Nathan Obral said:
A better example of this is the Washington, DC AM market, where all but two or three AM signals in that market have no ratings and either all-syndicated, brokered or ethnic formats. Aside from devotees of the AM radio dial over there, no one knows that those stations remotely exist. And even out of the two good AM signals, one (sports WTEM) is nowhere close to reaching the top 15, and the other (talk WMAL) is in the top 10, but is all-syndicated from noon until 5AM. The most powerful AM signal, once home to once top-rated all-news WTOP, now has a niche format in government-related news and draws minuscule ratings.
WTOP managed to skyrocket in all of the youth demos after leaving the AM dial for good in 2006. Once trading spots for #1 or #2 at AM/1500, they've been a solid #1 ever since then. That was what started the AM station-moving-to-FM or simulcast-with-a-rimshot trend in the first place.
The Washington DC market is actually
not a very good example to use. That's because ground conductivity is notoriously bad in that region, rendering even 50 kw WTOP (which is at a higher frequency to begin with) hard to listen to in many DC suburbs. If you've spent any time in the Washington area, you know that the suburbs now sprawl well into (and beyond) Loudoun, Stafford and Farquier Counties in VA and that they spill out north and east (respectively) into the Frederick and Annapolis areas in MD. With the horrible ground conductivity in that area, WTOP has long underperformed its potential - its signal is not even "local grade" as close in as Reston or Chantilly, VA.
They initially tried to address this issue using other AM signals (particularly 820 in Frederick, MD) and a small class A rimshot FM to fill in the gaps. That worked to an extent, but again did not deliver as much audience as the format is capable of delivering. Finally, Bonneville blew up 103.5 and installed the WTOP news format on a full market stick and that did the trick.
To compare that situation with what is happening in Chicago does not really fit. Even WIND gets out better around Chicago than WTOP's former home at 1500 did around the DC area. WSCR, WGN, WBBM and even WLS are stronger still. None have critical signal issues that WTOP had. And, Chicago's various non-directional AMs remain quite successful.
Also, on a different note, the NFL has proven itself to be a great fit for classic rock and active rock formats that appeal to young males. Given that the games are no more than once a week and that they attract much the same audience as the likes of NFL team flagships like KCFX Kansas City, KIOZ San Diego, WDVE Pittsburgh, KITS San Francisco (for the Raiders, though the more locally popular '9ers are on 1050 am), etc. The Pats used to be on rocker WBCN (former flagship of the "Patriots Rock Radio Network"), but were moved when CBS Radio blew up that station and introduced sports talker WBZ-FM. For the NFL, it's all about positioning and you mainly see games on FM installed on rockers and almost never on urban contemporary or CHR formatted stations. This is not a very good indicator to use when talking about the relative health of AM radio for this reason.
Now, the movement of talk to FM is a different story - but again, this is still usually happening in markets where the format was not on a 50 kw blowtorch. Given the still strong ratings of solid-signal AMs in places like New York, Detroit, Boston, San Francisco, Philly, and yes Chicago - I'd say that the AM properties with excellent 50 kw signals that cover their respective markets have quite a bit more than 20 years of viability left in them. Weaker signals - especially graveyarders and what I like to call the FCC shoehorns - are indeed more likely to go away within 20 years. They just aren't viable.
AM would do best with a few well-spaced strong signals. The overcrowding of the band with tons of weak, limited appeal signals is creating a "low tide" for the entire band that is gradually sinking all ships (metaphorically speaking). Yet the FCC is still licensing an ever increasing number of signals on the AM band. If the band dies, it is at their hands - and not merely because of the progression of technology.
