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CITADEL AND SALEM MAKE MOODY'S BOTTOM RUNG LIST
- Thread starter congsec51
- Start date
Don't forget Radio One and Sirius/XM.
"TheBigA" will be along any moment to tell us how that's a "good thing"...
"TheBigA" will be along any moment to tell us how that's a "good thing"...
But being overly optimistic on a "new asset class" (mortgage-backed securities) and being bearish on companies whose cash flow is dangerous are two very different things.
Moody's entire list of 268 companies on the bottom rung are here:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/st_moodysratings_03092009_20090309.html
This is a monthly list...
Here are all the major broadcasting companies that made it...
Citadel Broadcasting
Cumulus Media
Emmis Communications
Radio One
Regent Broadcasting
Salem Communications
Sirius XM
Spanish Broadcasting Systems (SBS)
Univision Communications
Clear Channel is not on the list but Moody's did cut the company's ratings to a deeply speculative grade and warned that it may be likely to breach terms in its bank loans this year and seek to restructure its debt --as in bankruptcy. The company is now stacked with $23 billion in rated debt.
http://www.moodys.com/moodys/cust/r...rameOfRef=corporate&namedEntity=Rating+Action
Some believe Citadel and Cumulus are going Chapter 11. Others think Clear Channel will join that party, too. I don't know what Jim Cramer thinks but I do have an old Harpo Marx foghorn.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/st_moodysratings_03092009_20090309.html
This is a monthly list...
Here are all the major broadcasting companies that made it...
Citadel Broadcasting
Cumulus Media
Emmis Communications
Radio One
Regent Broadcasting
Salem Communications
Sirius XM
Spanish Broadcasting Systems (SBS)
Univision Communications
Clear Channel is not on the list but Moody's did cut the company's ratings to a deeply speculative grade and warned that it may be likely to breach terms in its bank loans this year and seek to restructure its debt --as in bankruptcy. The company is now stacked with $23 billion in rated debt.
http://www.moodys.com/moodys/cust/r...rameOfRef=corporate&namedEntity=Rating+Action
Some believe Citadel and Cumulus are going Chapter 11. Others think Clear Channel will join that party, too. I don't know what Jim Cramer thinks but I do have an old Harpo Marx foghorn.
Told you all somewhere on one of the boards (in early 07 maybe?, you look it up if you want) that it was all a house of cards. Also suggested that the Dow as a whole was way over valued and would go to somewhere between 6500 and 7500 (that may have been a diff board) back in fall of 07. The entire model was crap as we all now see. You folks are radio people and are supposed to understand human nature pretty well; because of human nature, unregulated capitalism becomes greed very quickly. It wasn't hard to see it all coming a long time ago, you just needed to open your eyes.
Speaking of Cramer, wasn't the Jon Stewart spanking last night excellently done? Jon Stewart, don't know why but I love that name :
.
Speaking of Cramer, wasn't the Jon Stewart spanking last night excellently done? Jon Stewart, don't know why but I love that name :
.They really can't go Chapter 11. Not without screwing themselves. The Dickeys own a majority of Cumulus stock, and they can't let it go to zero. Disney can't afford to let Citadel off the hook. Bain & Lee have too much of their money invested. They can't afford to let it all go. Nope. Bankruptcy is easy. What these companies have to do is hard. They have to get costs under control, and find new sources of revenue. Quickly.
If it wasn't for the fact that there's competition out there ready to take advantage of programming cuts by people like Citadel, Cumulus, Clear Channel, etc., they might have a chance to pull that off. As it is, programming cuts are already affecting ratings, and ratings are sending revenue even lower. The people cutting the fewest talent are reaping the biggest revenue rewards.
The Dickeys, Farid, the Mays mafia, and the rest of the "geniuses" who got radio into this mess have already stuffed their pockets with millions and millions of dollars. Yes, they'll take a hit when the stock goes under, but they've already got plenty of cushion to land on after they inflate their platinum parachutes.
Hemorrhaging talent doesn't "bring costs under control", it reduces revenue even further. Stop the bleeding. The cash flow and falling value of their properties says that coming back from the debt load already on the books is a fantasy. Stop paying those "geniuses" millions, stop firing good people who ARE the value left in those properties, and let the Bankruptcy court do its job. To paraphrase a campaign phrase, "It's the DEBT, stupid."
The Dickeys, Farid, the Mays mafia, and the rest of the "geniuses" who got radio into this mess have already stuffed their pockets with millions and millions of dollars. Yes, they'll take a hit when the stock goes under, but they've already got plenty of cushion to land on after they inflate their platinum parachutes.
Hemorrhaging talent doesn't "bring costs under control", it reduces revenue even further. Stop the bleeding. The cash flow and falling value of their properties says that coming back from the debt load already on the books is a fantasy. Stop paying those "geniuses" millions, stop firing good people who ARE the value left in those properties, and let the Bankruptcy court do its job. To paraphrase a campaign phrase, "It's the DEBT, stupid."
SirRoxalot said:
Nope. The revenue was falling when they were operating with full staffs. There is no connection between the size of a station's staff and the revenue they make. If all it took to make great radio and more money was a warm local body behind the mic, no one would get fired. There is no such connection.
They need to get costs under control. People don't value content. They expect it for free. Free music, free radio, free entertainment with NO COMMERCIALS. How do you pay a staff with that business model?
The people you call the "geniuses" are not the ones making this decision. It's the REAL money men at all those companies who will not let them go bankrupt. There are people who OWN that debt. As I said, bankruptcy would be easy. This isn't easy.
The revenue's falling faster now. Local talent is more than a "warm body". It's the connection to the listeners. Cutting talent cuts connections, and cutting connections cuts revenues even more. People expect MORE than "just music". That's what "the geniuses" never understood.
The people who OWN that debt are watching the money they've invested bringing in a smaller and smaller return. The law of diminishing returns says that there's a time to cut the losses, take what you can get, and reinvest in something that CAN bring in a greater profit.
According to your previous posts, radio's "over with" anyway. It's time for the money men to get out and move on to something more lucrative.
The people who OWN that debt are watching the money they've invested bringing in a smaller and smaller return. The law of diminishing returns says that there's a time to cut the losses, take what you can get, and reinvest in something that CAN bring in a greater profit.
According to your previous posts, radio's "over with" anyway. It's time for the money men to get out and move on to something more lucrative.
SirRoxalot said:
We're in a depression. No one is buying advertising. Traditional advertisers, like car companies, are going out of business. It doesn't matter how large a station's staff is. The money is at a standstill.
SirRoxalot said:
Like what? Google is down over 50% since the summer. It's a depression. There is nothing that can bring in greater profit.
Most of these companies will refinance in a way that give the money people more equity and more control. It's already starting to happen.
SirRoxalot said:
Wrong. OLD radio is over with.
If anyone thinks a bankruptcy court is going to stuff radio stations with warm bodies, dream on! As far as new owners getting them for pennies on the dollar and then stuffing them with warm bodies, that's unlikely too. Why? Financing is going to come from somewhere, and whoever is capitalizing the station wants low expenses and a return on investment as well. There is no proof that DJs in and of themselves bring in revenue, with very few exceptions.
Radio really doesn't operate in some alternate world where the laws of economics don't apply.
Radio really doesn't operate in some alternate world where the laws of economics don't apply.
I'm starting to think we all live in an alternate world where the laws of economics fail to apply.
The list below represents media companies who overpaid for stations and have more debt than they'll ever be able to payoff. The current depression and new media has helped them. Bankrupt radio will correct everything and maybe new blood with come back to radio who are committed to running stations..
These morons had hopes of selling to any sucker and taking the money.. Clear Channel found theirs..
I'm sure Bain Lee wants their money back.. as they were sold a lie..
Citadel Broadcasting
Cumulus Media
Emmis Communications
Radio One
Regent Broadcasting
Salem Communications
Sirius XM
Spanish Broadcasting Systems (SBS)
Univision Communications
Clear Channel
These morons had hopes of selling to any sucker and taking the money.. Clear Channel found theirs..
I'm sure Bain Lee wants their money back.. as they were sold a lie..
Citadel Broadcasting
Cumulus Media
Emmis Communications
Radio One
Regent Broadcasting
Salem Communications
Sirius XM
Spanish Broadcasting Systems (SBS)
Univision Communications
Clear Channel
pocket-radio said:
If that was only true, it would be easy to accomplish, especially from the current threshhold. As I've said, bankruptcy is an easy way out. Most of the companies on this list can't do it. The people in power have vested interests that prevent them from allowing it to happen. And even if any of them did, it wouldn't change a thing. the "maybe new blood" line is a very big maybe, and assumes they would do things better than the current crop. The devil you know is always better than the devil you don't. Roll the dice, and you could lose it all.
The fact is that there is no one better than Jeff Smulyan or Bill Stakelin in running stations. No one could do a better job, or be more committed to the success of their companies than they. Neither of them are morons, neither of them overpaid for their stations, and neither of them are in this for the short haul. And yet their companies are on this list.
Wait a minute. Aren't you the one who advocated that Citadel/ABC effectively kill all local programming and feed their satellite formats to their stations nationwide?
"The devil you know is always better than the devil you don't" just ain't so. We've seen what the current crop of greedy bastards are willing to do to the medium. The care NOTHING about radio as an industry. They ONLY care about profit, and they've even screwed THAT up.
Bankruptcy at least gives radio as an industry a chance to compete with other technologies. The debt load is the killer, and until that debt is resolved, radio doesn't stand a chance. Chapter 11 gives the biggest creditors a chance to screw everybody else and have a chance to get their investment back. Meanwhile, "the geniuses" collect millions by stalling and delaying the inevitable. It's like a murderer refusing to allow doctors to pull the plug on a brain dead victim.
"The devil you know is always better than the devil you don't" just ain't so. We've seen what the current crop of greedy bastards are willing to do to the medium. The care NOTHING about radio as an industry. They ONLY care about profit, and they've even screwed THAT up.
Bankruptcy at least gives radio as an industry a chance to compete with other technologies. The debt load is the killer, and until that debt is resolved, radio doesn't stand a chance. Chapter 11 gives the biggest creditors a chance to screw everybody else and have a chance to get their investment back. Meanwhile, "the geniuses" collect millions by stalling and delaying the inevitable. It's like a murderer refusing to allow doctors to pull the plug on a brain dead victim.
SirRoxalot said:
No. Someone asked how more people they could lay off. I said they COULD lay off all local DJs. But I'm not advocating it. Just pointing out that they have that option.
HOWEVER, if they did, they'd have to give some of the revenue to the ABC Radio division, which means the local station and GM would lose a lot of money, and it would count against their annual numbers. Not the kind of thing that a GM would want to encourage. Unless he wants to get fired.
SirRoxalot said:
No it doesn't. Because the other technologies also have debt too.
What would give radio a chance to compete with other technologies is if it somehow found a way to become interactive. Other technologies have far less regulation, so that would allow radio to compete better. The fact is people prefer their cell phones to radio. Not because of programming, but because it's interactive. Bankruptcy didn't help United Air Lines to compete better with Southwest. In fact, they're on Moody's list AGAIN. Did bankruptcy help K Mart compete better with Wal Mart? Did it even have a chance? You really need to learn more about this bankruptcy thing you keep advocating.
SirRoxalot said:
The fact is that even companies that have solved their debt problem are still having problems because of the terrible advertising market. It's an interesting problem, far more complex than what you say.
SirRoxalot said:
As I've pointed out, the people who could make that decision, the ones on the Board of Directors, have the most to lose. They'll face lawsuits and their own personal fortunes will be put at risk. And in most cases, they own large chunks of the stock. So they will continue to buy the stock, prop it up, and try to rise out the storm.
Maybe it's just me but it seems that there are many opinions as to what radio "should" do to turn itself around. Hire good talent, make stations more local, open up playlists, and many more. I've seen stations who've hired good talent but listeners didn't like them. I've seen stations go local and live 24/7, but listeners didn't care. I've seen wider playlists and folks still wanted their ipods.
It seems to me that the only way any radio company is ever going to make any kind of money at all is to cater to the one thing they seem to always forget...THE LISTENERS! Listeners give ratings (although that by itself doesn't guarantee $$$). Listeners talk up stations (word of mouth is still a strong motivator for any listener). Listeners show up at events (if they like the station and it's personalities). Yet most every radio company is focused on catering to the ADVERTISERS because that's where the money comes from.
I understand basic business that you must make more money than you spend but it just seems to me, from a basic level, that if your station has the listeners your advertisers want, and they have a history of buying products your station advertises, you'd want to be on that station, right? Yes, money is tight now. I get that but I have always subscribed to the notion that if you want to make money, you've got to be willing to spend some also. Not wildly, of course (as most radio companies have done for far too long and with little success), but prudently. A station should know their market. Most large companies know their stations (specifically with revenue) but stations should know their markets. That seems not to be the case anymore.
If any station wants to be competitive, find out what it would take to lure listeners back to the medium. Then DO IT! It may cost some $$$ but if you, like most investors, think LONG TERM, the results should be worth it.
It seems to me that the only way any radio company is ever going to make any kind of money at all is to cater to the one thing they seem to always forget...THE LISTENERS! Listeners give ratings (although that by itself doesn't guarantee $$$). Listeners talk up stations (word of mouth is still a strong motivator for any listener). Listeners show up at events (if they like the station and it's personalities). Yet most every radio company is focused on catering to the ADVERTISERS because that's where the money comes from.
I understand basic business that you must make more money than you spend but it just seems to me, from a basic level, that if your station has the listeners your advertisers want, and they have a history of buying products your station advertises, you'd want to be on that station, right? Yes, money is tight now. I get that but I have always subscribed to the notion that if you want to make money, you've got to be willing to spend some also. Not wildly, of course (as most radio companies have done for far too long and with little success), but prudently. A station should know their market. Most large companies know their stations (specifically with revenue) but stations should know their markets. That seems not to be the case anymore.
If any station wants to be competitive, find out what it would take to lure listeners back to the medium. Then DO IT! It may cost some $$$ but if you, like most investors, think LONG TERM, the results should be worth it.
Surfer said:
The problem is that "the listeners" don't act as a mass any more. In the old days, rock music fans liked rock music, and of you played any kind of rock music, they'd listen. They wouldn't like all of it, but they'd listen. Now people are fans of specific acts, they only want to hear those acts, and when you play anything else, they shut the station off. Hard to run a radio station when the listeners have no tolerance for other people's favorites. Broadcasting doesn't work when people want narrowcasting.
There are still a few formats that work. Conservative talk appeals to a mass of listeners. Country music usually works. Formats that target older listeners work, like classic rock and oldies.
Surfer said:
I don't think that's the issue here. Radio stations and their parent companies spend millions on research finding out what the listeners want. And they pretty much know. Every radio station I've ever worked at has a profile of who listens, and when I went to station events, that profile was dead on correct. They know what their listeners like, the way they use the media, and what those same listeners don't like.
Radio stations don't research the entire country, but their specific markets. Even with all the cutbacks, radio stations still have local staffs. They know their markets. They're involved in community events, and hear what the local people say. That hasn't changed. What's changed is the "Balkinization" of the local audience. They want what they want when they want it, and they want it for free and without any commercials. That's a very different situation than what radio faced before.
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