and it's move to simulcast on 96.7 FM. Prior to that, D/FW did not have an all-newser.

Like Houston and LA, it remains to be seen if all news can succeed.

Any way you slice it, simulcasting WBBM on a full-market FM signal is a sure winner.

If there were any full market FMs in Chicago, that would be different. The Hancock or Sears FMs put a 64 dbu over Cook and part of DuPage. The AMs do a 5 over the whole 11 county metro and a 10 over nearly all of it. The real question is whether the gain would generate more sales... or protect from erosion... to the extent that it justifies killing the billing of the FM that would be used.
 
CBS hasn't had much success simulcasting their news/talk station in Las Vegas. Prior to simulcast, KXNT-AM had a 2.3, Jack-FM had a 2.8. After simulcasting for a couple of months, the AM has a 2.0, KXNT-FM has a 0.8. (They're not all simulcast, some separate programming on weekends, so they're not listed together in the ratings.)

In Las Vegas, the AM has a good signal, the FM does too, not a rimshot.
 
KeithE4 said:
DavidEduardo said:
KeithE4 said:
But even if they could, are there any FMs in the city (a suburban stick probably wouldn't work) for sale that Tribune or Disney could buy?

Emmis has revealed that they would sell the chicago FMs and one of the NY FMs for the right price. So, there are signals available.

I heard that about New York, specifically concerning ESPN 1050, but not Chicago. Any station (indeed, any business) is for sale for the right price, though.

It's being suggested that Emmis is reportedly planning to ask $100MM for WRXP (101.9 FM) plus $50MM each for its two Chicago FMs. At that price, especially for WRXP, no one will even kick the tires! :)
 
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