Classic Hits: Evolution or Revolution?

[CTListener]

Essentially - the old diary method. Guessing whether or not a person's word is accurate.

The "old" diary method is used today in nearly 250 markets.

In recruiting respondents for a music test, the only interest is finding people in the right demographic group who indicate that they listen enough to your station (or its direct format competitors).

A test recruit is not intended to replace ratings... just to find people who listen enough to be familiar with the music and thus able to score the songs.

Once recruits arrive for a test, they are rescreened via a check-in procedure, and then their responses to demographic and listening questions are taken in the test. It is not unusual to have 5% or so "pay and send" respondents who are not allowed to get to the music part of a test.

There is not just one way to recruit. Often, we use music samples (in sets called "pods") and potential recruits listen to a number of pods, and if they like or love a certain number of them, they get invited to the test. In those cases, the station use question may not even be asked.

Just curious ... If a recruit indicates that he/she listens to satellite radio's classic hits/oldies channels in addition to the local FMs -- which may indicate an anti-"burnout" prejudice -- does he/she have any chance of getting to the music part of the test? Or don't you ask about satellite?

 

[michael hagerty]

And given there's a discrepancy in the WXRT billing figures, David, I'd love to hear the latest on WJMK.

Again, I don't know Chicago well, but wouldn't WLS-FM be comparable to KRTH, too? How's their billing? What's the combined billing for the two?

WJMK did just under $10 in 2011.

BIA has not released data yet for 2012. And those of us with access to Miller Kaplan are under a nondisclosure and can't talk about what we may or may not know about 2012.

Chicago has two "classic hits" type stations, WLS-FM and WJMK. They seem to get about a 4.5 share total in 25-54. By comparison, KRTH gets something around high 2's and low 3's for the same general format type. CBS-FM in New York gets somewhere in the 5's. So each market seems to have a different percentage of partisans of the format.

But, returning to Chicago, we see that with two stations, the shares and the revenue are split. Nobody wins.

Allowing WXRT, an exceptional station in the AAA field, to outbill the Classic Hits station. An atypical situation in most other markets.

 

[davideduardo]

Just curious ... If a recruit indicates that he/she listens to satellite radio's classic hits/oldies channels in addition to the local FMs -- which may indicate an anti-"burnout" prejudice -- does he/she have any chance of getting to the music part of the test? Or don't you ask about satellite?

I have never had a recruit spontaneously identify a satellite channel as their "favorite station... the one you listen to the most." Nor have those channels come up as "... and your next favorite..."

Stations are not asked about. Listeners must spontaneously mention them.

They do mention Pandora. And if they use a prefabricated Pandora channel that is similar to the test format, they get invited. They are potential listeners.

But that is my preferred method... others may do it differently. There are dozens of companies that do music tests, and a variety of recruit techniques and procedures.

 

[Biondi4Mayor]

When a AAA station in the #3 market bills $18.4 Million, and a classic hits station with the playlist of songs you defend bills $7.8 million, then this unprofitable "niche" just made twice as much as you'd expect.

Where are your figures from? They don't match MK and they don't match BIA.

WXRT billed $25 million in 2005, and was under $15 million in 2011. That's off by a much larger percentage than the market, which was off by about 20% ($600 million to $487 million) for the same years.

Initial figures show Chicago off about 2% for 2012.

My figures are 2012, reported by Robert Feder, media journalist. In other words, his job depends on accuracy.
http://timeoutchicago.com/arts-cult...-how-chicago-radio-revenue-stacked-up-in-2012

Combine WLS and WJMK however you want, it still is equal to AAA (a dark horse, loyalty format). WLS made $10.6 Million, spending 9 months of the year with strong 55+, now they've dumped that to chase a smaller piece of the pie - smart move :

 

[Biondi4Mayor]

And given there's a discrepancy in the WXRT billing figures, David, I'd love to hear the latest on WJMK.

Again, I don't know Chicago well, but wouldn't WLS-FM be comparable to KRTH, too? How's their billing? What's the combined billing for the two?

WJMK did just under $10 in 2011.

BIA has not released data yet for 2012. And those of us with access to Miller Kaplan are under a nondisclosure and can't talk about what we may or may not know about 2012.

Chicago has two "classic hits" type stations, WLS-FM and WJMK. They seem to get about a 4.5 share total in 25-54. By comparison, KRTH gets something around high 2's and low 3's for the same general format type. CBS-FM in New York gets somewhere in the 5's. So each market seems to have a different percentage of partisans of the format.

But, returning to Chicago, we see that with two stations, the shares and the revenue are split. Nobody wins.

Allowing WXRT, an exceptional station in the AAA field, to outbill the Classic Hits station. An atypical situation in most other markets.

Again, run the numbers.

 

[PirateJohnny]

That's what I get for googling "KRTH playlog". I found the correct one on KRTH's website. Wonder how that other site is off two hours and one minute.

Could that by any chance be the difference between your local time and the station's local time?

The time difference is the same as that of the two websites, but the minutes portion is also off by different amounts between the two hours. Maybe the site I found logged the stream as it was heard.

...
I don't have that LP, so I don't know exactly when the fade begins. I'm guessing that "Hey Jude," in addition to being a "bathroom song," was also especially popular for back-timing into the network news at the top of the hour! ;D

A quick story about a jock at 15WLAC (AM) in Nashville. In the mid 70s all music was carted and the cart machines would sequentially fire the next. A jock loaded a "bathroom sequence" ending with Hey Jude. He was still "occupied" when he heard Hey Jude start playing, at the 5:00 mark where another jock had pulled the cart after fading it out early.

In the past when I talked to tour groups at a TV station where I worked I explained that "The business of broadcasting is providing an audience for your advertiser's message". You do what it takes to provide the biggest (TV or radio) audience. Alienating the fewest possible listeners keeps that audience as large as possible.

 

[davideduardo]

My figures are 2012, reported by Robert Feder, media journalist. In other words, his job depends on accuracy.

Having programmed both AM and FM in Chicago, I know who Feder is.

The figures that groups report to MK are cluster revenues and the cluster operator can distribute them however they like, and it is often hard to segregate the real numbers. I know of one case where an owner had 3 FMs in a major market, each with very different ratings... but they reported a third of the total revenue for each station to MK, even though that was impossible.

Combine WLS and WJMK however you want, it still is equal to AAA (a dark horse, loyalty format). WLS made $10.6 Million, spending 9 months of the year with strong 55+, now they've dumped that to chase a smaller piece of the pie - smart move :

There are a number of heritage AAA stations that do extremely well. The fact that one of the most heritage AAA's of all has decent ratings and fairly good revenue is not unusual and certainly not "dark horse" status.

Were only one of the two classic hits to remain in the format, the remaining one would likely get over a 3 share... maybe even a low 4. And they would outbill the AAA station.

Here is what happens: A 4 share in 25-54 gets you considered for just about every buy because agencies only buy 5, 6, 8 or maybe 10 stations deep for most buys. If you chop the 4 share into two pieces, and neither station is in the top 10 or even the top 15, neither gets considered for the buy.

Further, if there is loads of duplication, when the agency does reach and frequency analysis, they kick one of the two stations off the buy if they somehow manages to get there.

WXRT has a less duplicated format than the two classic hits variants. And it made it through much of the year around a 4 share 25-54. While they took a dive later in the year, buys are not made based on one survey... they are based on averages.

 

[michael hagerty]

And given there's a discrepancy in the WXRT billing figures, David, I'd love to hear the latest on WJMK.

Again, I don't know Chicago well, but wouldn't WLS-FM be comparable to KRTH, too? How's their billing? What's the combined billing for the two?

WJMK did just under $10 in 2011.

BIA has not released data yet for 2012. And those of us with access to Miller Kaplan are under a nondisclosure and can't talk about what we may or may not know about 2012.

Chicago has two "classic hits" type stations, WLS-FM and WJMK. They seem to get about a 4.5 share total in 25-54. By comparison, KRTH gets something around high 2's and low 3's for the same general format type. CBS-FM in New York gets somewhere in the 5's. So each market seems to have a different percentage of partisans of the format.

But, returning to Chicago, we see that with two stations, the shares and the revenue are split. Nobody wins.

Allowing WXRT, an exceptional station in the AAA field, to outbill the Classic Hits station. An atypical situation in most other markets.

Again, run the numbers.

That's what the numbers say.

 

[michael hagerty]

When a AAA station in the #3 market bills $18.4 Million, and a classic hits station with the playlist of songs you defend bills $7.8 million, then this unprofitable "niche" just made twice as much as you'd expect.

Where are your figures from? They don't match MK and they don't match BIA.

WXRT billed $25 million in 2005, and was under $15 million in 2011. That's off by a much larger percentage than the market, which was off by about 20% ($600 million to $487 million) for the same years.

Initial figures show Chicago off about 2% for 2012.

My figures are 2012, reported by Robert Feder, media journalist. In other words, his job depends on accuracy.
http://timeoutchicago.com/arts-cult...-how-chicago-radio-revenue-stacked-up-in-2012

Combine WLS and WJMK however you want, it still is equal to AAA (a dark horse, loyalty format). WLS made $10.6 Million, spending 9 months of the year with strong 55+, now they've dumped that to chase a smaller piece of the pie - smart move :

Strong 55+ won't get you much money and scares off a lot of agency buys. Even if the increase in 25-54 doesn't make up for the raw number of 55+ bodies blown off, it will still be more salable.

It's a smaller fraction of a much richer pie, in other words. A quarter of a $50 steak as opposed to a whole Big Mac.

 

[michael hagerty]

Speaking of "reckless" WCBS played "Shame" by Evelyn Champagne King this afternoon. Got my attention.
What do you know, a rare one, an R&B/Disco one, and it's by a female. These songs can work!

This just in: KRTH plays "Shame", too.

 

[michael hagerty]

No, David...MacArthur Park stopped getting airplay in Los Angeles long before Pico & Alvarado got really grim. It's another one of those songs that didn't make it to the recurrent or gold libraries, but pretty much faded away as soon as its chart run was over.

Does the disco version even get airplay in L.A.? I can understand the 7 minute Harris version.

The Donna Summer? Yes. KRTH plays it.

 

[amfmsw]

Regarding music testing: i think auditorium testing is too small a sample, and too small a number of song choices while too expensive.

I think this is the way to do it in 2013: http://rbr.com/ldr-reports-1-7-million-song-votes-so-far-on-97x/

and when that group of 1800 is weeded, drop the weakest 250, put the next 250 in a lunar, and add another 500 to test. Then there's only 10,000 to go.

 

[firepoint525]

Back timing involves starting the record off the air and fading into it so that the record ends just in time for the legal ID/news open. Usually, it was when you didn't have a record short enough. Back timing "Hey Jude" would then just get you the "Na Na Na" part for 90 seconds or so, making it a bad choice.
By the 70s, few Top 40s allowed the practice. You were expected to think ahead and adjust the length of a live PSA or weather so that coming out of the last stopset of the hour, the songs remaining would take you exactly to where you needed to be.

I never really had any serious problems with back-timing. It came fairly easily for me.

I was (sort of) joking about the use of "Hey Jude" as a song to go into the news with, but I believe that it brings up another interesting issue: that of song length. Most programmers don't really like extremely long (or for that matter, short) songs because it upsets their clock, or their rotation. Far better that nearly everything falls within the 3-4 minute range. For the handful of longer songs, there are roughly the same number of shorter songs to keep everything in balance.

 

[firepoint525]

I was reminded again by this just about a year ago. A lot of Classic Hits stations have been added more 80's - understandable. Artists like Prince, Madonna, and MJ have hit the playlist. Yet of all the BIG 80's hits - one crucial character was missing. Aside from a spin or two on an AC or Urban station - Whitney Houston was ignored from the bunch. Suddenly, she dies and all stations rush to add a few songs - again neglecting even some #1's. Now with that "fad" gone, airplay has once again been reduced. So, was Whitney getting tested? Sure WCBS may spin "I Wanna Dance With Somebody" and "How Will I Know" occasionly (they did at 3something this morning) AFTER the fact, but again a MAJOR artist was/is (in many areas) still getting ignored.
It took her death to get airplay, not testing.

I heard, I think it was "Didn't We Almost Have It All" on Mix 92.9, the AC station here in Nashville, the day after her death, but I don't recall hearing much else, save for "I Will Always Love You" which was in heavy rotation prior to her death, and has apparently remained so. And in all the celeb newsmagazine stories (in particular) about her death, they played the very shrillest part of "I Will Always Love You," the key change about 2/3 of the way through the song! :

Interesting to remember that "Didn't We Almost Have It All" got excessive airplay while it was a hit, to the point that there was even a Whitney Houston parody song, "Don't My Songs All Sound the Same." : Now we almost never hear "Didn't We..." Not that I am complaining about that or anything. I got enough of it (and then some) while it was a hit. And Whitney was one of those, who during that 1987-1988 time frame had multiple singles from her album getting airplay, meaning that there was just no real break from hearing Whitney Houston on the radio back then.

If she had lived another 10 years or so, her death probably would have been almost entirely ignored by radio. Her music would have aged out of the format by then. Seems like it was already headed that direction anyway.

 

[davideduardo]

Regarding music testing: i think auditorium testing is too small a sample,

Sample size validity is verified by replication: does another group of the same size, selected at the same time, the same way and with the same content, yield the same results.

A good 100 person sample is absolutely adequate.

and too small a number of song choices while too expensive.

In many formats, like CHR, the number of songs is too many. In others, stations do two sessions on consecutive days (or broken up in the case of web testing). I've tested as many as 1,350 song at a time.

It costs what it costs because you can't get a true sample to sit through 3 to 5 hours worth of hoods over one or two evenings without paying them. About half the cost of a test is recruiting and incentives.

I think this is the way to do it in 2013: http://rbr.com/ldr-reports-1-7-million-song-votes-so-far-on-97x/

And how many of those are the same people voting over and over and over and over and over? There is absolutely no control of the sample.

and when that group of 1800 is weeded, drop the weakest 250, put the next 250 in a lunar, and add another 500 to test. Then there's only 10,000 to go.

There is no format that really has 1,800 hits. There even 1,000 is a big stretch. When you go to numbers that big, you are playing huge, huge percentages of stiffs.

The concept is very cool, integrating new media in multiple ways. But it still comes down to whether it will produce a listenable radio station for the majority of people who do not feel a need to vote on every song or interact with the station. Some people just want to hear music...

But Tampa is a PPM market, and we will know soon whether the concept is working, ratings wise, or not. It would be quite revolutionary should it have ratings impact and staying power.

 

[Biondi4Mayor]

From LA Thread -

Classic hits stations are not museums... they are slices of life that can be relived at the press of a button.

And yet museums can still attract younger groups of people with ever changing exhibits alongside timeless attractions that you can count on being there.

The moaning and whining is, in essence, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And so is testing...test the same songs over, you get the same playlist. Remember your "Groundhog Day" comment about having to re-explain everything to us "delusional fanatics" ---I found that comment ironic, because whenever I turn on the radio it's always the same playlists - not unlike the movie.
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Regarding "Shame" - OK you found one good one, but we knew that after WCBS played it, KRTH had it on the same day as well. But how many other stations are playing it? Not in my area most certainly.
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Between the years 1970-1989 Billboard logged 484 #1 hits, add the years 1964-1969 if you want for an additional 124 equalling 608. Don't trust Billboard?....Record World logged 498 in the same time frame before ceasing production in 1982.

If all #1's were tested in a 1000 song test, it would roughly take up half. Of course, other songs would be tested as well, far exceeding the amount of songs to reach the #1 benchmark. Therefore, there is not enough time, room, or money to accurately ensure all the hits are getting tested.

 

[Biondi4Mayor]

If she had lived another 10 years or so, her death probably would have been almost entirely ignored by radio. Her music would have aged out of the format by then. Seems like it was already headed that direction anyway.

Sorry, can't agree. If classic hits is moving more 80's heavy, then her songs are perfect for the mix. If she's aging out now, then all the Eagles, Bob Seager, and Journey records should have already exited.

 

[firepoint525]

If she had lived another 10 years or so, her death probably would have been almost entirely ignored by radio. Her music would have aged out of the format by then. Seems like it was already headed that direction anyway.

Sorry, can't agree. If classic hits is moving more 80's heavy, then her songs are perfect for the mix. If she's aging out now, then all the Eagles, Bob Seager, and Journey records should have already exited.

Well, they almost ignored her anyway. I remember looking at the AC station's (her home format, btw) playlist a day or two after her death, and only seeing the occasional sprinkling of her songs in there. Another 10 years, and you wouldn't have even had that much. She didn't get anywhere near the airplay that Michael Jackson got right after his death, and she was nearly as big as he was, and during much of the same time frame.

 

[michael hagerty]

Most programmers don't really like extremely long (or for that matter, short) songs because it upsets their clock, or their rotation. Far better that nearly everything falls within the 3-4 minute range. For the handful of longer songs, there are roughly the same number of shorter songs to keep everything in balance.

It started out originally as PDs wanting to protect their song count per hour and realizing that if the long song isn't universally loved, it's on the air twice as long as one that is.

Paul Drew, National PD for RKO, sent out an ultimatum to record companies in 1974: The RKO stations (which, at that time, were still the dominant Top 40 stations in their markets (KHJ, Los Angeles; KFRC, San Francisco; WRKO, Boston; WHBQ, Memphis...only WXLO, New York was trailing a direct competitor) would no longer consider a record longer than 3:30 for airplay.

It made the front page of R&R. The industry was buzzing about it. Artists were furious.

A few weeks later, MCA called Paul. "We've got a new Elton John single (Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me) coming in a couple of weeks. It's more than 5 minutes long. We will not edit it. RKO can have the exclusive on it, but only if you don't edit it, either."

And the 3:30 policy faded into the mists of history when Paul said yes.

As to upsetting rotations, it does. The way I handled it (and I'm talking about songs that are six or seven minutes...roughly the length of two songs) in the 70s...by no means perfect...was that if the song came up as part of a two-song set, it could only air, displacing the other record, if it were a power record (our strongest category). In a three-record or longer set, it could be something other than a power and we'd drop a record in a lower category than it.

 

[michael hagerty]

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Regarding "Shame" - OK you found one good one, but we knew that after WCBS played it, KRTH had it on the same day as well. But how many other stations are playing it? Not in my area most certainly.
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We knew that? I didn't know that. Actually, KRTH has played "Shame" a few times since the beginning of the month. I don't know which if any of those days coincided with WCBS.

We (neither you nor I) don't know how many other stations are playing it.

As for it not being played in your area, I'll say the same thing about Chicago that I said about Joplin, MO. the day before yesterday: You can't use it to judge the format in other cities. You can't use any city to judge the format in other cities. Chicago isn't New York, neither city is L.A. and all three (and dozens more) test locally.

If we started fresh tomorrow, took those 484 Billboard #1 hits of the 1970s and tested them all at once, Donny Osmond's "Puppy Love" isn't going to test well enough to air in New York, Chicago or L.A. It's a crapshoot at best in Salt Lake City, but maybe.

Because every market is different. And if it weren't, then we'd have the "corporate safe list of songs being rammed down our throats from coast to coast".

But we don't.