Perhaps we could have a separate thread on what it means for us about what appears to be the end game for broadcast television (or at least a permanent and breathtaking change for broadcast television). In a way, this may be even desired, imo.
Here's what I think is happening:
- There may be an increasing consensus among the broadcast pros that broadcast may have already entered a permanently declining phase of the business cycle. The Internet has already wrecked havoc on the other media (newspapers, radio, music) and it's only a matter of time before the broadcast guys get their turn.
- The reach of cable, satellite, IPTV and other non-traditional media now rivals what the broadcast medium used to enjoy. It's no longer a money-printing guarantee to own a TV station, as many affiliate station groups have found the hard way.
- In an age of cable channels appealing to specific narrow interests, it looks more and more retro the idea of operating a channel trying to appeal to as many people as possible. The operating word now in television is "demographics" not "audience." More and more shows are tailored to people above a certain income bracket. Why else would they put on anything to do with Alec Baldwin or Kelsey Grammer, even though nobody in my household cares about those two? It seems that the only people the networks care about these days are rich people and dumb people (or ideally to the nets both).
- Also retro is the idea of sweeps, test audiences, juggling hours, cancellations after one episode and crazy people writing letters to the studios to campaign for their favorite TV shows. I think the technology has evolved to the point that almost every show imaginable could be put on the air in some way or another. If you could have channels just on animals, home gardening, chick movies, tough guys with construction equipment, dopey reality series AND the weather (at least until recently) then you could basically put on a channel on just about ANYTHING.
- You have to add to this the slow migration of the major sports properties away from broadcast and into cable. The NBA can no longer be seen on broadcast except for the Finals. TBS has rights to one of the MLB League Championship Series, alternating between the NL and AL, and all of the Divisional Series. The NHL is on Versus. The NFL wants to put all of their games on their own channel eventually when they find a way to be on every household in the country. Even soccer is majorly on cable. In the future look for the sports league cable channels to figure prominently in the picture. I would not be surprised when even the Olympics leave broadcast for good.
In this day and age, broadcast has become old hat. So what conclusion should you make from this? I think anyone with a high school diploma should know where this is headed and that is....
Migration of the Major Broadcast Networks permanently away from broadcast and into cable, satellite, mobile and other new technology
The article doesn't speculate how or when it would happen but this may well be the start of NBC phasing broadcast out from their business. It won't happen immediately but surely. As long as the NBC name still has any cache they'll have to reinvent themselves and revitalize the NBC brand as a provider of content in broadband and mobile. Why follow the old FCC rules on how many hours of shows they're allowed to broadcast when they can go 24/7 airing NBC programming on cable, satellite, mobile, IPTV, etc.? At a certain point, the corps. would just conclude that getting out of the broadcast business serves them better in the long run.
When the other networks realize what has happened they'll just copycat like they do with everything else. I'll predict that once NBC makes that leap, CBS will follow them. FOX and ABC follow behind them. Even Univision and Telefutura will jump on that bandwagon in due time.
What happens to the stations, then? Well, many of them will go out of business without network affiliation. However, I think many station will survive the transition as broadcast still can make some business sense. It'll be like what radio used to be when television started, though. It'll be just another of the "old media" that we hear about when the Internet was growing. Independent producers would have another chance to expose their product to an audience without the constraints of the networks. The problem is that the percentage of people who now get their television over-the-air has diminished greatly in the last thirty years. They'll have to make a choice between going fully to mobile and cable or take their take at reaching that audience and hopefully make money out of them. IPTV may also be of help to the surviving stations in the future once they figure out how to use it to get their programming out via that medium.
