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Conspiracy Theory

Clear Channel cuts hundreds in markets big and small over the last year - including some great air talent who had strong ratings.

The latest edict from CC corporate promises more cuts - even among the sales ranks who generate the revenue in the first place.

Personnel cuts industry-wide reduce radio stations to repetitive, uninspired, commercial-laden programming that may have already lost a generation of listeners.

"HD Radio" is a non-entity for another year because receivers are neither affordable nor easily available.

I could go on, but it would just continue a litany of failure by corporate management from most of the major players in the radio industry.

Are they really that stupid, or are there ulterior motives at work?

The digital age has turned use of the electromagnetic spectrum upside down. Digital signals no longer require the bandwidth allocations of analog signals. Higher frequencies can carry many high bit-rate digital data streams in the space required by a single analog signal. Cellular and other telecommunications companies bid billions for bandwidth allocations (see more here). Those who own bandwidth will be able to lease access to content providers of all sorts.

Television has been forced into the digital age. A year from now, analog broadcasting will cease, and a chunk of the electromagnetic spectrum - including a large chunk just below FM broadcast frequencies - will revert to the FCC. New technology, like LMDS (see more here), will revolutionize how information flows in America.

It is just possible that the death of commercial radio would be welcomed by some corporate and/or governmental entities? After all, the coming of Internet radio receivers will probably make broadcasting as we know it obsolete anyway, right? Not only that, but digital streams can carry content information that would get the FCC - and the government - off the hook for monitoring obscenity, indecency, etc. As they do with satellite, they could put the onus on the content providers and consumers to control access to data streams. It's virtually impossible to control content on the millions of existing AM and FM receivers. It would be no problem to control access to data streams on a new generation of receivers.

In short, are the suits at corporate that stupid, or are they "dumb like a fox"? Is there a deal brewing that would let them control use of the electromagnetic spectrum allocated to them if the current analog model become unprofitable? How incredibly profitable can that electromagnetic spectrum be if they can use it for data instead of analog broadcasting?

Is that a rat I smell, or is my imagination running away with itself?
 
That's pretty "Orwellian" there Rox, but I'm sure stranger ideas of been cooked up.

Some of these once proud companies have dug themselves a pretty deep hole, and the pressure from many different sources has to be intense for a quick solution that I'm not sure exists that we can currently dream up.
 
The men and women running radio stations and broadcast groups are not stupid. Me thinks they have a pretty good idea of what's on the horizon.

As much as we on these boards question the decision making of CEO's and COO's, they deserve some respect. They're not infallible, but neither are they morons, although they sometimes make moronic decisions. OK, OK, OK... I can hear the guffaws building. The resident board contrarian gone to the dark side.

The clock may indeed be ticking on AM and FM as we know it. Parallels can be drawn as to how FM radio changed the landscape in the 70's and 80's. Technology will not be denied. Technology, especially by the young, will be embraced just as we 45+ year old men and women, for so many reasons, embraced FM.

MP3's and cell phones capable of receiving 100 channels of music, talk, pod casts and pictures might just a swell be today's "FM Revolution."

The spectrum between 535 and 1700kHz and 88.1 and 107.9 MHz may in fact be worth more as real estate for zeros and ones. And the real real estate that holds towers for three, four, five and six tower AM directional arrays may be more valuable if sold to developers.

As 8-tracks, cassettes, CD's and MP3's made vinyl a collector's item, so it is likely that "zeros and ones" will make analogue a thing of the past. I'm not prepared to declare terrestrial radio DOA, I'm simply saying the patient needs intensive care if he's to survive and even then, is there any joy in surviving if there's no quality of life?

The advances in technology can at times be unsettling to some people, including me. We here especially love our AM, we love DX'ing (when not obliterated by iBoc), we love those great personalties about whom we so often write. And oh how we enjoy lamenting "the way it was back in the day."

Sir Roxalot's post provides food for thought (and grist for the mill.) Thanks for the links,

It is not my intent to excuse or condone staff firings and layoffs, voice-tracking, syndication and programming mediocrity which seem pervasive. I do not deny that there is a certain sameness in programming whether the format is Country, Urban, Classic Rock, CHR, AC or News-Talk.

What I'm saying is, there's a reason for what's happening on the radio, on your favorite radio station, if in fact you have one and you're still listening. What's been going on since 1995 does not bode well for the men and women working in the news rooms, productions rooms and studios, and on the street where customers and clients large and small aren't eager to spend money advertising on radio at this time and as we know all too well, advertising is what the business is all about.

-9-
 
Clear Channel makes CBS look good and that's not easy!

I see a big lack of any goals on the part of management and ownership to actually serve the markets where they own stations.

Radio isn't needed for music, there are many other places to get it. The internet being just one place. Even talk and information formats aren't immune, again there is the internet with it's podcasts and social networking.

Kids today want more control over their media. With iPods, computers and the internet they can have it all custom made for them where and when they want it. Radio can't compete playing the same 100 songs and tired liners isn't going to do it.

However I don't think the owners are running it in the ground on purpose but I do admit they are doing a good job of doing just that.
 
Here is Beantown Entercomm could be the new CC.
 
Man this board seems to attract some amazing minds. SirRoxalot brings up:

It is just possible that the death of commercial radio would be welcomed by some corporate and/or governmental entities?

Wow..good possibility there really. The fat bandwith available here could indeed become a garden of digital delights with all types of new technologies. Do the current corporate types "know something" maybe. It sure seems strange that all of this seems to be crashing and burning much faster than anyone thought.

There will always be a need for audio advertising on some level, so many of us can stay safe if we can afford to cut our costs and make deals on a level playing field. Then Element9 said:

the real real estate that holds towers for three, four, five and six tower AM directional arrays may be more valuable if sold to developers

MAY be more vaulable? I should think so. This is ESPECIALLY true for TV stations. All of the expense in power consumption and real estate supporting a massive tower to transmit television signals is ludicrous. Who do you know that watches TV over the air anymore? I am sure there are some, but most cable companies and many DSL providers can provide much better television signals at less cost to the viewer. It could be essentially cheaper to buy digital TVs for the few who watch OTA television and sell the stick and transmitter. Then just provide programming over the fiber cable, or upload it to the DishNet or DirecTV bird.

AM Radio's need for multi-towers seems like a lot of expense for only a handful of listeners in some cases..and in SOME cases NONE! The only operators that will maintain a solid listener base are those who program compelling programming on a local level, and sell spots at a reasonable rate to LOCAL advertisers..They wil buy time! And listeners will respond if they are delivered to the client as the result of compelling LOCAL programming.

Chuck Harder and Art Bell might have been right after all.
 
Very good points!

And one really scary thought...

"Art Bell might have been right after all."

Keeps me awake at night with nothing else to listen to but George Norry.

Kal
 
Keeps me awake at night with nothing else to listen to but George Norry.

Some day, broadcasters, may (that word invokes such a speculative air frought with possibilities) wake up and realize that the all night show isn't a vast wasteland to be filled by conspiracy theorists and nutcakes delivered by satellite. Instead, it may give way to live, local entertainers who, "in safe harbor" could explore the possibilities of communication and entertainment. I'm not advocating serial "F" bombers. If nothing else, it may once again serve as a grooming room for morning and afternoon drive. Then again, with the "no new hires" edict of late, it may be further relagated to (FX: Drake timpani) Allllllll Colon Blow..... Alllllll The Time!

-9-
 
Element9 said:
The spectrum between 535 and 1700kHz and 88.1 and 107.9 MHz may in fact be worth more as real estate for zeros and ones. And the real real estate that holds towers for three, four, five and six tower AM directional arrays may be more valuable if sold to developers.

This is exactly what happened to 1470 WBIG Greensboro, NC in the late '80's. With nowhere else to relocate the directional array for the 5KW heritage radio station that had been around since 1926, the transmitter was turned off and the towers came down one day. The real estate it was standing on became more valuable than the station license. Today it's a shopping center.
 
Mike Sheridan said:
Radio isn't needed for music, there are many other places to get it. The internet being just one place. Even talk and information formats aren't immune, again there is the internet with it's podcasts and social networking.

Kids today want more control over their media. With iPods, computers and the internet they can have it all custom made for them where and when they want it. Radio can't compete playing the same 100 songs and tired liners isn't going to do it.

OTOH, going back to a programming model that may have worked 30 years ago (live, local "personality" djs) isn't likely to fly today any more than Ford bringing back the Pinto & Galaxy 500 is gonna return them to a 25% market share. No matter how large your playlist is, you still can't compete with somone's mp3 player that only has songs they like on it. It's a new generation, I think it's absurd to think that they'll want to be entertained/informed the same way their parents were. There are a lot more choices today, and radio isn't gonna dominate like it once did.

That doesn't mean radio's going away anytime soon. It isn't. Yeah, the younger, tech-savvy/gadget lovers see radio as quaint & old-fashioned, but that doesn't mean everyone does. There are lots of people who either can't be bothered to find & download songs & create a playlist or find it too complicated. Witness the number of VCRs in the 80s & 90s blinking 12:00. Radio is simple...you turn it on and you get sounds. Maybe it isn't hip enough for today's generation, but not everyone cares if they're hip or not.

Yes, there is gonna be a thinning of the herd. The 4-tower AMs that don't bill enough to pay the electric bill...how long will they be subsidized in a tanking economy? The shoehorned-in Class A 80-90s may have a little longer shelf life, but no one's gonna carry a non-performing FM either. The well-programmed stations on signals with decent market coverage will be around for quite some time to come.
 
Actually when one takes into consideration the history of radio one might remember a certain RCA president who stole the patents for TV and FM radio, then sabatoged FM radio to protect AM radio and became indirectly responsible for the death of FM radio's inventor, Sir Roxalot's theory might have some credibility...

Of course, people like the Mays are are pathetic wimps when compared to the ruthless, heartless, iron-fisted, in bed with power monster that is known as Sarnoff.
 
Bones, radio??? It's already gone. What we have today in many places is an iPod on a transmitter.

As for those with the blinking VCR's they are the upper demos that radio doesn't want to begin with.

I don't think the 4 tower money pits should be subsidized, turn it off or sell it to someone who can make money with it. I also think stations should be more than the radio equivalant of QVC. A radio license is granted by the fedaral government to serve the community of license. Yes we want it to make money but there is some responsibility to go with that license. I know, I know.... "it sounds quaint and old fashioned."
 
dustintv said:
Actually when one takes into consideration the history of radio one might remember a certain RCA president who stole the patents for TV and FM radio, then sabatoged FM radio to protect AM radio and became indirectly responsible for the death of FM radio's inventor, Sir Roxalot's theory might have some credibility...

Of course, people like the Mays are are pathetic wimps when compared to the ruthless, heartless, iron-fisted, in bed with power monster that is known as Sarnoff.

All very true! It's the only reason I'm glad that RCA doesn't exist today. His legacy company gobbled up by GE and taken apart.

Like it or not we have Sarnoff to thank or blame for the business side of radio. He is the one who thought of the radio music box aspect and commercials. Still there was a certain amount of public service required in those days which is missing today. I'm not just talking about the boring stuff that nobody listens to but actual shows they called self sustaining.
 
Great post, SirRoxalot.

All valid thoughts, and all possible.

Generally speaking, the only thing I would add to this thread is that a conspiracy is less likely than market forces to be causing these problems. People are less likely stupid, than they are simply stuck in the roles which their job description mandates.

My favorite quote, again:

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.
Upton Sinclair US novelist (1878 - 1968)

I first supposed in 1997 or so to a Microsoft Exec that eventually Broadcast Bandwidth would be recalled for Data fill in transmissions. He looked at me kind of funny.

Today, Microsoft is in tests with the FCC to use TV Spectrum for just that purpose. Everyone knows the car radio gets replaced by a web enabled device, and that single channel simple analog is a waste of space.

What none of us (or our publicly traded companies) can predict is the exact curve and timeline of this transition. The mandate of most buggy whip companies is to squeeze every last dime out of the buggy whip business.

Another good analogy is typewriters. Underwood, Smith- Corona, Brother... these guys couldn't save the typewriter business. IBM had a great typewriter, but figured out how to deliver the new medium: word processing, and finally computers. Few old schoolers make the transition, and it requires huge capital.

Here's a pretty amazing book on why Radio's public companies can't seem to do the obvious:

http://www.amazon.com/Number-Quarterly-Earnings-Corrupted-Corporate/dp/0375508805

Note that the introduction is written by Mark Cuban. Yeah, that guy who sold Broadcast.Com to Yahoo for a reputed 6 Billion Dollars. Anybody realized that kind of money off streaming yet? I didn't think so.
 
JohnGault said:
Today, Microsoft is in tests with the FCC to use TV Spectrum for just that purpose. Everyone knows the car radio gets replaced by a web enabled device, and that single channel simple analog is a waste of space.

Speaking of Microsoft. Did any of you catch the news today? This is from the front page of this website:

Microsoft + Yahoo = very, very large streaming radio operation

"That side of the proposed $44.6 billion purchase of Yahoo! won't get much notice in the consumer press - but both Microsoft and Yahoo are major presences in online radio, and combining them would create a juggernaut. Microsoft's using this deal to take aim at another juggernaut, however: Google, and its highly popular search business (plus the ad revenues that go with it). Microsoft and Yahoo discussed a possible merger in 2006 and 2007, but Yahoo decided to stay independent. This morning's surprise offer from Microsoft is worth $31 a share - a whopping 62% more than "YHOO" closed at yesterday."
 
I read about this deal and looked at the number about three times to make sure it was right. $46 Billion. Words don't do it justice. I had to write out 46,000,000,000... just like in grade school, with Sister Henrietta leaning over my shoulder, aluminum ruler at the ready: Units, tens, hundreds, thousands... and on and on. I shook my head and chuckled because I thought about how Mel, Fields the Younger and Elder, Farid and Hogan and the rest of the Princes of Broadcasting must look at that number with envy. It's simply stunning. In high school, we used to laugh at the kids with pocket protecters... guess these days they're having a good laugh at guys who put up dry wall and inhale dust from plaster board.
 
I'd suggest that broadcast magnates are more envious of the $40.6 annual million profit posted by Exxon Mobile Corporation or Chevron Corporation's $18.8 million profit. Now that's money.
 
That would be $4.6-Billion, and $18.7-Billion, Andrew.

Profits from crude oil went way up. Profit from refined products - i.e. gasoline - went down.

All I know is that I hit $60.00 for a fillup last week, and I heard a report that gas prices will RISE this summer.
 
Ooops...

Fixing typo:

That would be $40.6-Billion, and $18.7-Billion, Andrew.

Profits from crude oil went way up. Profit from refined products - i.e. gasoline - went down.

All I know is that I hit $60.00 for a fillup last week, and I heard a report that gas prices will RISE this summer.
 
Re: Ooops...

SirRoxalot said:
All I know is that I hit $60.00 for a fillup last week, and I heard a report that gas prices will RISE this summer.

You are correct. I've heard $3.50-ish. Not because of gas shortages, but because of shortages of gas additives.
 
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