Could Christmas actually hurt B?

[undertheradar]

So, the past two PPM months note B105 with 476,000 cume 6+, highest in the market. If the meters are really measuring B's audience accurately now [huge boost in-office] why even risk changing the format? Is it possible that "holiday B" currently could be cuming much lower audience levels than "AC B," because of the format change? After all, all prior PPM research in other markets indicates the all-Christmas format builds as we near the holiday. It's not a big jump at the front end of the switch; rather weeks out from the holiday fewer people are interested. How much more cume would B expect to gain above half a mil with holiday chimes??

So, could B actually driving away its own new-found, massive cume to competitors early on in the holiday season? And, potentially even more damning, how many listeners return to "AC" B after the holidays as P2's who were originally P1s? How many in-office radios won't tune back to "AC" B, thereby jettisoning the P3s, P4s, even P5s that helping build this historically high cume for the station?

Could Christmas actually hurt B? Let debate begin!

 

[RDO]

As a listener who prefers AC music, they lost me for the next month.

Even though I'm a Christian, I don't want to hear wall to wall Christmas music. But then, it shouldn't matter to them, because I don't have a people meter.

I'm not a B P1, because I switch around. So, your theory about that the P3s, P4s and P5s may move away during this time period.

Eh.

 

[BobOnTheJob]

What were PPM markets where an AC went Christmas last season showing?

 

[bigtime]

Some people like Christmas music even in July, others would rather not hear it at all until the week of Christmas. The members of the second group have likely left the frequency for now.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

I didn't record any numbers, and Radio-Info's numbers only go back four books, but a number of all-christmas stations did very well in PPM markets last year. A bit of research shows that all-Christmas WBEB/Philly registered a 17 share. In the current PPM book, WBEB was at a 6.7. Also, WLTW/NYC was at a share 12 with a cume of 7 million. The October 2010 book sees WLTW at a 6 share cumeing 4 million.

Double your share for a book? Can't hurt!

 

[bigtime]

All-Christmas has never really been a big winner for any Indy station except for maybe 93.9. That was before PPM though, and at times in the past there have been three stations doing it at once.

 

[undertheradar]

Bob-Job:

Good question, and plays right to my point. Here's the November PPMs [mid-Oct to mid-Nov] just released for a number of major markets, and how the top AC stations are doing [6+ share]:

NY: WLTW 5.9
WWFS 3.4

LA: KOST 4.6

CHI: WVAZ 5.1 [urban AC]

SF: KOIT 4.8

HOU: KODA 6.7

PHI: WBEB 7.1

These AC's are all near the top of the 6+ rankers in all of their respective markets. And I'm certain these aren't isolated cases; these are just the most recent numbers available pre-christmas and the random markets reporting.

And here's the kicker - YXB has had consecutive 8.4's the past 60 days. That's market share significantly higher than most AC's in the country, and drills to my point. Can moving to Christmas actually HURT B105? Do they have anywhere to go, but DOWN??

 

[PTBoardOp94]

The fact that WYXB has an 8.4 now as opposed to the 5.9 that WLTW has is irrelevant. The pie is split more ways in New York than it is in Indianapolis, with 20 stations registering a mere 0.1 in the current NYC book.

 

[bigtime]

True, there are fewer competitors in Indy than NYC. WYXB's AC & oldies competition went away, leaving them a much more clear path. How long until another Indy frequency switches to AC?

 

[undertheradar]

PT - I understand your point. There are many, many variables from market to market.

I still stand by my original question though - can a station with such substantial audience levels for its normal programming actually gain anything from going Christmas? B105's 8.4 share measurement is one of the largest radio audiences in the market - is there any upside to changing your AC programming to wall-to-wall holiday music? Are you expecting a jump to a 9, 10, 11 share or more?
That's what my original question was.

The research I noted in an earlier post was in response another post wondering what other market AC's were doing..that's all.

 

[N_D_Radioguy]

is there any upside to changing your AC programming to wall-to-wall holiday music?

Yes - money.

The annual buys are already decided for 2011, or will be finalized in the next couple of weeks. Either way, those buys are likely based on a four-book average that ended with Fall 2010. The Christmas numbers won't affect those annuals.

This is, however, substantial money to be found from the extra "This hour of holiday favorites brought to you by..." billboard sponsorships. Plus, B will snag a few advertisers who just want to be part of the Christmas music. This station will be sold-out -- maybe even with extra avails sold -- while others are having trouble filling inventory.

And let's be real. Even the folks who aren't ready for Christmas tunes can't be rolling their eyes too much; they have to expect Christmas music by now. It's not as if they flipped on Halloween [as one station did a few years back]. Those very few who will flip away will be back. Add to that plenty of extra exposures because of stores and offices that move from other stations to get the holiday music. Don't forget word of mouth getting you more individual exposures. You gotta figure at least some of those new folks will stay come January 1.

I have a much harder time seeing a downside.