redneckriviera said:
Oh, where to start?
Jeff, you asked about Pensacola. Yes, it's more like a normal market than almost any other on the Gulf Coast. Because of the military and an array of light industry P'cola doesn't rely so much on touristas. And it's not quite as "over-radio'ed" as PCB or FWB--but it still has more signals than it needs. Plus 5 TV sticks and a very strong newspaper. WXBM does extremely well (around $5 million a year???) but the rest do less than half of that, with several just scraping by.
Tibbs, you know that selling price is either a cashflow multiple or a "Greater Fool" number. It's not impossible to imagine a 50-kw FM in any of these markets doing, say, $1.2 million in revenue and $600K in BCF... then getting an 11.5 multiple. Or (more likely) having some dumbass Yankee falling in love with Destin and paying WAYYYYYYYY more than it's worth. If I recall correctly, that's happened once or twice already...
As far as Island 106 goes, yeah--the 12 share (or whatever it was) was more BS than not. But it's been up in that range before, so it's not SO far out of range. Just on the high side of reality for that property.
You are so right on all of this RNR!
Like real estate - in the 30-A area. You have to get in on the beginning of a wave (ha!) to make any money. I paid way under $1 M for a 100kw signal when it
was #2 in the market and billing less than a $1 M. It never got above that and to this day it never has that I know of. I think it's 100% sure, still. After
expenses it netted less than $100,000. But, the big boys $got$ the FCC to $allow$ more station ownership in a market and the buying frenzy started. They
didn't really look at multiples or numbers, they looked at signal strength (or potential to move the signal) and they paid way to much. The Multiple was
between 40 and 50. That being said, I never made any real money or lost that much, and because they came in and paid to much, it allowed me to be
liquid quickly. I bought beach houses and played the flipping game. What turned out to be a potentially horrible nightmare was salvaged by a little group
out of Texas. I'll always be greatful. Timing, location and timing are everything. I still think timing, mainly made the difference, although certainly FWB/Destin's
growth was just beginning to really go through the roof in the mid-90's. Still, though I wouldn't jump on any station over $1.2-$1.5M with a good to great
signal today unless I was writing them a check (debt-free) and planning on selling ads myself (no way) and knowing that everyday would be stressful and
you'd be treated like a vulture because of all the salesmen on the streets selling dead air. Yuck. I cringe just typing this. Still, I happened to do great because
of timing. Ron Hale should have done fine, but he took another course. Why, I dunno. I guess that's just him. You pay for it in health, stress, shortened
life and financially for sure. I won't beat Hale up. I feel sorry for him, actually because he'll pay. Tom Birch did a similar thing with Wave and he's had it
rough ever since. A lot of that comes back to haunt you quickly. Mark Carter from Seabreeze is just the opposite. A world class fantastic friend to this day.
Other "raydio people" in Deausttin laugh at him, but he focuses on his game and screws with their minds because I guess he is so ethical, honest and just
himself that most in the industry cannot fathom those traits (sorry to say.) The Yankee concept is a good one. The best part is the attitudes of arrogance and superiority that you get from radio execs using other peoples money and home buyers on the beach using bank money and thinking they are so damned
cool for paying 10 times the price of land or houses than 5-10 years ago and the radio gig is no different. Suckers for sure. And there is always someone
willing to take advantage of the situation.