Sure he's still number one, but his placement on second-tier AMs and startup FM's has to be hurting his numbers. A few examples:WGST Atlanta -- perennial also-ranWFLF Orlando -- dittoBaltimore -- moving from WBAL to WCBMThe Baltimore situation is a real comedown. WCBM is a third-tier dinosaur, with creaky hosts who've been on the air since dirt was new, weekday evening brokered shows and other crud. It's the KDWN of the East.
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Could Rush Lose Number One?
- Thread starter smedge2006
- Start date
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fred flintstone
Guest
The question should be "when will he" - not "can he."Nobody stays on top forever in this business.He's been doing the same act for 22 years (18 years in national syndication). Not only has the act gotten stale, Rush does not seem as fresh as he once was. Rush has more money than he needs. He could walk away any time. Total audience share for AM radio continues to decline.Audience demographics for AM radio and for talk radio continue to age.Rush ushered in the current era of nationally-syndicated political talk. We are hearing rumblings that this era may be ending. The more successful talk stations do LOCAL talk with hosts not so locked into political ideology. WBAL dropping Rush is more due to the format he represents than the show itself.
...he started nationally on a string of one-lung daytimers, he may as well go out that way...
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fred flintstone
Guest
Not quite true. He started with some 20 stations including a fair share of blow torches. His affiliate list grew gradually but steadily the first few years. His syndicator was selective in lining up stations. Many affiliates started him out on delay in the evening or used "best of" shows on the weekends. As the show demonstrated its pull, he got more live clearances. But his show upgraded its time slot much more than it changed stations.Rush is many things. An idiot is not one of them. For all neo-cons' talk about the left-wing media, the people who bounce around local radio tend to have opinions much like Rush expressed starting out (before he became an administration shill). He combined those views (usually reserved for bull sessions among radio people) with his talents as a top 40 jock.Ultimajock said:
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artmorris
Guest
Love him or hate him, Rush one-handedly rescued AM radio when it was almost dead in the late 80's.If Rush hadn't come along when he did, the AM band would be nearly silent by now.My opinion, to which I am entitled, is that Rush needs to be more entertaining. Over the years, he's become the victim of his own success. And, the deal with his hearing played a big part in that. It's hard to be a Top-40 jock when you can't really hear what you're doing.Not to mention that the audience is matured as well. We're older, and a lot less tolerant of silliness than 20-years ago. Parodies aren't as funny as they used to be.If I were him, I'd set a date to quit (like Johnny Carson did) and go out on TOP!Art Morris
Notwithstanding Rush's contribution to the growth of talk and it's impact on "saving the AM" band, if he were to quit tomorrow, within a month the 500 plus talk radio stations carrying his show would adjust and carry on with some other right wing blow hard. I am sure that Premiere has several scenarios in place to deal with demise of Rush. The good news is that when Rush moves on, there will probably be an increase in local talk, as major talk stations try to lock in the high ratings they are currently getting from the early local talker.Remember, the majority of stations that carry Rush also have a strong local talker leading in to his show. Despite this ideal situation, and the fact that Rush is carried on the strongest AM talker in most markets, his ratings have declined in the last half dozen years and his spot time has lost about half of its value.When Rush moves on, there will not be a meltdown like we've seen with CBS stations trying to replace Howard Stern. Six months after Stern's departure, "Free FM" stations are getting shares that are only fraction of what they got for Stern's show. They are also spending a fortune to try to program this format. According to CBS President Rob Barnett they have hired over 30 hosts to incumbate the new format. The same will happen when Phil Hendres hangs is up in about a month.Six months after Rush leaves the air, his time period will continue with virtually no ratings lose. In fact, if local talk starts appearing on former Rush stations, ratings will probably increase.
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awaken
Guest
Rush's declining numbers are also due to the move to alternative news sites. He is a true success story, hate him or love him. Americans more and more are realizing something is VERY wrong in our country. They are catching on to the left vs right / liberal vs conservative, (R) vs (D) paradigm is a lie. Americans are waking up due to "alternative media" sources. That is why the BIG DOGS in media and government want to regulate or shut down the internet.
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fred flintstone
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Great analysis.If Al Franken leaves Air America Radio to seek public office, would you expect a comparable increase in local progressive talk programming in his time slot (at least in larger markets)?barooosk said:
If Al Franken left Air America and was replaced by Thom Hartmann, there would no signficant change in AAR's ratings for the time period. However, the loss of Al Franken as cheerleader for the network. (It seems he's on the road about once a month) would be a factor.fred flintstone said:
In Atlanta, where else does he have to go? WSB? That's Clark Howard's flagship station. Every other talk station in town has a signal with the power of an electric toothbrush. Even with the awful overall performance of WGST, its signal during the daytime is massive, blanketing the majority of the state and some surrounding states. It's the nighttime signal that's bad.
This is a non-issue.Rush is carried on over 500 stations. The vast majority are the best stations in the market. All of his coverage is in pattern and most major market stations offer a high rated local host as a lead-in. Rush's alleged distribution problems in Baltimore and Atlanta are about a troublesome to him as a cyst on his butt.
I believe that we are on the verge of a major pendulum swing in radio or should I say paradigm shift in radio programming.Politics aside............these talkers have had their day.They have had the numbers but now the numbers are not that strong andthey don't give the stations what they need in this XM age.....the local factor.I believe that bold and brave programmers such as the guys at WBAL are leadingthe way.( By the way....I loved the analysis of WCBM that one poster gave here....very nice.....and true ......I'd love to buy it and turn it into a radio station)So Rush, Sean, Gordon and all the rest ...enjoy it while you can...........
Rush may have one thing that saves him longer than other syndicated talk show hosts: his time slot.Where would local stations put local talent if they can't do it 24 or at least 18 hours a day? In drive times. What hours are not a part of drive time, no matter what time zone you are in? Noon to 3 pm Eastern. It's 9 to noon Pacific. Then again, given what I hear about what Rush/Premiere charges for this show ...
"Remember, the majority of stations that carry Rush also have a strong local talker leading in to his show. Despite this ideal situation, and the fact that Rush is carried on the strongest AM talker in most markets, his ratings have declined in the last half dozen years and his spot time has lost about half of its value."Not really. Glenn Beck is on a lot of stations leading into Rush. In the tiny markets, there's a slew of lead-ins, from Boortz to Ingraham to Beck to (formerly) Snow. On the west coast, sure, but that's because he follows west coast AMD. There are a lot more Rush affiliates east of the Mississippi."They have had the numbers but now the numbers are not that strong andthey don't give the stations what they need in this XM age.....the local factor."I'm not seeing too many XM subscribers. And seeing that I'm one of them (and I subscribed mostly for the talk), the talk sucks."So Rush, Sean, Gordon and all the rest ...enjoy it while you can..........."I think Gordon stopped enjoying it a long time ago.
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drtylawndre
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I think he has about 5 years left on top.....
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Nertz!
Guest
There are many other right wing idiots who like to make a fool of themself out there to replace him. They are a dime a dozen.
A little reality check here...First of all, I agree that Rush's act has gotten a bit stale and lacks the edge he once had. I'm by no means Dittohead. I disaggee with Rush on the issues about 80%, but I still find his show to be a fascinating listen.The statement was made that AM audiences are declining and aging. After a precipitous drop from the late 70's through the 80's AM cumes and shares have leveled off. I can't speak for the country as a whole, but here's a look at Men 25-54 (the key Rush demo) in this middle-America Top 25 market (unnamed so hopefully we won't get tagged for illegally using Arbitron Numbers.From Fall 1998 to Fall 2005, total AM share has increased.... from an 18.4 to a 22.2. Cume ratings (the percentage of persons listening to an AM station at least once a week has been virtually flat... 41.5 to 42.2.At the same time, Rush's numbers on our local affiliate went from a 7.9 share in '98 to a 13.6 in '05. Cume ratings were also up... 8.9 to 10.0.Both the rumors of the death of AM radio and Rush have been exaggerated... at least in this particular market.Now someone also mentioned that Rush is being relegated to "dog" stations or start-up FM's in some markets. I ask the question.... why would a start-up FM want to grab Rush away from a competitor (or even put him on) if they didn't feel that Rush was an asset. Yes, there are some markets where Rush is not playing well. That will happen. In the case of Atlanta, Rush is up against a strongly entrenched line-up on WSB, including another legend, Neil Bortz. If Rush has past his prime, one wonders why more other major stations (KFI, KGO, WJR, WLS, WABC, to name a few) haven't either cancelled Rush or relegated him to a weak-sister station. Finally, don't even mention Al Franken and Rush Limbaugh in the same sentence. That's like comparing the New York Yankees to a Single-A team. Politically, I agree with Franken much more than Rush, but as a radio guy, Rush GETS IT! He's an entertainer first and his political agenda comes second. Franken is all about the agenda. The irony is that Franken is a really talented and funny guy, but he come off as a mean-spirited apologist for the left within the format of his radio show.Rush did, indeed usher in the current genre of politically-oriented talk shows and the fact that he holds his own after 18 years against a host of Rush wannabees (many that got their start as a guest host at the "Golden EIB Microphone)" is a testament to his talent. Rush's star may have faded a bit, but I wouldn't write him off yet. "I think he has about 5 years left on top....."? Well that will add up to 23 years.... about 23 years longer than 99.9% of those in the biz. Not too shabby!!!!
KGO doesn't carry Rush. As far as who will take Rush's place, I think Sean Hannity is the heir apparent. If he moves his show up from 3 to 12 noon EST, then it would make it easier for his affiliates (especially the ones in the EST) to pick up local talkers. If not, maybe Bill O'Reilly? His show runs at the same time as Rush.
Howard's replacements are getting shares about 20% of what Howard was getting six months after his departure.There will be no replacement for Phil Hendrie when he hangs it up next weekWhen Rush hangs it up or meets his demise, his replacement -- most likely Sean Hannity -- will probably get about 80% to 90% of his shares within one ratings period. The problem will be finding a replacement for number two, Hannity, if he moves up.
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